J2o and it's 9 ways

[PokerBob]

What do you do here? First hand, no reads.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero ?????

[CallMeIshmael]

I think I just bet with the intention of 3-betting.

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I just bet with the intention of 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

[einbert]

I bet.

[Argus]

Is this a trick question?

If it were live you might want to ask how much you can raise for full effect.

[PotatoStew]

My first instinct is to say "bet." However, with a non-small pot, and lots of people in, and a very vulnerable hand, might this be a candidate for checking the flop and betting/raising the turn if a non-threatening card comes? Or checking here, and raising a LP flop bet (if one comes)?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a trick question?

If it were live you might want to ask how much you can raise for full effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't raise here.

[jordanx]

Bet.

Check raise would be optimal, but you can't be sure if/who will bet this flop.

[Argus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a trick question?

If it were live you might want to ask how much you can raise for full effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, but it's a pretty common question from the type of players that sit at 9 handed tables. It increases the likelihood of someone incorrectly folding a king.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a trick question?

If it were live you might want to ask how much you can raise for full effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, but it's a pretty common question from the type of players that sit at 9 handed tables. It increases the likelihood of someone incorrectly folding a king.

[/ QUOTE ]

At a live low limit table, you've just increased the probability of that happening from 0 to, well to 0. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[pokerstudAA]

Sooooo mant limpers.....I am going against the crowd and say check/call and check/raise a safe turn card. Heros hand is not very good and is very vulnerable. Rest assured one of the 9 people will bet their draw on this flop.

The only cards hero wants to see on the turn are a J or a 2. Lots of cards can hit Kx or Jx with a higher two pair.


Bad cards for hero. Any ace (4). Any ten (4). Any king (4) . Any club (6 more). Like 18 cards can come off that suck. Not counting the cards that give Kx or Jx the higer two pair. Why would you want to bet into this flop when any possible draw will raise?

Doesn't hero's equity increse substantially after the turn blanks?

[w_alloy]

This is tough, I go for a check-raise here, if you bet out you are giving people with 1 pair odds to draw to their 5 outs.

I believe there is a real chance that it will check around, especially given how passive the table was pre-flop, but i think most kings will bet and its a risk you should take.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't hero's equity increse substantially after the turn blanks?

[/ QUOTE ]


I liked your idea a lot. But, oddly, no!

Against random hands, it went from 40% -&gt; 46%. With an offsuit five.

I dont know how much this changes with actual hand distributions.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe there is a real chance that it will check around

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop is going to be bet A LOT, even at passive tables.

[mr pink]

i'd check and see what develops.

i'd be looking to check/raise a LP bet or check/call an EP bet.

if you check/call, i prefer a stop and go on the turn over a check/raise (unless you spike a jack or deuce)

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe there is a real chance that it will check around

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop is going to be bet A LOT, even at passive tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

That flop is going to be bet and probably raised once hero checks. Either a draw will bet and a KQ will raise or a KQ will bet and the draw will raise. No way is that getting checked through.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
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Doesn't hero's equity increse substantially after the turn blanks?

[/ QUOTE ]


I liked your idea a lot. But, oddly, no!

Against random hands, it went from 40% -&gt; 46%. With an offsuit five.

I dont know how much this changes with actual hand distributions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although this surprises me, I wonder if part of the reason Hero's equity doesn't go up more on a turn blank is that his own chances of improving go down.

Also, versus 8 random hands, it's hard to confidently call any card a "blank."

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]
That flop is going to be bet and probably raised once hero checks. Either a draw will bet and a KQ will raise or a KQ will bet and the draw will raise. No way is that getting checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

The chances of someone having an oesd or flush draw is, surprisingly, around 50%. The chances of someone having two clubs, assuming random hands, is 10/47*9/46, is about 4.1%, or a little more than 1 out of 25. Since the chance that our opponents have suited cards, because of the preflop play, is much higher than random cards, we can almost double this to 1/15. So the chance someone has two clubs would then be 1-(14/15)^8, which equals about 42%. If you dont include the SB in this (who cant bet the flop) then it is 38%. Since QT is the only hand that makes an oesd, and the chances someone holds this hand are less then 8%, the chance of someone holding an oesd or flush draw is less then 50%.

Further, i think the chances of someone betting a K from the next 4 possitions is very low, since the will probable check a small king, check raise a large king (although they may bet), and only bet a middle king (and perhaps not even then). They will obviously not bet a jack. The odds of someone having a king from random hands is 1-(44/47*43/46), which equals about 12%. This means there is a 60% chance someone behind you has a king, assuming slightly weighted random cards. If they will only bet it 50% (say they bet KT-K7, plus sometimes KQ or AK and sometimes lower Kings) frome mp, and 80% for late (a king below 8 could check for fear of a c/r with 9 people in). Assume the draws discussed earlier have an 80% of being bet (I think this is a bit high, some might try for a free card, not want to force people out, or try for a c/r, although the first two and often the last would be incorrect).

This would mean there would be a about a 72% the flop would be bet from a K or a draw (I can walk you throught the final calulations if anyone wants). You can add 8% for sets, two pair, and the like when they arent check raised. This brings us to 80%.

Granted, I made a ton of assumtions and didnt account for some things that could cause someone to bet (a fool with a gutshot or J in lp might try to bet, for example, but i think there is a low likelyhood of this). I mostly did this cause I've always been curious and learned from doing the calculations. If I made any mistakes in assumtion or math feel free to tell me.

I didnt say there was a great chance, just that it was "real". To me this means worth thinking about. I say 20% qualifies.

[casinogosain]

I think a leading the flop is good here, and 3-betting is not a bad plan. I agree that just about any turn is a scary card. Depending on how much you thin the field after the flop lead/3bet, I lead into two or less people, and check/call the rest of the way. Unless its super-obvious that I'm beat. Bottom two sucks.

-Ash


[ QUOTE ]
What do you do here? First hand, no reads.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero ?????

[/ QUOTE ]

[SmileyEH]

Start pushing the bet button. Use the raise button if you can. If you can't bet or raise anymore you'll have to call (do this ONLY in extreme circumstances ie; capped betting). You'll need to continue to bet/raise assault at the soonest oppourtunity however (possibly next street).

-SmileyEH

[DMBFan23]

the more aggressive the opponents the more it's bet-3bet.

the more passive the opponents for me, the more I like a C/R because someone is more likely to bet an un-bet flop than they are to raise me, especially as a blind who leads into the field.

I slightly favor bet-3betting, but both options win the cash money and are good to mix it up. the only option I don't like is check call.

[mtdoak]

This is a big field. You don't want to see another club (10 cards), another K (3 cards), an A (3 cards), or a 9 (3 cards). Thats 19 cards on the turn (about 40% of the deck) that handcuff your hand and can bring you in for an expensive 2nd best hand. I wait for a rock to fall on the turn and then let'em have it.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Heros hand is not very good and is very vulnerable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has a freaking monster.

[sfer]

The pot is a decent size, no one has shown any interest in their hand, and you flopped a monster. You bet. What you do after depends on who raises, where they raise, who calls behind them, what those calls mean, and a million other things. But right now, this is a clear bet.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
That flop is going to be bet and probably raised once hero checks. Either a draw will bet and a KQ will raise or a KQ will bet and the draw will raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is freakin hilarious. I mean, how many see the royal couple under the bed here?

[w_alloy]

I think its safe to assume this is a passive table given the pre-flop play. This could obviously be wrong, but in poker you often have to act on imperfect information.

I think the chance someone will raise an ep bet with this big of a field is too low. You will fold everyone who doesnt have a turn draw and everyone else who has a draw, including any pair, will call. If you are raised, you could be beat (a little pessimistic but remember, 8 hands is a lot to beat).

I think you need to hope for an lp bet and raise to fold out the better two-pair draw. Theres too great a chance you'll whiff on the 3-bet try with a passive table. It is crucial to this hand that you thin the field so you dont have to worry about "blanks" beating you. Check raising will give more information about people's holdings.

[sthief09]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[PokerBob]

I decided to gamble and go for the c/r. My hope was that a bet would come from LP and I could face the field with 2 cold. IT didn't work.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Button calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 folds, Button folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Jh 2c (two pair, jacks and twos).
UTG has Qh Th (straight, king high).
Outcome: UTG wins 17.50 BB. </font>

[sthief09]

with one pair you might want to face the field with 2 cold. with 2 pair you can be content with pumping the pot by betting and 3-betting if necessary

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
with one pair you might want to face the field with 2 cold. with 2 pair you can be content with pumping the pot by betting and 3-betting if necessary

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think leading may have been better. That board was so draw-heavy, that I'm not sure I could have put anyone but gutshots in an unprofitable-to-call situation. I should have just fired and prayed for small red cards.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a trick question?

If it were live you might want to ask how much you can raise for full effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OP needs to check-raise himself

[Reef]

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I think I just bet with the intention of 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

this looks correct

[StellarWind]

I go for the checkraise on the flop. I expect someone to bet this flop and I don't greatly care who it is. It's good to knock people out and it's good to make people pay two bets to chase me.

Betting with the idea of 3-betting is another good plan.

Checkcalling is ridiculous. Note that while you are afraid of many cards, you don't have a very good idea of what will actually beat you. Filling would be good and a king would be very bad. Other than that you cannot expect the turn card to be very enlightening. That consideration and your poor position should dissuade you from waiting until the turn to act.

[PotatoStew]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero has a freaking monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bottom two pair is a monster? I'm going to have to disagree with this. His hand is very vulnerable, as has been pointed out, and it seems kind of strange to call a hand that vulnerable a "monster".