77 - FPS?

[JoshuaD]

40 hands on villian, he was a 41/21/.8

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Comments on all streets please, but particularly the river.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
41/21/.8

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll tell you right off that I don't like the river raise. He might pay you off with a worse hand, but I think he has a better hand than yours a lot (maybe most) of the time here, and I don't think he folds a better hand often at all. Maybe never. I really think you should just call here.

As for the turn, I think there is a good chance of him having AQ,AK in addition to overpairs when he bets into you here, and the overcard hands have 10 outs against you. For that reason I really think you should raise or fold the turn. I like raising and folding to a threebet here.

[GatorXP]

I dont like the PFR.
To my point then the Flop is very scary for you.
Many Hands have you Crushed and the Pot is small, Fold.

[shant]

I had a similar hand to this last night against a player with similar stats and I had 66. I called him down. I'm not sure if that is the right play, but I think calling down middle pairs on fairly raggedy boards against loose-aggressive players is profitable.

I could be wrong though, can anyone back that up?

I just noticed his AF is pretty low, did he bet rivers with A or K high?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
41/21/.8

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll tell you right off that I don't like the river raise. He might pay you off with a worse hand, but I think he has a better hand than yours a lot (maybe most) of the time here, and I don't think he folds a better hand often at all. Maybe never. I really think you should just call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I agree with you. At the time his stats weren't taken into consideration (I can't remember why, but I thought the guy was TAG-ish). Let's say villian is a TAG, is the river raise any good?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the PFR is standard. Your hand has equity against almost all of the hands the CO could have here. I raise to isolate him, getting 1.25:1 on my raise where I'm a favorite to win the hand.

The blinds don't 3-bet here often enough to offset that large edge.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
41/21/.8

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll tell you right off that I don't like the river raise. He might pay you off with a worse hand, but I think he has a better hand than yours a lot (maybe most) of the time here, and I don't think he folds a better hand often at all. Maybe never. I really think you should just call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I agree with you. At the time his stats weren't taken into consideration (I can't remember why, but I thought the guy was TAG-ish). Let's say villian is a TAG, is the river raise any good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Even against a tag, i think raising is pretty bad. You'll never get them to fold a higher PP, but will get them to fold hands that u beat most of the time, so u rarely will get paid off by worse hands. I suppose, he may fold A10, 99, 88.

Also, I'm not sure that most Tags will bet AK/ AQ on the river there, rather, going with the c/c.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Even against a tag, i think raising is pretty bad. You'll never get them to fold a higher PP, but will get them to fold hands that u beat most of the time, so u rarely will get paid off by worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly, you just haven't played your hand like you have a jack. A good hand-reading TAG is definitely not going to put you on a jack, he'll probably pay off most of the time with the hands you want him to fold, but he's not paying off with ace high, which an overaggressive TAG could hold here.

[JoshuaD]

Everyone's just calling down here against both a TAG and my actual opponent?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone's just calling down here against both a TAG and my actual opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised or folded the turn against either. I still want to hear more on that street.

Yes, I would have called the river though. Against *some* TAGs I would have folded the river, but against most I would have called.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]

I would have raised or folded the turn against either. I still want to hear more on that street.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, against maniacs though, I'm just calling down.

[GatorXP]

Someone Throw me a bone here.
Your Betting Even Money here minus the rake. Your hand will have to be good over 50 Percent of the time against a 3 bettor for this to be profitable. Basically you beat AK and He then still has a alot of outs against you.

You may well have won this hand but last time I checked we are playing poker. I wont waste my time playing mediocre hands in a 2 player pot.

Your Toast against
AA
KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99
AJ
AT

[SeaEagle]

I call the river. I think you're behind more than you're getting paid off.

Just a couple weeks ago, I started capping w/ medium pairs HU against these 21PFR LAGs. So far my results have been great. I'd much rather be in control of the hand and I find it pretty easy to release the hand against continued aggression.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone Throw me a bone here.
Your Betting Even Money here minus the rake. Your hand will have to be good over 50 Percent of the time against a 3 bettor for this to be profitable. Basically you beat AK and He then still has a alot of outs against you.

You may well have won this hand but last time I checked we are playing poker. I wont waste my time playing mediocre hands in a 2 player pot.

Your Toast against
AA
KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99
AJ
AT

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to put a 21 PFR on a hand range on the flop but bear with me.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
71,280 games 0.078 secs 913,846 games/sec
Board: Jd 6d Ts
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.8650 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7s7d }
Hand 2: 66.1350 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AQo }</pre><hr />
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
64,350 games 0.016 secs 4,021,875 games/sec
Board: Jd 6d Ts
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.1632 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7s7d }
Hand 2: 65.8368 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo }
</pre><hr />

With anything near 1/3 equity folding is horrible.

[meep_42]

First blush - call/call/call

Reading the discussion, I like raising the turn, folding to a 3-bet, and going for a free showdown UI. Villain is either crushing you (3-bet), or has many outs (AKQ) to draw to.

-d

[GatorXP]

[ QUOTE ]

With anything near 1/3 equity folding is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would a agree with you multiway but this is a heads up pot you have 1/3 equity and As i explained you need over 1/2. Clear fold.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

With anything near 1/3 equity folding is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would a agree with you multiway but this is a heads up pot you have 1/3 equity and As i explained you need over 1/2. Clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when there are already 8 dead small bets in the pot.

You're getting 9-1 and you will win the pot 1/3 of the time. This is a simplistic view of things as you have some reverse implied odds here, and your effective odds aren't quite as good as 9-1 if you are planning on calling down the whole way no matter what the board looks like. But 1/3 equity is enough that folding with so much overlay is a pretty big mistake.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I would a agree with you multiway but this is a heads up pot you have 1/3 equity and As i explained you need over 1/2.

[/ QUOTE ]
Could you explain the "over 1/2" part again? There's 4 BB in the pot at the flop. If hero takes the simplest route and just calls to the showdown, he'll invest 2 1/2 BB to win 6 1/2 BB. So he needs to win quite a bit less than "over 1/2" of the time to show a profit here.

[GatorXP]

Ok I'm an idiot I just noticed this is a blind steal situation. so the aggro could have anything. So i wouldnt feel so bad about calling it down. Maybe I'm twisted because I had this exact same situation this morning and the guy raised the river and showed me his pocket 7s and I smiled as I flipped over pocket jacks.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone's just calling down here against both a TAG and my actual opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised or folded the turn against either. I still want to hear more on that street.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a raise better than a fold -- alot of people continue betting AK/AQ here, and a raise could very easily fold an 88 or 99.