Winrates and Daytime (small stakes)

[sourbeaver]

Do you believe your winrate would vary depending on the daytime of your sessions ?

If so, what periods would you believe to be the most profitable/least profitable ?

To those of you who play more than 5 hours a day, how do you select your playing schedule for a given day ?

I'm asking this because of certain concerns I have about a 7-8 hours a day poker schedule. If your actual winrate is established as X (not played during specific periods of a day), do you believe your expected winrate for an 8-hour day to be 8X ? (concerning exclusively daytime, not tilt or such variables)


Thanks,
Raph


edit: I posted this in SSNL because I wanted to hear about specific NL experiences. I believe limit would be a different beast in that area of concerns.

[xorbie]

Most profitable is easily friday and saturday night, just because I seem to be able to double up with about twice the frequency against drunken gambloors.

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
Most profitable is easily friday and saturday night, just because I seem to be able to double up with about twice the frequency against drunken gambloors.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's generally spouted as truth, which means that the better players go hunting on Friday and Saturday night. I was (stupidly) playing a session around 4 am recently, and it was really soft. I was half-asleep, and unable to focus, and still finished up big. Of course, luck and variance and so on.

All times are profitable, really.

[teamdonkey]

people can give you opinions, but to get an answer you'd have to have a (really) large database of hands. If you need a large number of hands to get an idea of your true win rate, and even more to make an accurate comparison to different situations (like a different limit), you'd need 24x that many to establish with any reliability which hours are more profitable. Of course you could break the day into parts bigger than an hour (morning, evening, graveyard) and make that easier. The same could be done with days of the week.

If 50k hands is statistically enough to compare your win rate at one limit to another, then 150k is what you'd need to compare three time periods. I sure as hell don't have that many but i'm sure there are people here that do. You could probably combine hands at all limits for something like this.

[beset7]

If I was a speed freak I'd just play from thursday night at about 10pm until Monday at about 6am. But that's just based on experience. On a daily schedule, I find the "after-work" hours are the best. So starting around 6pm EST.

But, as someone mentioned, this is all just speculation. Why not set up 4 party skins datamining specific time periods for a month to see if the statistical texture of the games is substantially different? My research hypothesis would be that the differences are not ALL that substantial. It'd be an interesting project anyways.

[Macquarie]

Hey,
I'm playing in Australia, and find that on all the sites that I play, the average pot sizes are highest in the US evening and night, dropping to 2/3 in the US morning and daytime.

Since I play pretty tight, I think that my profits are far higher when I play when the average pots are high, since I get more action on average on the few hands I play.

Course, this means that I'd ideally like to play in the mid morning Sydney time, which is not so good for work!

Macquarie

[sourbeaver]

Perhaps different hours would command style adjustments, such as playing a tight solid game on loose/crazy hours and getting LAGgier in the mornings to get your big hands paid off.

[pmuir10]

From what I've noticed(not by comparing thousands of hands)the daytime such as from 12pm -6 pm eastern seems to be noticeably tighter. I think the games start to get good around 8pm eastern, and I have alot of times found myself in some crazy lagfests from 1am-4am easter.

[theredpill5]

My question is how the hell do you play for 8 hours a day/5 days a week sitting in front of the computer ? I'm thinking of taking up some brick and mortar play to change things up every week.

Do some of you play 40 hours /week ? I'd say that I play about 20 hours a week right now. I get so damn restless just sitting there waiting for a hand. It can drive you nuts.

[ghostface]

read 2+2, watch TV, listen to music...

when your winning the time goes a lot faster too/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[-Skeme-]

I usually 5-table for about 2 hours at a time. Sometimes longer. I try and do this about twice a day. I need to start playing more, though. Heh.

[RedBean]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is how the hell do you play for 8 hours a day/5 days a week sitting in front of the computer ? I'm thinking of taking up some brick and mortar play to change things up every week.

Do some of you play 40 hours /week ? I'd say that I play about 20 hours a week right now. I get so damn restless just sitting there waiting for a hand. It can drive you nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sit in front of the TV with a laptop, 4 tabling, not really minding whether I am winning or losing....watch a little TV, talk to the wife, listen to music....when I get tired, I shut down my tables, check the cashier, and say "cool, I'm up $175 and it didn't even seem like I was playing".

If you sit on the edge of your seat biting your nails thinking "I'm down 6 dollars in the first hour...arghh" it only makes it seem like labor.

A watched pot never boils.

[just2ska]

[ QUOTE ]
A watched pot never boils.

[/ QUOTE ]

words to live by

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
A watched pot never boils.

[/ QUOTE ]

It does to. Only yesterday I watched a pot of water, waiting for it to boil, so that I could add some pasta to it. It boiled very nicely thank you very much.

[MikeL]

I can tell you one thing for sure: On UltimateBet,
Saturday mornings and afternoons, I definitely take a
BIG hit on winrate! Many times I am -BB/100 on Saturdays.

It is so bad, that I have stopped playing on Saturdays
before 5 PM CST.

My guess is that Joe Sixpack plays alot, then, and he
plays very well.

Regards,
Mike L.

[DoomSlice]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm asking this because of certain concerns I have about a 7-8 hours a day poker schedule. If your actual winrate is established as X (not played during specific periods of a day), do you believe your expected winrate for an 8-hour day to be 8X ? (concerning exclusively daytime, not tilt or such variables)

[/ QUOTE ]

From a pure statistics standpoint... if your actual average is X, then the sum of 8 expectations will be 8 times the expectation (X) of one session. So yeah... but that doesn't answer your question one bit. <font color="brown"> </font>

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]

when your winning the time goes a lot faster too/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

So true. I bet there's an exponential relation between BBs won and time perception /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm asking this because of certain concerns I have about a 7-8 hours a day poker schedule. If your actual winrate is established as X (not played during specific periods of a day), do you believe your expected winrate for an 8-hour day to be 8X ? (concerning exclusively daytime, not tilt or such variables)

[/ QUOTE ]

From a pure statistics standpoint... if your actual average is X, then the sum of 8 expectations will be 8 times the expectation (X) of one session. So yeah... but that doesn't answer your question one bit. <font color="brown"> </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed lol...

[joewatch]

This is site dependent, but basically, winning comes down to table selection. The worse the players, the more you will win. On Party, there are always plenty of fishy players at all times of day except in early mornings.

[excession]

Brits have it best - about 8-10 hrs ahead of States and no tax on winnings..

[-Skeme-]

Going over my stats in Poker Tracker and I'm trying to figure out my true hourly average. The whole BB/Hr. thing is confusing. I think the dates are off as it says I played 181 hours in March, which is bogus.

I need to figure more out about the proper stats. My BB/100 for $.25/$.50 NL is 8.68 after 10,906 hands. This is pretty good right?

[swolfe]

go to the sessions tab and click the "show true hourly rate" checkbox. this takes into account multitabling.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
no tax on winnings..

[/ QUOTE ]

Sadly, this is most probably an illusion, just as it is for Canadian players. If the effort is organized and a legitimate expectation of profits can be established, the income is taxable. Those criterias are invariably met by winning players who play somewhat frequently.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
This is site dependent, but basically, winning comes down to table selection. The worse the players, the more you will win. On Party, there are always plenty of fishy players at all times of day except in early mornings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking a working day of poker would best be established with 1-2 hours of study/review in the morning, then hop on to the tables. This way you ensure the level of your game improves regularly and you avoid the early mornings where rock gardens rule the rooms.

Hmm .. thinking about it .. I'm actually excited that I'll devote 1-2 hours of studying to the game every single morning. Poker workout, interesting /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[excession]

no I'm pretty sure that the IR lost a test case vs Matloob Motlani I think when he won his WSOP bracelet- poker winnings are individual gambles not monies earned in the course of a trade - now the reload bonuses may be different - but in the UK income either has to be investment or earned in the course of a trade to be taxable

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/phpbb2/uk-tax-laws-vt13643.html

[-Skeme-]

The bottom row says, "$21.45" for "$ Won" and $16.81" for "BB/Hr."

Are either of those my true hourly wage I'm currently making?

[swolfe]

yes, it's the second row under $/hr. to the left on the second row should be the actual amount of playing time you've had. dividing total winnings by that should reconcile with the $/hr shown.

[-Skeme-]

$21.45 an hour. Hawt.

[SeattleJake]

I've noticed that I win less/lose more during the day. Must be all the stay at home pros, but also because playing at work can be distracting. Either way I'd venture my win rate doubles/turns after 5PST, and can still be profitable through 3AM.

[SeattleJake]

[ QUOTE ]
It does to. Only yesterday I watched a pot of water, waiting for it to boil, so that I could add some pasta to it. It boiled very nicely thank you very much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling "Bullshit".

[meleader2]

what's ur sn on UB?

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
Either way I'd venture my win rate doubles/turns after 5PST, and can still be profitable through 3AM.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what worries me. I don't mind an 8-hour daily schedule, I'm even excited about it, but I don't like the idea of working semi-nightly or nightly.

The solution appears to be premium table selection.

I thought the weekends would be much better all around though. The fish masses having free time all day instead of only after work doesn't affect the games much ?

[meleader2]

this is what i do:

every day before i leave for classes i open about 11 tables on UB on miniview. i then open the history windows for each and let PT take the hands every 10 minutes.

when i come home for break i remove tables that became short handed, and add tables that are long handed.

then, when its time to play u look for the highest ave. pot and highest % flops seen. when PT is turned on at those tables, i usually have between 300-600 hands per person in the database already. that REALLY helps for the statistics.

hope this somewhat helps!

[sourbeaver]

Yeah, I guess datamining would be more useful in the mornings/early afternoons since it is likely that the smaller pool of players is also the same pool of players from day to day.

The buddy list/fish list is an important factor I did not consider. That has to be worth a couple BB alone in the tighter periods of the day.

[-Skeme-]

I only play on Stars.

[meleader2]

i find the fish list useless unless 2 of them are on the same table, cuz otherwise u know everyone else there is probably gunning for the same man u'll most likely wind up losing to others

[sourbeaver]

My buddies are almost always alone (as buddies) on a given table, but I often find that my old buddy is shooting chips with a soon-to-be new buddy. That would depend heavily on the level played though.

At 25 and 50, big fish usually create huge beats between each other and end up battling it out on a table until one of them decides his roll has taken enough of a beating. I love dropping by on those tables.

Nothing like a fish saying to another fish that he's playing like a fish, and that insulted fish replying to the original fish that he really is the fish. (wow, I really wonder how the Monty Pythons would sound around a table)

[warlockjd]

I start anytime after 12 PM EST