The New Conspiracy

[Irieguy]

Legend has it that there is a cash-out curse. That is, whenever you cash out for a significant amount, you are destined to go on an enormous losing streak.

Some feel that this is pure supersticion. But many feel that the poker sites actually do this to you on purpose as punnishment for stealing the money that they feel is ALL rightfully theirs. (Smart people mention regression to the mean and explain that you will normally be making a large cashout after an unusually favorable expression of variance, and therefore, you will simply be more likely to run worse than you had been running as opposed to the same or better. But screw the smart people, that theory sucks.)

It appears that I have discovered yet another conspiracy, perpetrated by the poker sites, designed to destroy me personally (and probably some others like me, but mostly me.) Let's call it the "rake-THIS-back-a-hole" curse.

Here's how it works:

You're running along fine, reading 2+2, learning from the smart people, getting insulted by Citanul, wondering if Yugo is really gay, placing sidebets on how long new posters like Degen and Raptor will be around before going broke and returning to video games, playing well, making money, moving up... you know, all the cool stuff.

Then, you finally can't take it anymore that all these punks are getting 54% rakeback at the $11's while you pay $97,000 in rake every month, so you decide to open a bunch of rakeback accounts.

After losing a couple of grand through the PokerNow fiasco, and getting all 7 of your accounts frozen every 36 hours for a week for no apparent reason, you finally land a few reliable rakeback deals (for 3-7% less than every other yahoo on 2+2, apparently) and start playing.

But there's a problem. All of your bankroll is on your old accounts. So you transfer it all over to the other accounts. Then, when things get a little uneven, you try to move some money back and forth and realize that your transfer limits on your new accounts are like 1/1000th of your limits on your old accounts and you can't play 8 goddam tables anymore because you have $XXK in one account but only XXcents in the other and you can't transfer anymore for another week.

So you have to get creative. You transfer $$ to this friend, who moves it back to somebody else... throw some Neteller stuff in there for good measure, blah blah blah.

Then everything's finally cool, right? Wrong. The sites figure out what's going on and they turn the button on. Only this button isn't the "cashout curse" button... this button is the "rake-THIS-back-a-hole" button, and it's about 30 buy-ins worse than the "cashout curse" button.

I feel violated.

Irieguy

[Freudian]

I know how these theories come about.

Currently I have a brutal downswing (by my standards ~30 buyins). It has gotten to the point where when I push QQ vs 66 I now think "crap" and of course lose to his inevitable set. Anyway, it is out of this world and I can't win a coinflip to save my life.

And this happens right after a new Party upgrade and in the first week of my new account (which has that-which-we-do-not-speak-of).

Doesn't take a genius to connect the dots!

[Apathy]

I too was terrified that the "cashout curse" would ruin me forever, but I somehow surivived a few cashouts without great incident. In a few weeks it will be time to start 8 tabling, open up a new rakeback account, and begin my giant losing streak.

I am comfortable with this.
I have accepted the inevitability of my fate.

I was considering some kind of sub-affiliating myself scam but I know that they won't care about this, they won't even tell me they know. They'll just turn the button on and make me pay big.

You think they'd be nice to people who have 10k + MGRs, but noooooo, it just makes it that much more fun for them to turn that button on.

Fortunatly I have a few remedies to fight back with and well I am hesitant, I will share them with you. Do these things IN ORDER and you should be fine.

1. Fold AA Preflop
2. Call all in as a medium stack on the bubble with 32o
3. Say, yes sir may I have another after every beat.

In a week or so everything shoud return to normal.

[Apathy]

Another note worthy thing I just realised is that many people may THINK the button has been turned on, but the only way to know for sure is the following test:

1. Did you recently set up a new rakeback account?
2. Do you have accounts at 3 affiliate sites or more?
3. Have you closed down a party or affiliate account recently?
4. Are you experiencing a hideous amount of bad beats resulting in a big downswing?

MOST importantly:

5. Have you noticed a strange tendancy for your beats to always come on the river, especially after the flop and turn improve your hand in some way giving you false hope?


If you answered yes to 2/4 questions AND yes to question 5, its pretty safe to say the button has been turned on.

[SuitedSixes]

I once sent an e-mail to Eurobet explaining to them that there probably wasn't a button, and IF there was a button I realized that they couldn't acknowledge it, but I could really use a break, so I asked that if they would please switch my button back.

That seemed to do the trick.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I once sent an e-mail to Eurobet explaining to them that there probably wasn't a button, and IF there was a button I realized that they couldn't acknowledge it, but I could really use a break, so I asked that if they would please switch my button back.

That seemed to do the trick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't Eurobet the rebels while Party is the Empire?

[raptor517]

aww come on irie, you really think i could go broke? im way too rich to go broke. i could always drop down and 10 table the 55s and be rich again in 3 weeks. poker is too easy. maybe if i didnt take so many shots i would be REALLY rich. but nooooo, i gamboooool. but i can. bwahahahahhaa

oh, as for going broke and returning to videogames, i may go broke playing videogames and have to return to poker. holla

[Phoenix1010]

Hoping this "regression to the mean" theory works both ways. I'm due for a monstrous upswing, apparently.

[john_]

Don't you think it'd be positive EV for the poker sites to give the better players who tend to cash out more worse than average luck and give the worse players who tend to buy in a lot more than they cash out better than average luck? This way the winning players would think "hey it's just fluctuation" and the losing players would be more likely to keep playing. Party Poker had extremely limited high stakes tables for a very long time. One could argue this way a means to keep the losers playing for longer. Why wouldn't they do something along those lines as well?

haha....That's my "work in progress" conspiracy theory. Also worth noting, I made a large cash out with my friend's account then let him play STT's and he's down a bunch of buy in's. Well not a bunch but 8 over 90 tournies...

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I once sent an e-mail to Eurobet explaining to them that there probably wasn't a button, and IF there was a button I realized that they couldn't acknowledge it, but I could really use a break, so I asked that if they would please switch my button back.

That seemed to do the trick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't Eurobet the rebels while Party is the Empire?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I am pretty sure that Empire is the Empire.

[spentrent]

I'm about ready to start regressing to my 10K/month mean.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Another note worthy thing I just realised is that many people may THINK the button has been turned on, but the only way to know for sure is the following test:

1. Did you recently set up a new rakeback account?
2. Do you have accounts at 3 affiliate sites or more?
3. Have you closed down a party or affiliate account recently?
4. Are you experiencing a hideous amount of bad beats resulting in a big downswing?

MOST importantly:

5. Have you noticed a strange tendancy for your beats to always come on the river, especially after the flop and turn improve your hand in some way giving you false hope?


If you answered yes to 2/4 questions AND yes to question 5, its pretty safe to say the button has been turned on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy [censored].

This is me!

When do they turn the button off?

[Barcalounger]

That also very accurately describes me. 1.6% ROI over my last 1000 SNGs including a 35 buyin drop at one point. That's a fun 2 months.

This mean that I'm regressing to really sucks.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
Also worth noting, I made a large cash out with my friend's account then let him play STT's and he's down a bunch of buy in's. Well not a bunch but 8 over 90 tournies...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are on to something here. All you need to do is transfer over to your friends account and then cash out of his account. He's got the curse now! Now only if you could get your enemy to let you do this.

-Gryph

[Scuba Chuck]

Hmmm, that explains a lot. I feel much better now. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

So what is the antedote? How do you cure the curse? I think that is a more interesting post. If you redeposit, does it lift the curse? Does the amount of the redeposit make a diff? Please, please, give me the antedote!

[SuitedSixes]

In order to lift the curse, your deposit must be equal to your withdrawal.

[Blarg]

What's a cash-out?

[raptor517]

a legendary goal every sng player hopes to achieve one day. holla

[john_]

Lose your bankroll in a private game to me then buy back in. I'll be happy to take the curse off your hands for a few $'s. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Lose your bankroll in a private game to me then buy back in. I'll be happy to take the curse off your hands for a few $'s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the curse, you may be disappointed in the current Party BR.

[john_]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering the curse, you may be disappointed in the current Party BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, let me append my theory a little. Buy in an exorbitant amount...lose it to me...buy in again...repeat those steps everytime you take a bad beat.

[john_]

haha poor guy, he never had a chance...

#Game No : 1920049321
***** Hand History for Game 1920049321 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:11446744 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, April 19, 18:38:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 14945 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: jd_dub ( $800 )
Seat 9: AA______ ( $800 )
Seat 4: betum1 ( $800 )
Seat 10: mannm23 ( $800 )
Seat 2: Butch65 ( $800 )
Seat 1: Aces27 ( $800 )
Seat 7: CIB1990 ( $800 )
Seat 6: showt1me ( $800 )
Seat 8: flshort ( $800 )
Seat 3: coolstriker ( $800 )
Trny:11446744 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to AA______ [ 7s 7c ]
showt1me calls [15].
CIB1990 calls [15].
flshort folds.
AA______ calls [15].
mannm23 folds.
Aces27 calls [15].
Butch65 folds.
coolstriker calls [15].
betum1 calls [5].
jd_dub checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 7h, 5d ]
betum1 checks.
jd_dub checks.
showt1me checks.
>You have options at Table 14943 Table!.
CIB1990 is all-In [785]
AA______ is all-In [785]
Aces27 folds.
coolstriker folds.
betum1 folds.
jd_dub folds.
showt1me folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
CIB1990 shows [ Ad, Kh ] a flush, ace high.
AA______ shows [ 7s, 7c ] three of a kind, sevens.
CIB1990 wins 1675 chips from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
AA______ finished in tenth place.
AA______ has left the table.

[valenzuela]

thats BS, if ure the guy with the green sweater u cant possibly lose.

[Freudian]

I thought Party's vengeful eye had stopped staring at me and was now tormenting others. Happily I start up two SnGs.

SnG 1.

Lose 75% of my stack with AA vs AKs and QQ. The AKs get a runner runner flush. Work my way up to 500 chips and then lose with AJ vs A9. A nine on the river.

SnG 2

Lose my whole stack in level 5 when I go all in with 66. Get called by A4. An ace falls on the river.

My soul still belongs to Party. Me thinks some small rodent sacrifice may please them.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
My soul still belongs to Party. Me thinks some small rodent sacrifice may please them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me know if this works.

[Shanemex]

It hurts when I pee. Does this make me gay?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
My soul still belongs to Party. Me thinks some small rodent sacrifice may please them.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Let me know if this works.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, yes, let us know. I'm sure I can find some rodents that need to die.

[Barcalounger]

I figured out how to force them to turn the button off, but it ain't pretty.

Last night I ran so bad that my bankroll at Euro was down to $9 with 4 tables running. I guess the prospect of my fishy self not donating my weak american dollar to them anymore put a scare into the president of Eurobet and they had to turn off the button. I finished ITM in 7 of the next 8 and had a (very rare lately) winning night.

Whether this change in button status is permanent or not, I guess we find out tonight. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[poindexter]

A similar situation happened to me after making my first cash out after 4 months of play. It was a major withdrawal used for real estate. The losing streak that followed was the worst I have ever experienced. Towards the end of the streak I had to drop down 2 levels to conserve what was remaining of my roll. When I dared to try the 200 game again I had one of my best nights ever taking 1,1,1,2,4,3 for the 6 games I played that night. (I play limit so I am lucky to get 6 games in a night otherwise I would have played more). Since then I have made smaller withdrawals and experienced the same pattern after each withdrawal on a smaller scale. Anyone else notice the correlation between amount of withdrawal and severity of losing streak?

[Jibbs]

I knew it. The button was obviously on for me over the last month as KK was cracked over and over to the point of a vein in my head just about popping.

But then, something strange happened. Apparently a staff member spilled a coke on the or something else on the board short circuiting the whole mechanism and I received pocket aces 6 times in the first hour of an MTT (and they held up 5 times). I went on to win the MTT and I am trying to play as much as possible before they get a tech in to fix it.

[The once and future king]

I posted about this curse some months ago.

[DonButtons]

easy solution-inter account transfer your cashouts to another account, and cash out from that non-playing account...

[jackdaniels]

I can suggest a simple solution to this problem. Don't play. Revolutionary, I know! After I make a withdrawal from one site I take a few days off from playing there (happily plugging away at another site). I then make a test run at the old site and if I encounter ANY signs of the curse, I immediately withdraw additional funds - that'll teach 'em! If things go well, I may make a deposit, I may continue to play - anything is possible.

I don't play at a site that has the button turned on. There is enough poker out there to not have to rely on a single site.