Counterintuitive Hand?

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Game #1556299922: Tournament #7185447, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/04/20 - 19:04:51 (ET)
Table '7185447 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: TuG_BoaT94 (1285 in chips)
Seat 2: ftmint44 (1150 in chips)
Seat 3: s.mortensen (1750 in chips)
Seat 4: bison359 (825 in chips)
Seat 5: maddog2030 (1425 in chips)
Seat 6: bertkc (1225 in chips)
Seat 7: edjmac (1055 in chips)
Seat 8: amiro (2240 in chips)
Seat 9: Burnunit (2545 in chips)
s.mortensen: posts small blind 15
bison359: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to maddog2030 [Kd Kc]
maddog2030: raises 60 to 90
bertkc: folds
edjmac: folds
amiro: folds
Burnunit: folds
TuG_BoaT94: raises 1195 to 1285 and is all-in
ftmint44: calls 1150 and is all-in
s.mortensen: folds
bison359: calls 795 and is all-in
maddog2030: calls 1195
*** FLOP *** [As 5d Js]
*** TURN *** [As 5d Js] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [As 5d Js 6s] [Ts]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
maddog2030: shows [Kd Kc] (a pair of Kings)
TuG_BoaT94: shows [8h 8s] (a flush, Ace high)
TuG_BoaT94 collected 270 from side pot-2
ftmint44: shows [Ad 7d] (a pair of Aces)
TuG_BoaT94 collected 975 from side pot-1
bison359: shows [Ks Qh] (a flush, Ace high - King higher)
bison359 collected 3315 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4560 Main pot 3315. Side pot-1 975. Side pot-2 270. | Rake 0
Board [As 5d Js 6s Ts]
Seat 1: TuG_BoaT94 showed [8h 8s] and won (1245) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: ftmint44 (button) showed [Ad 7d] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: s.mortensen (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: bison359 (big blind) showed [Ks Qh] and won (3315) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 5: maddog2030 showed [Kd Kc] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: bertkc folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: edjmac folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: amiro folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Burnunit folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

Notes:
1) Early in a $5 PS SNG
2) This was the first hand I played
3) I consider myself to have a significant skill advantage
4) The table had been normal up until this point for a low limit game
5) This is one of the worst plays I've ever seen even at these limits

I almost folded this. My reasoning was that given their range of hands (55+, A5s+, ATo+, KJs+) I was only a 51% favorite. A tigher range only reduces my win %(which when they pushed I figured at least one of them had a real hand). Losing would effectively give me 0 equity and winning would give me .1435 of the prize pool. Folding gives me .1 equity. This is all according to ICM. Not to mention I usually avoid big risks because I believe I had a significant skill advantage over the other players.

So to put this in dollar amounts, $0 for losing, $6.46 for winning, and $4.85 for folding. Since calling only wins half the time, it's effectively $3.23. So clearly folding was the best option according to ICM. Given a tighter range of hands, which is what I assumed at the time the hand actually was being played, makes folding an even better choice.

So according to ICM, my gut instinct was correct. Comments? Is ICM not applicable here?

[11t]

I simply refuse to fold KK preflop it a sit and go, if I can get all my chips in preflop I do it. If somebody has a-x or AA pay them off and start a new one.

It just isn't worth folding them.

[maddog2030]

I agree if we're talking about 1 person going all in. But 3 people absolutely kills my advantage to take the pot down, and its more important that I survive than take a huge pot down. Yes the pot is huge, but it doesn't double my equity, which is what I need to take a coinflip gamble here.

[kyro]

No you're right. I absolutely refuse to take a 51% shot to triple up and almost be guaranteed to make the money. Much better to try and win a few coinflips later on in the tourney on the bubble. God I hate these posts.