TT turn fold

[macdaddy991]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

New to table, about 10 hands. On the turn I wasn't afraid of the jack, I was concerned that the overcall by MP1 signified a higher PP. Too cautious?

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

I felt weak, but my tens didn't seem good here.

[jaxUp]

nh

[Redd]

Grunching.

I'd need to see more aggression before I decided he wasn't just trying to push me off the pot. What about 3-betting the flop, cap-calling and check-folding an UI turn?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching.

I'd need to see more aggression before I decided he wasn't just trying to push me off the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that cold-capping preflop is a good indication. Also, MP1 coldcalling the flop is problematic for me.

[ArturiusX]

I like it. Not a lot of hands you beat, and even less hands you may have beat on the river.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching.

I'd need to see more aggression before I decided he wasn't just trying to push me off the pot. What about 3-betting the flop, cap-calling and check-folding an UI turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Had I been HU with the button I would have capped, however the cold overcall by MP1 gave me reason to believe that I was behind. Thoughts?

[FreakDaddy]

Tough call, but I think I'd 3-bet the flop. If it's capped then I feel better about check/folding the turn.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching.

I'd need to see more aggression before I decided he wasn't just trying to push me off the pot. What about 3-betting the flop, cap-calling and check-folding an UI turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this line. With no real reads I'd play it this way. Same advice I posted btw.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, MP1 coldcalling the flop is problematic for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I'm playing at a much lower limit than most people here, but it seems like whenever I see pf-aggression/flop donking, it's some guy that can't get over the fact that his great pf overcards missed the flop. He might even be chasing a 5.

It seems like kings or higher would be an auto-3bet for most players. The two case tens are unlikely. I guess JJ, QQ is a possibility on the flop, but there's still many more combinations of overs. I'd be interested to hear what everyone thinks a typical villain would cold-call with here.

[Mike Z]

I wouldn't laydown my hand for one more bet.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't laydown my hand for one more bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not going to be one more bet. It will be at least two. (One on the turn, one on the river).

I agree with the laydown here.

[tiltaholic]

had you 3-bet pf and called a cap, i'd like the turn fold more.
i'd likely call this one down even though it will be another bet on the river. mp1 is likely padding the pot for you - no reason to assume he has a higher pocket pair simply because he is along for the ride.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
had you 3-bet pf and called a cap, i'd like the turn fold more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
i'd likely call this one down even though it will be another bet on the river. mp1 is likely padding the pot for you - no reason to assume he has a higher pocket pair simply because he is along for the ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a tough fold. HU check call would have been comfortable, but I folded thinking I needed a stronger then average hand to overcall.

I guess that is why we post these things. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[SlantNGo]

I'm not afraid of MP1 at any point in this hand. He's most likely hanging onto an Ace and hoping to catch the Ace or a 5. I think we're ahead of MP1 ~90% of the time here. I've got Button on QQ/KK/AA/AK, and all 4 of those could very well be played the way he has so far. I call on the turn and re-evaluate the river.

[Mister Z]

I like it. I think this is a +EV fold in the long run.

[tiltaholic]

oops. i meant on the flop...not preflop.

i'm not sure i am right about calling it down.
i often feel it is a leak of mine. (usually when i lose /images/graemlins/smile.gif
it was just my opinion of what i thought i would do in your shoes, not a definitive answer.

[The Legend]

HU, I definitely call. However, with two people, it's tough. Do you think you could win 1 outta 13 times (getting about 12 to 1 odds)? If you spike a ten(22.5 to 1), you probably win. Plus you may be best already. I think because you could win several extra bets if you make your draw, coupled with the fact that this is party .5/1 and people can play their AK or smaller pocket pair crazy like this, that a call is in order.

On the river, I would call one more bet UI but fold if MP1 starts going crazy and it's more than one bet. If an A, K, Q or 5 falls, I might fold to even one bet though (If I have to show down against both opponents).

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching.

I'd need to see more aggression before I decided he wasn't just trying to push me off the pot. What about 3-betting the flop, cap-calling and check-folding an UI turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You want to spend an extra 2 SB's on the flop so that you can fold when you miss your 2-outer on the turn? No offense, but if there's such a thing as weak chip-spewing I think that's it.

After reading your other post, I do agree with you that information you get on the flop isn't always reliable. The information you learn from a bet on the turn however, usually is; which is why I'd try a stop &amp; go here and fold to a turn raise. This way you're investing the same amount and still giving yourself a chance to win without spiking your set.

[Amerretto]

*grunching*

Afraid I would call it down, though I would be thinking that with the Cap and aggression shown by the button I would be up against a higher pair.

MP1 poss on Ax suited, drawing, only worried about him if he comes out firing on the River.

One bet here, and hopefully one bet on the river, I think it's worth it in case they are both drawing.

[bottomset]

you need to be good 12.75/2 to call down .. the opencap +flop raise on rainbow baby board doesn't seem like 99 or AK

that and even if ahead you won't be come river a fair amount of the time

[TripleH68]

AK can get a little brave with the likely added wheel outs, but you are correct to think MP1 must be getting out of line here if you have him beat. Plus calling down seems wrong if MP1 is going to call down with you.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense

[/ QUOTE ]
None taken. Discussion is what we're all here for.

[ QUOTE ]
You want to spend an extra 2 SB's on the flop so that you can fold when you miss your 2-outer on the turn?...if there's such a thing as weak chip-spewing I think that's it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you just want to invest an extra 2SB's on the turn so that you can fold when you miss your two-outer. When calling a flop cap, you're at least getting correct odds to draw to it.

[ QUOTE ]
This way you're investing the same amount and still giving yourself a chance to win without spiking your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you give yourself an extra chance to win? You're not going to fold a winning hand with a turn raise that would stay with a flop 3-bet, and you're still seeing exactly the same number of cards for the same cost.

But with a flop call, you're giving the cold-caller a chance to draw to his likely six outs (maybe ten, if he has an A) that beat you for cheap. If anything, you're giving yourself an extra chance to lose.

I think it's debatable whether or not to continue with the hand on the flop, and I'm not skilled enough to know for sure if 3-betting or folding is the best play. I'm actually becoming more convinced that folding would be better, by thinking about how often your hand is best at showdown even if you are ahead.

But if you're staying in the hand, IMO a fancy flop smooth-call is the worst of the 3 options: while you invest the same amount (as a 3-bet) to see the same number of cards, you charge the drawing hands less if you're ahead.

[McGahee]

Sorry, I seem to be quote function illiterate so I'll use my own quotes.

"None taken. Discussion is what we're all here for."

Cheers

"Dude, you just want to invest an extra 2SB's on the turn so that you can fold when you miss your two-outer. When calling a flop cap, you're at least getting correct odds to draw to it."

How do you know I'm folding on the turn? I'm only folding if Button RAISES, because I'm betting into him. If he just calls (which is highly possible) I'm only spending 1 more BB TOTAL than you to SHOWDOWN (if that). If he raises I'm spending the same amount, only I'm much more sure that I'm making the correct fold. Lots of guys act tough on the flop with position - lets see if he's such a tough guy on the expensive street. If he's not there's a good chance I have the best hand. If he is he's probably got rockets or cowboys. If he has the stones to raise the turn with Big Slick or something worse than 10's, then I tip my hat to him for outplaying me.

If you 3-bet the flop what do you really learn about his hand if he caps? Nothing, because he could be going for the "expensive free card play" and then decide to bluff at after hero shows weakness on the turn. That's all I was really saying. In this case I don't really care about outs, or his drawing odds. I think this is a people person hand, not a Math hand.

I also don't see how my line of calling the flop is a "fancy" play.

[gopnik]

Button worries me here more than MP1. If MP1 had a bigger PP he would either bet this flop or c/r it. So, I am putting him on over cards. That said I'd call the flop raise and bet/fold the turn.

[Redd]

I think I see where we're differ, and I'll address that right after one other question:
[ QUOTE ]
If he just calls (which is highly possible) I'm only spending 1 more BB TOTAL than you to SHOWDOWN (if that)

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems here that you're raising to see if Villain calls and you have the best hand. Then when he proves that you do, you try to get to showdown without paying another bet. If his call is that definitive, why aren't you ram 'n jaming here?



Now, I think the real disagreement here is in our respective perceptions of a flop cap:
[ QUOTE ]
what do you really learn about his hand if he caps? Nothing

[/ QUOTE ]
So are you saying that it's your opinion that Hero could likely be ahead even if the Villain caps the flop?

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I see where we're differ, and I'll address that right after one other question:
[ QUOTE ]
If he just calls (which is highly possible) I'm only spending 1 more BB TOTAL than you to SHOWDOWN (if that)

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems here that you're raising to see if Villain calls and you have the best hand. Then when he proves that you do, you try to get to showdown without paying another bet. If his call is that definitive, why aren't you ram 'n jaming here?



Now, I think the real disagreement here is in our respective perceptions of a flop cap:
[ QUOTE ]
what do you really learn about his hand if he caps? Nothing

[/ QUOTE ]
So are you saying that it's your opinion that Hero could likely be ahead even if the Villain caps the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thoroughly confused by your first question. Again, I'm not raising anybody's bet on the turn; I'm first to bet. If he calls and nobody raises then I've already made it to the river - how can I ram &amp; jam?

As for your 2nd question - yes I think hero could be ahead after a flop cap. I also think hero could easily be behind if villian just calls the flop 3-bet, because he could be waiting for the more expensive turn to raise again. That's why I'm not a fan of 3-betting the flop for information - your opponents know that it's "the cheap street" and the action there often doesn't really tell you much.
Conversely, if hero is raised on the turn he is practically never ahead and can safely fold.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
how can I ram &amp; jam?

[/ QUOTE ]
It seemed like you were planning on check-calling the river when you wrote, "If he just calls I'm only spending 1 more BB TOTAL than you to SHOWDOWN (if that)". Just seemed incongruous with your pre-riv play.

Unless I have a really huge LAG read on this opponent, IMO there's about a 99% chance that we're beat if Villain cold-caps pf then caps the flop. I also think that if this Villain would cap the flop with a hand we beat, he'd raise the turn with a hand we beat as well. I would be interested in hearing some more opinions on this, though, and on the whole hand.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how can I ram &amp; jam?

[/ QUOTE ]
It seemed like you were planning on check-calling the river when you wrote, "If he just calls I'm only spending 1 more BB TOTAL than you to SHOWDOWN (if that)". Just seemed incongruous with your pre-riv play.

Unless I have a really huge LAG read on this opponent, IMO there's about a 99% chance that we're beat if Villain cold-caps pf then caps the flop. I also think that if this Villain would cap the flop with a hand we beat, he'd raise the turn with a hand we beat as well. I would be interested in hearing some more opinions on this, though, and on the whole hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

On point #1 you are correct - but that's only because I turn into a weakling on the river. That doesn't change my opinion of the rest of the hand, although you do have to check/call the river if another overcard drops. By then the pot is so enormous that I'm not going to bet/fold to a rivered ace.

I guess I can't quibble with point #2 either. Perhaps I did not give enough consideration to the PF cold cap. There's just something about a check/fold line on the turn that irks me, especially if you're 3-betting the flop. At that point the pot is so large that I think it's worth firing first on the turn; because it does increase your chances of winning the pot, wouldn't you agree?

My turn for questions: if villian just calls your flop 3-bet are you leading the turn and calling a raise?

What a hand: unlike AA, it seems you either win a fortune or lose your lunch with 10,10.

[Redd]

This is a tough hand, so I'm also gonna use this as a bump to see if any more of the pooh-bahs/pseudo-bahs want to put in their 2 cents. McGahee has convinced me that I don't have a freakin' clue what the best move is.

[ QUOTE ]
My turn for questions: if villian just calls your flop 3-bet are you leading the turn and calling a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, I think any more aggression from Villain in this hand and I'm bailing, especially in this case since my overpair just became second pair.

This sucks though because the pot will be pretty huge at this point and we'd only be 2BB away from seeing a showdown; IMO that would actually be a pretty good argument for waiting until the turn to raise. (I would also agree that capping the flop then c/fing the turn does seem like a weird line.)

IMO it's also a pretty good reason to just fold the flop; it seems like anything we do with this hand will cost us alot of money.

[SippinSoma]

My first reaction was to 3-bet the flop. If it gets capped, I call and fold the turn once an over hits. This is all without a read. If the turn and river are blanks, I like calling down.

EDIT: Just saw the 10 hands at the table comment. Yeah, given the overcall, I'd fold this turn too.

2nd EDIT: Whoa, I just saw button capped. It's late, and now I'm definitely folding the turn UI.

[Isura]

I rarely 3-bet this flop. I'd lead the turn instead, fold to a raise. And probably check-call the river if its' not too scary. If you bet the turn and get called, there's a good chance you're getting a free showdown.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I rarely 3-bet this flop. I'd lead the turn instead, fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you lead any non-ace turn? Any non-overcard? Any card?

And what advantage does leading the turn have (versus 3-betting the flop)?

[Isura]

The preflop action dictates my play a lot here. If I had raised and only been called, I'm more likely 3-betting/leading the turn or folding the turn UI if capped. If you were the only preflop aggressor, there's either a good chance you are ahead to smaller pairs or way behind on this ragged board. So in this case I think you can feel more comfortable about folding the turn after a flop cap. But in this hand, both villians have shown strength preflop. I don't like 3-betting the flop only for information. It's much less likely that a 3-bet is for value in this hand, and you get more information by betting the turn and facing a raise or call. Villian raises the turn with stronger hands than he caps the flop IMO, especially considering it could still be 3-handed on the river. You pick up bets from overcards who call the turn. THis also sets up a chance to value bet the river if it's not another overcard.