STEP 5 BUBBLE HAND WHAT DO I DO???

[raptor517]

well, i have been playing a few step 5s the last couple days, and have been doing absolutely terrible, but have managed to get it in with the best of it all but one time. this hand left me for a loss, and i wasnt sure what to do. id love to create a discussion. holla

***** Hand History for Game 1919774011 *****
NL Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:11444041 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, April 19, 18:28:42 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 #983602 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 5: VaTech14 ( $6355 )
Seat 9: UncleHowie ( $660 )
Seat 7: sean0hara ( $1945 )
Seat 3: craizyraizy ( $735 )
Seat 1: wtf_PWND ( $305 )
Trny:11444041 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to wtf_PWND [ 9c Ks ]
VaTech14 is all-In [6355]
sean0hara folds.
UncleHowie folds.
wtf_PWND ?????

[Voltron87]

Is this a joke?

[john_]

call and get busted?

How many hands are left at level 6?

[pooh74]

are you the SB here? if yes u have 150 more after posting? dont really think it matters much what u do, but of course u call.

[raptor517]

ok, since so many people think this is an easy call, im going to throw in a few things to look at. craizy isnt concerned about making the money. he is going to get it in there with a hand he figures to be the best so he can give himself the best chance to win. unclehowie wont be folding out his chips either. if i do fold, there is a DECENT chance, but not a great chance, the i can make the money by them being too agressive. step 5s are like that. however, vatech was pushing any 2 right there, and i think its an easy call. however, some better players have thought that it could be quite a bit closer than an easy call. make sure to analyze every possible situation before jumping at an easy call conclusion. holla

[john_]

i don't think this is easy at all, its very complicated and read dependent.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think this is easy at all, its very complicated and read dependent.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[Irieguy]

Since you're not allowed to comment on this forum without using the term "clear," "obvious," or "auto..."

Clear fold.

I'll explain if a whole bunch of people call me names.

Irieguy

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll explain if a whole bunch of people call me names.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

idiot, moron, clown, jackass, tool

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you're not allowed to comment on this forum without using the term "clear," "obvious," or "auto..."

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer "insta-".

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you're not allowed to comment on this forum without using the term "clear," "obvious," or "auto..."

Clear fold.

I'll explain if a whole bunch of people call me names.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, I am still assuming he is in SB here? Second, how many step 5 places pay? (sorry, im a ps player who cant figure out un-converted hand histories).

Oh, and Ill just get it out of the way before I decide for myself...Irie, ur a dufus head...

[Voltron87]

I thought this was a joke because of the text that preceded it, not because of the strategy question. All the "I know I'm a winning player, Ive gotten my money in as a favorite all but once..."

[john_]

I'd like to hear your explanation...they can outfold you even if blinds go up...when it comes around to your bb if you win you can fold the SB there but uh I don't know.

[raptor517]

4 places pay. i think this decision can go either way really, and it depends on the players you are playing against. i wanted to open this discussion to analyze both perspectives. holla

[citanul]

4 places pay. 1200 1800 2500 4500 if i recall correctly.

citanul

[Voltron87]

I can't answer because

1. I don't know how many places this plays.
2. I have played 3 step 5s in my life, and know nothing about the players.

Step 5s play much differently than the 215s, or any other level, so you can's answer this unless you have played a bunch of them.

[pooh74]

is the next blind level 200-400 no antes? when? need to know this stuff...its important here.

[raptor517]

lol, what the hell voltron, i was just spouting about how ive been running, and im bitter over my massive sample. ignore the text, thats clearly not what the thread is about. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

Goodness.

I think this is a fold. I don't think it's 'clear' but I do think it's a fold...

Me no likie this hand /images/graemlins/frown.gif...

By folding you give yourself a better shot @ $$ rather than a not so great shot at a bit more $$...

One other piece of info I'd love to know is when are the blinds goin' up?

Yugoslav

[valenzuela]

ure an idiot.

[john_]

blinds don't go up for another 6 hands...

[Jason Strasser]

This type of spot is very close and marginal and yadda yadda. I bet you could come up with a mathematical answer using some model or something but the reality is that this is not the type of decision that will make or break you in the long run. The thing you need to look into is how you got so low, and were there other steal opps you avoided earlier that are clearly more +EV than either of your two options here.

I'd also like to say that turning down your 12 or 16 tables or whatever at 200 or 100 sngs is prolly much higher EV then you opening one or two step 5s. But you probably know this.

[raptor517]

what happened to get me this low was i pushed, got called, and lost, leaving me 600ish chips. got 58 in the BB, folded to a push by vatech. so now we are in my sb, where i face one of them dadburn decision. holla

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to hear your explanation...they can outfold you even if blinds go up...when it comes around to your bb if you win you can fold the SB there but uh I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right... but these guys won't try to outfold you.

You have very little equity in the big money, and a double up here won't help that enough to justify risking your reasonable chance of getting 4th.

Big stack is pushing every hand, and all the others are going to race if they feel they are well ahead. that's a cool situation to be in with 155 chips left and 5 players. In fact, I kinda like Raptor's chances of getting 3rd if he folds this hand.

You really do have to fold with this chip situation and these players. Just ask skipperbob, who has a 19.2% 4th place finish rate in the step 5's.

Irieguy

[john_]

Maybe its marginal, maybe its not...but if you don't do the math how would you actually know?

[Jason Strasser]

Fair.

I just sometimes think what you decide to do here wont really effect too much. It's also good to know that Va tech is a good player and will do this with any 2, as he should... Hand strengths here really dont matter too much imo.

[Voltron87]

Now that I know that 4 make the money, I fold. If one of the other two SSs will not try to outfold you, it is a definite fold. If they will try to outfold you I would call. VA has any two here, and you are ahead of any two but if you call and win your share of the prizepool is still tiny at 600ish chips. So you're risking being out of the tourney for a marginally better share of the prizepool. If doubling up here would help you more in terms of getting 2 or 1, I would lean towards calling, but since it doesn't, fold.

[skipperbob]

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif..."OMFG"...Are you people serious?...Anybody that doesn't see this as a clearhollawtf FOLD shouldn't be playing the Steps....And, poor-poor YUGO, you sweet innocent gay child, WTF are you thinking?? HOLLA /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[skipperbob]

Dear Mr. Lunatic: SrohpatemruoygniximerauoY

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
And, poor-poor YUGO, you sweet innocent gay child, WTF are you thinking?? HOLLA /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I'm on board with the whole 'fold' concept. To quote from my initial post in this thread:

[ QUOTE ]

I think this is a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I felt it was 'close' due to the fact I don't play STEP 5s and wasn't sure just how aggressive all the other shortys would be - I just was going on the prize structure and what I would do in that situation...

Also, please check out my avatar...clearly I'm NOT gay, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

In other words, I love having hot, hot sex with hot, hot <font color="red"> women </font>.....

Just so there is no confusion on this matter again, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]

Also, please check out my avatar...clearly I'm NOT gay, .

In other words, I love having hot, hot sex with hot, hot women .....

Just so there is no confusion on this matter again, .

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds made up

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Also, please check out my avatar...clearly I'm NOT gay, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

In other words, I love having hot, hot sex with hot, hot <font color="red"> women </font>.....

Just so there is no confusion on this matter again, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Yugo... this isn't the way closet gays sound at all. I miss the Siegfried and Roy avatar: at least it was honest.

Irieguy

[skipperbob]

Your avatar has as much relevance to your sexual persuasion (not that there's anything wrong with that) as Irieguy's does to bowling /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[raptor517]

actually my share of the pot would be a bit closer to 915, which is fairly significant. holla

[adanthar]

This is a math problem but I'll be damned if I'm gonna do it.

The way to actually solve it is to assign a percentage for the amount of times one or both of the crazy/uncle combo will call a push before you're the BB, and how their hands are likely to hold up against the big stack.

Based on me thinking this over for 10 seconds, I'd fold.

[Gramps]

Maybe the difference bewteen 0% and 12% in the Step 5's isn't the "calling deterrent" that 0% to 20% is in SNGs on the bubble, but the other two short stacks would have to be idiots to call the big stack or push on a big stack without a monster hand before Hero is forced all-in first in the BB for 155. And when that forced all-in happens, the other short stacks should have little fear of jumping in with a good-not-great hand, b/c if a 3rd player is involved, Hero would have to beat both, and the other short stack would have to lose to finish 5th.

Besides, UTG probably didn't look at his cards for all intents and purposes, and K9o is is around 58% against a random hand. Maybe BB will be brave and jump in too (f-ing things up, b/c then Hero would have to beat both to not finish 5th), but most people don't make that play without a pretty strong hand.

Plus, if Hero calls with K9o against UTG, he triples up to 910, and now has a slight edge on the other two short stacks for 3rd. 2nd is a possibility as well. Folding to 155...those shots are severely reduced. While calling with K9o and winning doesn't guarantee 4th place either...you're going to get at least 4th the vast majority of the time.

Unless the other two short stacks are morons that don't like being run over, I'd "insta-call" with my K9o. Actually, I'd think about it for a couple of seconds to be sure, then I'd call...

...But then, I'm a "fear of any ROR" p-ssy who's still just 6-tabling in the 109s and 215s and hasn't played a Step-5 yet...

[adanthar]

You may be 58% against a random hand, but you're not 58% against a random hand and a top 80% hand, which is what craizy is probably calling with.

[bigdarren]

interesting and all...... what happened.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
You may be 58% against a random hand, but you're not 58% against a random hand and a top 80% hand, which is what craizy is probably calling with.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. I'd argue though that most players in crazy's spot would call with only premium Aces/good pairs, even though they should call with a much wider range of hands, as they get scared on the bubble with a push and a call (or don't think about the fact that they only get 5th if they finish 3rd of 3 on the hand, and the short stack gets 1st).

If this player is sharp enough to call with a much wider range of hands, that goes against what I'm assuming and makes calling a much worse play than against a scared BB.

[Blarg]

You've got a full round of people with very low stacks having a chance to bust themselves out before it comes back to you being forced into a hand. You might even try to bust some of them out yourself.

I think I'd cross my fingers and hope some of the short stacks bust out, getting me in or closer to the money. Lord knows the big stack can afford to call any of their all-ins just on the chance to bust them out.

If you call the big stack now, you don't win all that much. But if you don't, you may be around to have the last laugh after others bust out. I think the value of survival is worth more than the value of 600 chips here. And you still have the BB to act behind you, so you don't know for sure that you will be heads up anyway.

I'm taking the chicken posture on this one and seeing if waiting can sneak me closer to the money before my turn even comes around.

[minwoo]

VaTech14 - anyone know who this kid is? Is he a 2+2er?
I thougth I was the only one who played SNGs seriously at this school. But I've seen VaTech on the Party leaderboard a couple of times now and...wow, I guess he does Step 5s. Would love to meet this guy.

[john_]

[ QUOTE ]
VaTech14 - anyone know who this kid is? Is he a 2+2er?
I thougth I was the only one who played SNGs seriously at this school. But I've seen VaTech on the Party leaderboard a couple of times now and...wow, I guess he does Step 5s. Would love to meet this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

He seems pretty solid from what I've seen. You are not alone...

[Voltron87]

Yeah I didn't really check where the button was or any of that useless crap. 900&gt;600, but you're still a sitting duck against va and sean. Close, but fold. gangster?

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, please check out my avatar...clearly I'm NOT gay, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

In other words, I love having hot, hot sex with hot, hot <font color="red"> women </font>.....

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. Do you see why?

[networkman]

I saw you play this last night, I was too tired to play so I watched a couple step 5's.

I'm a minnow from the 20's and 30's but I thought for sure you would fold without a premium holding, I know I would've. Now, after reading this thread, I'm not so sure.