should i fold the river to this raise.

[deepsquat]

How did i play this river? No reads.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (9 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

[jaxUp]

This is pretty borderline with no reads.

[ArturiusX]

If CO folds its ok. If CO calls, I probably wouldn't.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
If CO calls, I probably wouldn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

for real.

[kong98]

/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

I think you have to call the raise here. The pot is too big to fold, on the off chance he's bluffing when the ace falls.

I wonder if the value bet on the river is a good idea? With no reads, do you assume he's a fish, or do we give him some credit?

If he's loose and will call down with anything, I like the river bet.

But if he's not completely fishy, you need to ask yourself what could he be calling you with the whole way? I think that AK, AQ, AJ are very likely candidates. Given that, I wonder if a check-call here is a better line.

Kong98

[jaxUp]

I think that with no reads we have to bet this river for value. Calling the raise isn't as easy. I have mulled it over a bit, and I think you're good 1/12 here. Best-case scenario:he's bluffing his missed flush. Other than that, I think another possible scenario could be that he's holding a J and was planning to raise any river. Or he's just a donk. A call here is fine.

[FreakDaddy]

No. Yeah I am long winded today. This is simple math dude. You only have to win this hand 1 out of 10 times to be right on this call. Do you think you'll be good 1 in 10?

[OrianasDaad]

-grunching-

Pre-Flop: Fine. Big PP's are easy to play pf. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Flop: Fine. The board is pretty ragged (despite the pair), so your overpair will be ahead the vast majority of the time.

Turn: Ditto.

River: You can't fold, even though it's the second worst card you could see (A/images/graemlins/heart.gif is worse). I'd still bet, and call the raise HU.

If BB spiked a higher pair on the river, you have to realize that he wasn't getting the odds to draw to his 3 outs anywhere in the hand. If he had AJ, then he didn't have the odds on the turn to call. If he had a four in his hand he probably could have made more money by raising somewhere (other than the single BB he made on the river).

If you lost, you probably got sucked out on. Realize that this is a winning situation for you.

My line:
Exactly how you played it.

[sweave1]

* grunch*

without read i say no i call to be sure with 2 pair. i play the same.

sweave1

[deepsquat]

If it was just HU id call.

The problem is its unlikely BB is bluff raising with CO still to act, thats what made this a questionable hand for me.

[OrianasDaad]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Yeah I am long winded today. This is simple math dude. You only have to win this hand 1 out of 10 times to be right on this call. Do you think you'll be good 1 in 10?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite, but if he's got a set he could have made more money in the hand. I'd 3-bet a raise on the turn from him (with no reads) and play the river the same way. If he's drawing to an ace, then he's made some bad plays in the hand, and any -EV he has is good for me. These mistakes he has made makes up for the few % points I need to make a strict mathematical call.

[Shillx]

I would certainly call this raise against a thinking player. The reason why is because the probability that we have an overpair goes up after we bet the turn. Obviously it is more convincing with more flop callers, but you should understand the concept. A thinking player will know this and might try to move us off QQ or KK with a bluff. Against a bad passive player you should be able to fold here. Against a random bad player (someone who uses aggression at the wrong times) you should call here imo.

Brad

[Chris Daddy Cool]

against a good player i would check this river and induce a bluff.

against a really bad player i would bet and call a raise because bad players do crazy things.

against mediocre players i would value bet and fold to a raise.

if i bet this river and got coldcalled by the guy behind i would fold.

if i bet the river, got called, and then got raised by the guy behind, i would fold.