Easy Push w/Trash?

[Augie]

$22 NLHE SNG on EuroBet, we have reached the Bubble. Blinds are 200-400.

Stack Sizes, after posting blinds:

UTG - 4996
Button - 420
SB(Hero) - 1524
BB - 460

UTG and Button both fold, and I push with T /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and I am about 90% sure I will be called.

Bad play or Easy Push?

Augie

[curtains]

easy push

[Matt Walker]

If you consider making him throw the other 24 chips he has left a push, then yes this is an easy push.

[Augie]

Matt Walker,

The stack sizes listed are AFTER posting the blinds, so I need to put in 660 (leaving me with 864) to put him allin. He has 460 left to call with.

Augie

[microbet]

At 90% sure he will call it is a good push. If you get to about 95% sure he will call it isn't. You were probably exagerating though and at like 75% sure he will call it is a clear push.

[curtains]

? Even if he calls 100% its a clear push, you have ten high!!

[microbet]

Maybe, but that's not what SNG powertools says. You did get that the stacks were after posting right?

[curtains]

No I didnt. But okay even in that case its very clear the BB will fold a lot because the shortstack will be forced in on the next round of blinds.

[Augie]

microbet,

Why is it not a good push if I'm 95% sure he will call, but good at 90%? Just wondering how you reach that conclusion.

Using SNG Power Tools (and setting the BBs calling range at 100%):

$EV Fold - 26.9%/$53.86

$EV Push - 28.0%/$55.98

$EV No Call - 33.2%/$66

$EV Diff. - +1.1%/+$2.12

So, this is a clear push, yes? And if there is any chance he doesn't call, it only gets better (notice $EV No Call).

Or, is the gain in EV too small to justify this push?

Besides the slight gain in EV, I also considered the fact that I could not be busted out on that hand, and if I did lose that hand, I would still have 864 in chips, whereas the button had 420, and would be hitting the BB before me.

Any other thoughts are appreciated,

Augie

[microbet]

Well, one of us (or eastbay) is making a slight mistake.

I get $EV fold = $53.36

$EV push = $53.19 if you putting in a wierd huge range, $52.54 if you just put in all the hands. Is there away to do 'all'? I tried 'all' and 'random' and it didn't work.

And to curtains, I agree there is more than enough fold equity here to make it an easy push.

[Nottom]

If you think you get called 90% and he has an 860 chip stack then its really close.

The thing is hes not calling anywhere near 90%, so you should push.

[curtains]

An asterik is all hands.

[Augie]

microbet,

Just rechecked everything in the Power Tools, and it is coming out the same as last time for me. Although, perhaps the way I am setting up his calling range is goofing up the software???

To set a players calling range to All Hands, I've been typing in this:

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,82+,72+,62+,52+,42+,32

Don't know if that is the best way, or correct way to do this, but I thought I would cover all the bases.

Augie

[microbet]

Arg, I should have figured. Computer geek. Wildcard.

Many thanks.

* gives me the same $52.54 as typing in all the hands.

[Augie]

Just tried it with an asterik, same result for me.

Augie

[microbet]

Well, the $EV for folding is different so there is something else wrong/different.

Here's all my info
$20 + 2, 4 players, T2o, Raise, 200/400, BB-860, SB-1724,BTN-420,CO-4996

[Augie]

microbet,

Here's all my info
$20+2, 4 players, T2o, Raise, 200/400, BB-460, SB-1524,BTN-420,CO-4996

So, basically, I've been screwing up by subtracting the blind from the stack size? When entering each players chips, you enter whatever the stack sizes are Before Posting the Blinds??? /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Pffffft, arrrrrg, uggggh - please confirm the correct way to do this.

Augie

[microbet]

I've only had the thing for a couple days now, but that's what I thought. I could check by doing the ICM calcs without it, but not until my 2 year old daughter stops climbing all over me and demanding to go into a tent we have set up in our back yard.

If no one has answered by the time I get the chance I'll do it.

[microbet]

Ok
T2o vs random wins 41.7%
push win $EV = .352, lose = .199
.352 x .417 + .199 x .583 = .263

26.3%/$52.54 is what SNG powertools gave me. So I think it is right to put stacks in before blinds and I think Eastbay's program agrees with Dethgrind's website and Pokerstove (unless there are balancing errors).