Riding the Beast [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:18 PM

pf capper is a TAG, and I think a 2+2'er. Other player is a retard (55/2).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ??????
What's your plan the rest of the way?

ErrantNight

04-19-2005, 05:22 PM

fast play.

MoreWineII

04-19-2005, 05:23 PM

He's expecting you to raise here, so I raise. I hope he doesn't believe me. I hope neither of them believe me.

If he three-bets, I call and raise the turn and don't look back.

Emmitt2222

04-19-2005, 05:25 PM

After thinking about fastplaying, and then switching to raising the turn, I am going back to fastplaying. Raising the turn may get both of them to fold, but if you raise now there is a good chance BB is dumb enough to call and then keep calling. I say raise it now and villian may keep going at you with AK. If he 3bets I call and raise the turn.

meep_42

04-19-2005, 05:27 PM

The only point at which i'm hitting the call button is if i'm 3-bet on the flop. Other than that, hit the button on the right.

-d

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:29 PM

Raise it up, LP's not going anywhere and MP1 probably won't bet the turn with JJ-KK but he'll give you action with AK.

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pf capper is a TAG, and I think a 2+2'er. Other player is a retard (55/2).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ??????
What's your plan the rest of the way?

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of AK being out there are VERY low. KK is most likely.

Main villain is a good player. He surely knows I am no (major) dummy. If show too much aggression, he will dump KK-QQ. The question is when

BB is a retard. How much will he call?

TStoneMBD

04-19-2005, 05:37 PM

raise the turn

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The question is when BB is a retard. How much will he call?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience he's more likely to call two cold on the flop than he is to call even one on the turn. If you're lucky he'll have a broadway gutshot and will be seeing the river no matter what, or he'll have a ten and will give you a good amount of action.

Slowplaying can only hurt your value here IMO.

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

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But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

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If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

Catt

04-19-2005, 05:42 PM

I like the flop raise, calling a 3-bet, and raising the turn (and any other bets that come in).

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of AK being out there are VERY low. KK is most likely.

Main villain is a good player. He surely knows I am no (major) dummy. If show too much aggression, he will dump KK-QQ. The question is when

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say, isn't it? Given that he might give me all the action I want and I cannot predict when he'l slow down or ditch his hand, the only "slowing down" I am willing to do is smooth-calling the flop 3-bet if it comes. Calling the flop bet (instead of raising) will set off far more alarm bells if you pop the turn than will raising and calling the 3-bet.

[ QUOTE ]
BB is a retard. How much will he call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone can answer this? Pray he has broadways and chases a straight, but don't miss a raise trying to keep him in.

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he'll call you down the whole way with an unimproved JJ-KK, I think that raising the must certainly be correct.

MarcJ

04-19-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only point at which i'm hitting the call button is if i'm 3-bet on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain, What could he have that would make you call it down instead of cap? Would he cap pf with 10,10? Or are you saying call to extract more in the later streets?

coolhanded

04-19-2005, 05:46 PM

I like raising the flop. Retard will likely think you are trying to get rid of him with a raise and should call 1 BB here (assuming read jives with that). Plus raising in your spot with KK, QQ, or JJ is fairly common, so one/both may doubt you have an A (much less 2). Go Go Go.

Catt

04-19-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what is your question? Call the flop and raise the turn. I personally wouldn't be convinced that he goes into check-call mode against a single flop raise given the read provided, but if you're certain (in the absence of the rare AK), then why consider raising the flop? I think you're more likely to get 3-bet and see a turn lead than him check-calling down based on "he is a TAG and I think a 2+2er," but if your read is accurate then the hand sort of plays itself, doesn't it?

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then what is your question? Call the flop and raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, if he will fold JJ-KK to the turn raise? Is that an unreasonable assumption?

He will certainly at least fold JJ to it, if he is a reasonable TAG.

MoreWineII

04-19-2005, 05:49 PM

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop. Retard will likely think you are trying to get rid of him with a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Retard very likely does not make this connection.

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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raise the turn

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But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you smooth-call, is he betting JJ-KK into you on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. Remeber, HE capped pf, not me. I think that this is significant.

Nick C

04-19-2005, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of AK being out there are VERY low. KK is most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a good point. However, I'm going to quibble a little with the capitalized "VERY," for these reasons:

(1) There are 4 available combinations of AK. KK, QQ, and JJ have 6 available combinations each, but the 18-to-4 ratio isn't that pronounced when we take into account that . . .

(2) Villain might not be so eager to bet QQ and JJ, for instance, into a preflop 3-bettor on that board. Actually, I'm not sure he'd want to fire with KK, either. (And, come to think of it, maybe he would try firing with QQ/JJ to try to push you off of KK.)

Hmm. I'm not sure how to assess the likelihood of his various holdings, as it turns out. But I don't think AK is so very unlikely.

All the same, I will admit that my first instinct was to just call the flop bet. I started changing my mind when the consensus began going the other way and I read some of the arguments.

In any event, I think this may be one of those spots where you're going to win the pot unless you run into some really bad luck (such as being up against or going on to lose to quad tens), but it might be difficult to win a lot of additional postflop bets, no matter what you do.

MoreWineII

04-19-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you smooth-call, is he betting JJ-KK into you on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. Remeber, HE capped pf, not me. I think that this is significant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm bassackwards, but I'm almost more wary of the guy who smooth-called my flop bet than the guy who auto-raised it.

I know he capped preflop, which probably means JJ-KK. As you said, AK is unlikely. A lot of players would be hard-pressed to fire again with those hands with an ace on board. Maybe this guy's different, I dunno. I still raise the flop.

Oh, and I agree with this 100%

[ QUOTE ]
I think this may be one of those spots where you're going to win the pot unless you run into some really bad luck (such as being up against or going on to lose to quad tens), but it might be difficult to win a lot of additional postflop bets, no matter what you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

einbert

04-19-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost more wary of the guy who smooth-called my flop bet than the guy who auto-raised it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. Especially a good TAG on a fairly drawless board.

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

But how likely is it that the turn will even be bet before the action gets to hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise the flop, he is check/calling the whole way unless he has the VERY unlikely AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you smooth-call, is he betting JJ-KK into you on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. Remeber, HE capped pf, not me. I think that this is significant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm bassackwards, but I'm almost more wary of the guy who smooth-called my flop bet than the guy who auto-raised it.

I know he capped preflop, which probably means JJ-KK. As you said, AK is unlikely. A lot of players would be hard-pressed to fire again with those hands with an ace on board. Maybe this guy's different, I dunno. I still raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. I think I see your point. If he has KK-JJ, he is likely going to SD, and will check/call after I raise the flop.

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost more wary of the guy who smooth-called my flop bet than the guy who auto-raised it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. Especially a good TAG on a fairly drawless board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He capped pf. I could easily have AQs here and be fearing domination.

meep_42

04-19-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only point at which i'm hitting the call button is if i'm 3-bet on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain, What could he have that would make you call it down instead of cap? Would he cap pf with 10,10? Or are you saying call to extract more in the later streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I want him to bet the turn, he's probably not doing that with AK if I cap on the flop.

-d

Catt

04-19-2005, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then what is your question? Call the flop and raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, if he will fold JJ-KK to the turn raise? Is that an unreasonable assumption?

He will certainly at least fold JJ to it, if he is a reasonable TAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't be certain he is folding at that point, even as a reasonable TAG. There's going to be something like 9 - 11 BBs in the pot when it comes back to him after a turn raise. We know he has a read on PokerBob as "no dummy," and we suspect Villain is a 2+2er. Does he ditch to the turn raise especially if Donk is padding the pot? Or does he then go into the ck-cl mode PB expects? Villain raised PF and got what could be intrepreted as an isolation raise from PokerBob. In the very happy circumstance that the turn is a broadway, I think he's even less likely to fold to the turn raise.

Conversely, with Villain knowing that PB is not a dummy, what has Hero been calling with through the flop and turn? I'd be pretty damn suspicious that PB 3-bet pre-flop, and then called a flop of ATT and called the turn (though less worried if the turn was a broadway). I suppose Villain can put him on QQ or JJ, maybe something like KQs, but doesn't the dawning realization of A-something or a T come into play here?

I would simply be very hard-pressed to agree that this Villain would go into ck-cl mode to a flop raise, or would be tremendously likely to pitch his premium hand to a turn raise (and even less so if Donk comes along). And if we do think he goes into ck-cl mode to a flop raise, aren't we better off than just calling to the river and then raising there (or going for the overcall)? I think we're missing some bets from the pf capper in a misguided effort to either (1) keep a retard in when there is no way we can predict what he is going to fold to or call; or (2) waiting to show aggression until the river in the hopes that TAG will call a river raise if Donk goes away.

jt1

04-19-2005, 06:55 PM

I always wait for the turn. I hear all the arguments and don't disagree with any of them. But with my money, Slowplaying gives bb an opportunity to improve and the TAG as well. Two paints will bet into you and 88 or 99 will fold to a raise but just might (though doubtful) bet again on the turn. Furthermore the retard might call a double bet on the turn with his gutshot.

PokerBob

04-19-2005, 07:19 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

River: (9.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB

jordanx

04-19-2005, 07:49 PM

I think your line and a flop raise line would pay you the same in this situation.

The extraneous variables probably cancel eachother out, so the line you took was fine and probably inconsequential.

einbert

04-19-2005, 08:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

River: (9.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say it's very likely that MP1 played his hand very poorly.