Textbook Clarkmeister therom #2 application?

[A_C_Slater]

Paradise Poker $1/2 ---ten handed

MP3 is noted as "solid" by me, which means I have played many hands with him and have not seen any glaring mistakes.

SB is unknown.


5 folds, MP3 calls (well he open limps in the HJ here, maybe he ain't so solid afterall, weak tight maybe?) CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, I check in BB with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif


(3 SB)
3 players--- FLOP: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif


SB checks, AC bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, AC calls.


(4.5 BB)
2 players--- TURN: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif


AC bets.......?


Planning to fold to a raise of course.

[Dunno]

I would check this and fold to the raise. u have no /images/graemlins/club.gif and makes his hand a winner if it holds any /images/graemlins/club.gif at all. He could also have a Q and then ur drawing slim. The pot isnt to large either so i dont think u should try to outplay him.

GL // Dunno

[ArturiusX]

Very interesting. Checking is begging to be bet into, so maybe bet/fold to the raise is the best line...

I'm not entirely convinced you have the best hand, irregardless of the flush, which leads me to check/fold.

[tijean]

I think I let this one go. All he needs is a club - doesn't have to be a high club, or well-played, just a club.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Paradise Poker $1/2 ---ten handed

MP3 is noted as "solid" by me, which means I have played many hands with him and have not seen any glaring mistakes.

SB is unknown.


5 folds, MP3 calls (well he open limps in the HJ here, maybe he ain't so solid afterall, weak tight maybe?) CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, I check in BB with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif


(3 SB)
3 players--- FLOP: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif


SB checks, AC bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, AC calls.


(4.5 BB)
2 players--- TURN: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif


AC bets.......?


Planning to fold to a raise of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where Clark's #2 is published, but the Clark Theorem I know only applies to the river.

That being said, I think a bet-fold here is fine against most players.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I let this one go. All he needs is a club - doesn't have to be a high club, or well-played, just a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you aware of the odds that he has this club? There's only a 20% or so chance.

[wyoak]

bet/fold. 1:4.5 seems like pretty good odds here. if it was 3 or 3.5 i'd likely check/fold.

[Dunno]

Well i am awere of that but he raised the flop! this could be to protect his hand from a clubdraw and the fact that he has top pair.
He could also jamming the pot or make a semibluff w the draw.

well bet and fold to a reraise isnt a bad line but i dont think its worth it.

[tijean]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you aware of the odds that he has this club? There's only a 20% or so chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

How close to 20%? We're only getting 4-1 on a bet here.

Given that he also raised the monochrome flop with an overcard to our pair (which I missed the first time), I'm not putting anymore money in this pot.

[NAU_Player]

grunching

Hero is OOP against a 'solid' player and has middle pair.
Facing a flop raise on a coordinated board with a marginal hand that has very little chance of being good @ SD makes this an easy check/fold on the turn. the pot is small and you dont win often enough to be profitable in this situation.

edit: i think bet/fold has it's merits too, but what do you do on the river if he just calls the turn?

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
edit: i think bet/fold has it's merits too, but what do you do on the river if he just calls the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to check/fold. Bet/folding the turn and then check/folding the river is my line here.

[A_C_Slater]

I know that CO has at least a queen. If he calls the turn then I check/fold river unimproved.

[arcticfox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I let this one go. All he needs is a club - doesn't have to be a high club, or well-played, just a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you aware of the odds that he has this club? There's only a 20% or so chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 9 clubs not accounted for, and 46 cards not accounted for. If he held only one card then the close to 20% would be correct, with 2 cards its a 35% chance.

[Malachii]

Could someone post the link to the theorem? Thanks.

[Dunno]

yes but after the turn is a blank we only have the river left and i think its 18% to catch... u guys can correct me if im wrong. I still think check fold is better the put another bet in jeperdy...

[Dunno]

U didnt get i showdown here? Now im exited what he had /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[arcticfox]

[ QUOTE ]
yes but after the turn is a blank we only have the river left and i think its 18% to catch... u guys can correct me if im wrong. I still think check fold is better the put another bet in jeperdy...

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? We are talking about the chances that villain holds a club, not what comes on the river.

[Wetdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone post the link to the theorem? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I would like to know the link also. I tried searching the archives, but with Clark having a jillion posts and "theorum" has only an eighth of a jillion. If you have it bookmarked, could you post it here please.