Double shootout hand

[SGS]

We are in the first level of the double shootout. I still have my 1500 starting chips as does the BB. Limper has around 1700 and has been playing in my opinion pretty aggressively and has made some pretty large raises PF from the limited time we have been playing. Anyways on to the hand I have A2 in the SB and complete behind 3 limpers. BB checks.

FLOP A28 (2 daimonds)

I pot it at 100. BB calls as does the villian limper.

TURN- 3o

I bet 500. BB calls as does villian limper

RIVER- 5d

Checked to the limper who bets 400. Call or fold? Thanks in advance.

SGS

[0evg0]

Wow, having a hard time deciding here.

You fold and your at t880 - more than enough to come back with a few decent plays. Call and you're down to t480 - assuming BB isn't on a c/r. I want to say you make the crying call just because of the pot (60+300+1500+400+?)= over t2200, but I'm giving this up. The point isn't to get the biggest stack, it's to stay alive.

I'm going to guess this is a much easier decision than I think it is, interested to see responses.

As for PF/Flop/Turn, I don't see how you could've played it any differently. I think pushing on the Turn would've been a huge mistake. You got as many of their chips in as possible and sometimes the odds just don't like you.

Yeah, I convinced myself this is a fold.

[DireWolf]

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The point isn't to get the biggest stack, it's to stay alive.


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I think its the opposite. Its winner take all, you have to get the biggest stack.

[SGS]

I agree with this 81st=2nd barring a deal.

SGS

[PrayingMantis]

If limper is aggressive, why not check/raise flop?

Flopping 2p (top-bottom) with a garbage ace from SB in a multiway unraised pot is a tricky situation, especially if people are calling large bets with position on you. When they both call your 500 turn bet, well, your hand looks pretty bad, IMO, especially since you say one of them is agro - that's unless you are dealing with 2 monkeys (both have to be monkeys). I assume this is a $160 DS, some of the 1st table players are sometimes pretty terrible (qualifying through $10 sats or whatever), so it's hard to be confident of where you're standing. The 400 river bet by limper looks like something that wants a call, obviously. I think I would have played it differently, but it depends on my feel of the table and players, and how horrible I think they are.

BTW it's sometimes important to notice and specify if the ace on the flop is one of the diamonds, and what suit is your ace.

[schwza]

what position is the limper in? how many other limpers were in the pot first? is the Ad on the board?

i count t1800 on the river. i thank the villain for not pushing and making my decision difficult and i call in about a nanosecond. too much money out there to fold. villain is too likely getting greedy with AJ.

[PrayingMantis]

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i count t1800 on the river. i thank the villain for not pushing and making my decision difficult and i call in about a nanosecond. too much money out there to fold. villain is too likely getting greedy with AJ.


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I think this is somewhat optimistic, and I don't really agree with your the logic here. In some situations, I will be actually more willing to call all-in than this 400 bet. So the fact that it's not all-in does not necessarily make it for an easier decision. Another thing is that there's a very big difference between having 900 or 500 at the end of this hand. How many times will you see villain betting here with AJ and not checking behind, after all this action? what other hands aside of some crappy aces that were played poorly do you see here? what about BB who is closing the action (or opening it again) behind you? isn't it possible that BB (a bad player probably) was slowplaying a better hand, and kept slowplaying it stupidly also on the river? Not a great chance, but still a possibility.

These all together make it for a marginal call on the river IMO, especially since the flush got there. true, you're getting better than 4:1 on your money (if BB is calling behind it's even better), but that doesn't make it easy. I think the whole play of the hand made it a tough spot. I really don't like facing a river bet like this with this 2p, on such a board, with those low straights and flush, and naturaly other 2p's or sets that beat A2.

[schwza]

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what about BB who is closing the action (or opening it again) behind you?

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the odds are very low that BB has a flush. it would be a strange play for him to check his flush to the limper, who has not shown any interest in betting. if the BB is ahead, it is a set, a straight, or a higher 2 pr. AA/22 are unlikely b/c hero has 2 A's and 2 2's (and AA usually raises pre-flop). 88 is possible, but most BB's would raise the flop or turn to shut out the limper, who looks like a flush draw. same for a8 or a3 (a3 raises the turn).

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isn't it possible that BB (a bad player probably) was slowplaying a better hand, and kept slowplaying it stupidly also on the river? Not a great chance, but still a possibility.


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yes, it's not impossible, but i think it's more likely that BB is a bad player and is wedded to his A7 and will pay off a little more.

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what other hands aside of some crappy aces that were played poorly do you see here?

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honestly, none, outside of poorly played TT, 98, etc. if you for some reason knew that this villain was a very good player, i think you could think about folding. but there are cheap satellites into the double shootouts (right?) and this is very early.

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These all together make it for a marginal call on the river IMO, especially since the flush got there

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i may have overstated the case for calling in my first post - i don't mean to imply that you're going to win this hand 50% or even 30%. but you only need to win it ~18%, and i think you do comfortably.

[PrayingMantis]

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if you for some reason knew that this villain was a very good player, i think you could think about folding.

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Many bad players will play their flush and other draws exactly like this. I don't like paying bad players who hit their flush, even if I get good odds. I agree that the pot-odds here are a bit too good, but still, it's not an auto call for me.

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I may have overstated the case for calling in my first post - i don't mean to imply that you're going to win this hand 50% or even 30%. but you only need to win it ~18%, and i think you do comfortably.

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I'm not disagreeing with you here. I'm not saying it's an easy fold or anything, only that you're going to see a flush here too many times, IMO, with this bet coming from the PF-limper on this board. Without the flush card hitting it becomes a much easier call against such opponents. The fact that it's practically a winner takes all should make marginal calls somewhat more +$EV, although if the field is really bad (many times it is) you can probably find better spot to call.

A point that I didn't mention, is that if you see the PF limper as a really bad player, who is trying to "milk" you with AJ, there's even a case for raising him at the end (i.e, pushing), especially if you put him on AJ. Why only call if you put him on AJ? He won't fold it now anyway, so it's certainly not a case of "worse hands will fold, and only better hands will call". Unless there's a much too big a chance he's on the flush, and then, again, calling becomes problematic to begin with.

[Che]

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there are cheap satellites into the double shootouts (right?) and this is very early.


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FWIW I have played quite a few of these and the first thing I do when my table forms is to find out who played in through the super.

There are normally 20-30 players who got in through the super, but I have never seen more than 1 of the 20-30 make the final table. More often than not, none of the qualifiers make the final table.

The difference in skill between those who buyin and those who qualify is significant.

There are exceptions, of course. I usually recognize one player out of the ~25 as a good player (e.g. I saw gyndok's name once), but qualifiers who are strong players are very rare.

Later,
Che