Bubble hand

[Scuba Chuck]

I find this hand interesting, as I will many times fold here. But here's a case where villain has a similar stack size. Big stack had been very aggressive in raising most of the hands. On this orbit he had folded.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1565)
UTG (t5115)
Button (t1105)
SB (t2215)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1105 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero .....

I'm interested in the poll results, and any followup thoughts.

[Scuba Chuck]

Interesting results so far. 12 responses, and we're at 50/50.

[pooh74]

I dont like this call...wish I could be very clear as to why. Yeah, you're a fav against any two, clearly...but i guess it was a toss-up for me bc he was pushing into both of you...what would be your take on his take of the chipleader?

Then I think some more...having BS to his left he will have to move in at some point on him...

Anyway, those are my out-loud thoughts on paper...very close one though. I think the math says call and my inutition says its a fold.

[gasgod]

Button is pushing into two stacks that can bust him, and blinds are not that high, so he thinks he has a premium hand. I don't think I match up well against him. Could be a pair, AJo or better, two suited broadway, maybe a few others. If I call and lose, I am really crippled. (Somebody will probably do an ICM calculation and prove me wrong.)

GG

[Freudian]

If blinds were larger I would like calling more. If it is the last hand of 100/200 I would call (assuming I believe the pushing range of Button is normal for a guy with his stacksize), if it is the first hand of 100/200 I would fold.

[valenzuela]

It depends on previous action done by villain.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
blinds are not that high

[/ QUOTE ]

Villan only has 5xBB. If 200 isn't high relative to that stack, I don't know what is. I think he's probably desperate and taking advantage of the big stack being out of it.

On the other hand, w/ ATos I'd rather be the pusher than the caller.

This one's close.

[Scuba Chuck]

Freudian, I concur with your analysis on the blinds. I can't remember how many hands remained at this current blind level.

The point I wanted to emphasize/question on this hand was that big stack was playing almost every hand prior to this. And that the table dynamics, thus far, appeared that stack #2 was going to be fine to wait for one of us to 'bust out.' That may be a poor read, but I felt that the range of hands villain had here was very wide. Furthermore, I felt that I could still come back from this failed call attempt. But that in the future, if I folded here, it would become much more challenging.

With regard to pushing through the 2nd stack, I think that's bs. His calling range will be extremely tight, IMO. He pretty much has ITM locked up as long as no one takes on big stack and wins.

Here's the challenge we have here. What is the hand range we put villain on? And as always, I prefer to do two hand ranges.

HR (loose) Any pair, Any A, Any K, Any two broadway, all suited connectors

HR (tight) Any pair, Any A, Any two broadway.

Do you think the tight range is too loose?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on previous action done by villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain had been folding to every time Big stack entered the pot (which was virtually every hand). This information, IMO, has some value, but not a lot.

[valenzuela]

I think its a call then. EDIT: it seems he is a gappy player.

[tsevier]

More than anything this is dependent on my read of the villain. If he has pushed 2 or more times in the last 10 hands I am probably calling. If he had been tight I am most likely folding.

But I'm just a little fish in the $11 pond, so I may be mad.

[pooh74]

sorry scuba...i had big stack in the SB...this is more close to a call now...still close though.

Surely villain see this as a rare opportunity to enter a pot where BS has no chance of coming in or is not in already...his FE is highest right now, any two is extremely possible...in any regard, his range is much wider than i previoulsy thought which makes the ICM lean more in your direction for a call.

[Cleveland Guy]

I voted call - but I think it's highly table dependent.

Since the BS has been doing a lot of pushing, the button might see this is a rare chance to pick up some blinds cause he knows he will have to fold alot here.

Against a player who has been pushing often (not this case), it's an easy call. Against a player who has been very tight (again, not this case), it's an easy fold.

In this case I think you can put the Button on a wide range (wider than your loose range), and go ahead and call.

[11t]

I doubt that the button has anything and you are in a tough position with the big stack to your left, in fact I think this is the hardest spot to play in since you cannot be too aggressive in your steals due to the big stack's ability to call you. I still fold this and look for a better spot to get my BB back or to call a push with later on.

At 150/300 I call this, but I fold this right now. This might sound crazy but if the button had been playing really tight I would be more inclined to call this simply because he is more likely to be pushing a weak ace. Of course he could have 2 random cards, but he is getting desperate for chips. Another rotation and hes at 900 and hes done for.

[11t]

I would say his range is very wide, as in any 2 cards. That is why I think this is a fold.

[curtains]

My instincts are to call. The advantage you gain by calling here against the buttons range should be greater than the advantage you gain by stealing first in with weaker hands later, or waiting for someone to get eliminated.

[curtains]

Good to see that my instincts seem to be clearly right. According to eastbay's program this is a call and it's not even remotely close.

[ColdestCall]

The table dynamic here suggests this is a call to me. The range of hands I would be pushing as the button is very, very wide. Although I wouldn't be confident that this button was pushing as wide a range as I would, I am confident that his range is wide enough to make this a profitable call. Also, if I fold here, I will now be the short stack. Seeing as how big stack has been aggressively pushing, this may be my best situation to make a meaningful stand.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say his range is very wide, as in any 2 cards. That is why I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand your reasoning here.....

[curtains]

Yes, if his range is any 2 cards, folding is terrible.

[GtrHtr]

I voted call although based on his previous steal attempts and play I could consider folding on those reads.

All things being equal, I'd say you were ahead on this hand and your man was stealing and getting a little desperate.

[Apathy]

I think it's more important to note whether the big stack was calling all ins a ton because he was loose, or whether he was playing a good bubble and pushing a lot, but not calling short stack allins. If that is the case I might fold here, but against typical opponents you have the worst seat at the table given stack sizes so you may have to gamble here.

[Scuba Chuck]

11t, I don't understand your reponses. Your analysis and your conclusions don't seem to match. For example, in another post you say:

[ QUOTE ]
I would say his range is very wide, as in any 2 cards. That is why I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

ATo, has nearly a 2:1 favorite against any two, and with chips remaining if I lose, I'm confident that $EV will be positive.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt that the button has anything and you are in a tough position with the big stack to your left

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
This might sound crazy but if the button had been playing really tight I would be more inclined to call

[/ QUOTE ]

These last two comments reminds me of someone who undervalues strong hands, and overvalues weak hands. Just MHO, and hopefully trying to help you out.

I think your analysis looks correct, but your subsequent conclusions appear incorrect.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Seeing as how big stack has been aggressively pushing, this may be my best situation to make a meaningful stand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very concisely put. This best described my table decision. I am now seeking validation. Is this still a correct call? According to Curtains (via Eastbay), the math says it is...

I'm still interested in more thoughts. The one factor that still weighs heavy in the fold camp is that these blinds are still low enough. (I'm now playing my own devils advocate - great).

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Seeing as how big stack has been aggressively pushing, this may be my best situation to make a meaningful stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is highly important, I think, both because this makes it more likely that button is pushing with any two now that he finally has a chance and because it also increases the importance of you taking what you can get. Calling is made more attractive because you're in the BB.

I call this, though I don't think it's an easy call. I figure if I fold now I'm probably good for 15% of the prize pool, I'm good for probably about 30% if I call and win, and about 5% if I call and lose. (I'm guessing at what I think ICM might say about these situations.) This would mean I wouldn't need to win all that often (40% of the time) to make calling good, and against a random hand AT is going to win a lot more than that. Against either of your ranges, for that matter, AT is going to win a lot more than that.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's more important to note whether the big stack was calling all ins a ton because he was loose, or whether he was playing a good bubble and pushing a lot, but not calling short stack allins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the bigstack play has made this decision a little more interesting. Since these blinds are low, there hasn't been enough hands to identify what he would do (there was no evidence to say that he was a loose caller). I'd say there was about 8 hands prior to this that were 4 handed. Big stack was in 7 of those 8 (either as BB, miniraise, or a call) hands. This being the 9th hand, and out of this hand, there was less pressure, IMO, for button/villain to fear the big stack.

[GtrHtr]

Chuck,

Are you eventually going to post what happened on this one? No pressure, just want to know if I should check back later.

GtrHtr

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you eventually going to post what happened on this one? No pressure, just want to know if I should check back later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really didn't think the results mattered in this hand. As opposed to the KQ hand, where I think the results were more interesting. FWIW, button pushed with A2. And I won the pot.

But as we all know, I don't think the results make this move correct. The only thing the results help us with is defining a hand range.

[GtrHtr]

Thanks. No biggie, put some thought into this and was curious.

nh

[Freudian]

The result isn't important but it did confirm the view that his pushing range was quite large at this stage.

[valenzuela]

I think hes trying to say that ure likely to get involved in a 62/38 race /images/graemlins/confused.gif, thats what i get.

[Scuba Chuck]

52 pollsters so far. Wowza!

Well after 52 pollsters, we have a 57% concensus that a fold is the best move here. Despite these results, I am still at a quandry. I think calling here is the best move considering

1) Eastbay's thinga-ma-bob says calling is +$EV
2) Big Stack's frequent involvement with most hands

But alas, it's likely very close. To each their own.
Scuba

[curtains]

I am quite sure calling is correct, unless there are very exceptional game circumstances that would be quite rare.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I am quite sure calling is correct, unless there are very exceptional game circumstances that would be quite rare.


[/ QUOTE ]

Curtains, very nice to have your stamp of approval. /images/graemlins/grin.gif