should I call the river if he bets? Ad7d

[DMBFan23]

sup y'all,

the preflop limper is a very loose and passive player. the preflop 3 bettor is a TAG by stats, but I have no read on him postflop. 7-10% PFR.

on the river, hero ______ with the intention of ______?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6.66 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero...?

[einbert]

I think betting and folding to a raise has some merit, as you may get paid off by the LP with a worse hand. BUT there just aren't many worse hands he can have to pay you off with, and a decent TAG isn't paying you off with anything worse here.

If he bets though, you're toast. He's not betting ace high into two players, if he bets the river I suspect he has A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif.

I would check and fold to a bet.

[27offsooot]

checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands does a TAG player bet into two players on this board that we beat?

[Jack Bauer]

bet the river because you probably have the best hand and AK might call, but won't bet. MP1 has absolutely nothing

[DMBFan23]

I agree that MP1's presence makes this a must fold if he bets. HU I think I have to call, but he ain't betting unless he wants to get a call from MP1.

anyways, he had Ac Qs and checked behind

[DMBFan23]

doesnt the presence of MP1 make AK a little less likely to call?

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checks with the intention of calling one bet. I probably wouldn't overcall, but against a crappy MP1, i might.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands does a TAG player bet into two players on this board that we beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Overcards. I think based on his turn check, it is pretty obvious he has just overcards. Whether or not he has AKc/ AQc or just offsuit ones, u don't know. If he wants to bluff at the scare card on the river, given the passivity of MP1 and DMB, then let him. He will pretty much never call with a worse hand, so I don't see how betting has any value. Also, checking allows u to see how MP1 reacts. I think if MP1 folds, u should call, given that i think there is greater than 15% or whatever that he's bluffing at the river. If MP1 is decent and calls, then u have a fold.

I think that we assume GOOD TAGs will rarely if ever bluff at this river, but I think that someone can still have TAG statistics and take a shot here. If nothing else, this will give u a post-flop read.

[admiralfluff]

I think this is a pretty good spot for bet/fold. He's probably on check/fold, but you might get paid off by AK, and MP1 could pay you off with anything.

Does anyone else fold the flop?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought about it for a second but then realized we are getting 12.3-1 closing the action with almost certainly three good outs. And MP1 is going to pay us off with a huge range of hands if we hit, and button probably will too if he has an overpair.

[admiralfluff]

If button has an overpair we are in OK shape. The problem for me is that if button has a stronger A (fairly likely) and MP1 hit the flop (fairly likely) we are drawing to runner runner. Because MP1 is sooper loose passive, he could easily have hit and not done anything about it.

I also think a TAG button significantly loosens up his 3 betting requirements here, given he has the same read on MP1. (Im guessing he's seen this isolation raise from hero a lot lately).

If he has a non-AA over pair we have 3 outs. For the rest of the time, I give us 1 out, maybe 1.5.

[einbert]

We have a gutshot on the flop /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[which]

Does anyone else not raise pre flop?

thought with nut flush draw u want callers not head up situations?

which

[admiralfluff]

i need to pay more attention to other people's hands.
/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else not raise pre flop?

thought with nut flush draw u want callers not head up situations?

which

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have a flush draw preflop. You're only going to flop one 1/9 of the time or so.

Your EV from raising is much greater than your EV from calling. Raising has the benefits of

--Isolating the poor playing MP with position
--Buying the button
--Getting dead money into the pot from the blinds if they are tight
--Getting the blinds to put more money into the pot with weak hands OOP if they are loose
--Taking initiative in the hand so we can often take it down with a flop bet

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else not raise pre flop?

thought with nut flush draw u want callers not head up situations?

which

[/ QUOTE ]

Isolating crappy PF limpers with Ace high is fun. You're not really going to be playing this hand primarily for flush considerations and your hand is likely better than the junk MP is limping in with. So, u raise, have position, momentum, and hopefully clear out the blinds.

[StellarWind]

Button probably has overcards that may possibly be a flush. He may also have panicked with a small overpair like JJ. I dismissed this at first but actually it's a very real possibility.

MP1 could have called the flop with a ten, nine, eight, seven, six, small pocket, flush draw, high-end straight draw, or vivid imagination. Most of the items on this list are now ahead of you or have no showdown value whatsoever versus a PFR and likely won't call.

You should check expecting a free showdown. If Button has only overcards he will fold to a bet and you are a favorite to lose if MP1 calls. If Button bets you should definitely not overcall and probably not call at all.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Button probably has overcards that may possibly be a flush. He may also have panicked with a small overpair like JJ. I dismissed this at first but actually it's a very real possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would a TAG not bet the turn with JJ?

Also, u don't think u will be good like &gt; 15% of the time here when button bets and MP1 folds?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, u don't think u will be good like &gt; 15% of the time here when button bets and MP1 folds?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say way less than 15% (1 time in 7). More like 7% (1 time in 14) if you ask me.

Any TAG that is aggressive (dumb?) enough to bet a hand you beat here probably would have bet unimproved overcards on the turn a good percentage of the time.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]

Any TAG that is aggressive (dumb?) enough to bet a hand you beat here probably would have bet unimproved overcards on the turn a good percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point here. I think most TAGs take a second shot with AKo/ AQo only on the turn (if they do at all), and then check behind on the river, but may check the turn with the flush possibility here. I suppose i was just thinking of trying to induce a bluff where it wouldn't likely work. c/f seems better here against good opponents.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 could have called the flop with a ten, nine, eight, seven, six, small pocket, flush draw, high-end straight draw, or vivid imagination.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to shamelessly appropriate this and use it frequently.

Very nice.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]

MP1 could have called the flop with...vivid imagination.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome.

EDIT: dammit Catt beat me to it.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would a TAG not bet the turn with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not every TAG is a very good player. Many players will look at this turn and decide it's very dangerous and they want the cheapest possible showdown. There is both a four-straight on board and another PFR who "may" have a bigger overpair or a set. The fact that checking is wrong doesn't mean it doesn't happen on a regular basis.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, u don't think u will be good like &gt; 15% of the time here when button bets and MP1 folds?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't see players lining up to bet this river with AK/AQ. If we took a poll how many votes do you think there would be for betting the river against two opponents with overcards? Remember that anyone who would bet the turn can't vote.

Actually if Button is way out of line--say QJs--betting the river would be a good bluff. But I think his hand has too much showdown value to consider doing that.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: dammit Catt beat me to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

PWNED!11!!!1

That means it's mine, by the way.

In all seriousness - very nice analysis StellarWind. I'm struggling with river play (check vs. bet) and you've made several posts regarding river play in the past few days that I have found very helpful.