Does anyone lay these kowboys down?

[Chiron]

Villain is 22/3.8/2.1 over 200+ hands... My first thoughts on the flop were what could he possibly have that I can beat?


Possible holdings after flop:
AA (6 combinations): 22%
KK (1 combinations): 4%
JJ (3 combinations): 11%
QQ (3 combinations): 11%
TT (6 combinations): 22%
AK (8 combinations): 30%

Beats me: 22+11+11+.5(4)=46% of the time, making it an easy calldown with the pot odds...?

Is this math correct?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

[arkady]

uhm....no, folding here is crazy.

I would personally raise somewhere, flop being the most likely, but I can see the reasoning for a call down.

[Chiron]

Idk, that ominous 3bet spooked me... My instincts said fold/calldown, my brain said raise the flop.

[ravballz]

Raise the flop and/or raise the turn.

He could have AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, QJs, TT, 99, possibly a lot worse holdings too.

[zokbarjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop and/or raise the turn.

He could have AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, QJs, TT, 99, possibly a lot worse holdings too.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 22/3.8 will not 3-bet "a lot of worse holdings". And, hero loses to AJ, QJ, AsKs, AsQs.

I would probably find a flop raise, but if he's so tight that the 3-bet scared you, calling down is good. You really want to get to showdown.

[bblock99]

[ QUOTE ]
A 22/3.8 will not 3-bet "a lot of worse holdings". And, hero loses to AJ, QJ, AsKs, AsQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then raise the flop and find out, otherwise you have no idea what he has. I like to think of the flop as a means for information, especially cause it's cheap. I likea raise on the flop and see what happens on the turn.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
You really want to get to showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

I second this - 200 hands is a decent sample size, but not enough to know with any certainty that the player wont get bored and 3-bet 77 or A9s or something - I've seen some weeeeeird stuff at the 5/10 6max.

You've got a solid holding...if you have that much respect for him, call down - get yourself to showdown.

I personally would raise the flop, but I wasn't at the table, and I haven't seen him play, so take that from a purely theoretical standpoint.

Surf

[ravballz]

Ok, remove QJ from that list, then you should see why a raise is a good play.

Also, you have to raise this for information.

[Surfbullet]

Raising purely for "information" is almost always wrong. Raise here if you think you have enough equity, otherwise a calldown is preferable, since the pot is so damn big you only have to be right about 1 in 5 (and not hit a set).

Surf

[PassiveCaller]

Look for a spot to raise? Yes. Think about folding? I'm not weak tight like that.

[Alobar]

raise this flop 110% of the time. You shouldnt even have to wonder.

Your PT numbers are of meaningful size, but do you have any read on what hands actually amke up his 3.8%? I find more and more that people with incrdibly low PFR numbers, raise some wierd hands. Lots of them love to limp their big hands like AA and KK and stuff. So just because I see 3.8 im not going to shake in my boots out of fear and become weak tight and call down with an uber strong hand.

[stigmata]

I've got to agree with earlier posts. In my experience, a 4% PFR does not neccesarily mean that they raise the top 4%, it can mean that they have wacky raising standards.

I had a guy with similar stats who would allways raise/3-bet any pocket pair, whatever the circumstances. Go figure.

[aK13]

Isn't it possible that this guy ISN'T raising some of his premium holdings like KK/AA/AK?

[MAxx]

I raise the flop and call down a 3 bet... unless I spike a another King or break him down with a backdoor flush. Folding your hand anywhere would be WNBA, and makeing it too costly to make it to showdown would be chip spewery. With all that your hand has going for it, it deserves a flop raise vs even this player. Raising later could be disasterous.

[Derek in NYC]

In addition to just fixating on his stats, you should also consider the metagame. Is this the 4th hand in a row you've raised up preflop because the deck has just been hitting you in the face? Does your recent play make YOU look like somebody who should be isolated? Is this guy on tilt because he just got aces cracked the previous hand?

I agree that you have to raise the flop 100% of the time, but if it is three-bet, I'm calling down and hoping to spike a two outer.

[Chiron]

I agree with whoever said that folding would be WNBA and raising later streets would be chip spewery. I can see where you are coming from about the flop raise, but this guy had not done anything out of line yet--my instict says the best line is to see a showdown as cheaply as possible. What does a flop raise accomplish unless you plan on folding to further action? The showdown cost with a check/calldown is only 2.5BB... what would your flop raise line be? Raise and fold to a reraise? Raise and calldown? And all his raises had been solid, from what I'd seen. I suppose it's possible that he could have been getting bored or playing a lower PP. If the board had been QJT, making AK a lock, would it then have been worth considering a fold somewhere?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
What does a flop raise accomplish...

[/ QUOTE ]

Its gets more money in the pot with what could very well be the best hand.

[Chiron]

Thank you Captain Obvious.

But I was thinking they were suggesting that merely as a means of getting information. In THAT sense, what does it accomplish, as far as getting information?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you Captain Obvious.

But I was thinking they were suggesting that merely as a means of getting information. In THAT sense, what does it accomplish, as far as getting information?

[/ QUOTE ]

raising for information is hardly ever correct, and is incorrect here as well. I'm captian obvious with my statement because from your post it seems you missed that concept.

[MAxx]

i would raise for the same reason as Alobar. information is only secondary. the only info i'd be getting on my flop raise is whether i think the rest of the streets will involve me leading, or me calling. his 3 bet would inform me that i would be calling all later streets, unless I improve or am checked to. his lack of a 3 bet would inform me that I will likely be leading upcoming streets.

[Silverback]

The villian is tight and raises just the premium hands,

I think you played the hand well,

Against the vast majority of other opponents it would be easy to be more aggressive on flop and turn,

Id be well surprised if he hasnt AA or QQ, but I still wouldnt fold this pot.

[Chiron]

[ QUOTE ]
i would raise for the same reason as Alobar. information is only secondary. the only info i'd be getting on my flop raise is whether i think the rest of the streets will involve me leading, or me calling. his 3 bet would inform me that i would be calling all later streets, unless I improve or am checked to. his lack of a 3 bet would inform me that I will likely be leading upcoming streets.

[/ QUOTE ] thanks--just what i was looking for.

[Chiron]

if anyone's wondering, villain had AA

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
raising for information is hardly ever correct

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do people always say this? I raise on the flop often to see where I stand with a marginal hand.

If the flop raise slows the villain down, I can take the free card/cheap showdown or bet for value, depending on my read.

If the flop raise just gets me three-bet on the flop and led into on 4th street, I can get away from my hand for cheaper than check-calling the flop, 4th and 5th street.

[7ontheline]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raising for information is hardly ever correct

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do people always say this? I raise on the flop often to see where I stand with a marginal hand.

If the flop raise slows the villain down, I can take the free card/cheap showdown or bet for value, depending on my read.

If the flop raise just gets me three-bet on the flop and led into on 4th street, I can get away from my hand for cheaper than check-calling the flop, 4th and 5th street.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this means that raising SOLELY for info is not worth it. If you have a marginal hand, you may still be winning or have good outs. The info you get from the raise will then hopefully let you extract the most or lose the least, and may be for value. However, raising just because you don't know what you're doing is wasting money.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

Why do people always say this? I raise on the flop often to see where I stand with a marginal hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is never a good thing. Most of the time, all you get him to do is fold his worse hands, and let him 3 bet you hands that beat you. Sure you get away cheaper when you are behind, but you dont win near as much when you are ahead.

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop raise slows the villain down, I can take the free card/cheap showdown or bet for value, depending on my read.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isnt raising for information, this is raising for tactical purposes, and is one of the reasons to raise

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop raise just gets me three-bet on the flop and led into on 4th street, I can get away from my hand for cheaper than check-calling the flop, 4th and 5th street.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you made this flop raise, soley for that purpose, then it was likely a bad play.