Bank Roll ??

[AH-TitanFan]

A friend of mine reccommended a formula for bank roll. Something like 100 small bets (or 100 big bets?!). What is the reccommended bank roll for a reasonably good player to move up in a limit?

[QTip]

The general recommendation is 300 x the BB for a level. Some of us here are more conservative and like 400.

[jason_t]

300 BB at least and up to 500 BB if you are multi-tabling or not sure if you can beat the limit.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
The general recommendation is 300 x the BB for a level. Some of us here are more conservative and like 400.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine will be 1500BB, but I am counting on poker for my income.

[TheDelChop]

Ok....

I'll start.


If you wish to be a consistent winning player at particular limit, its not uncommon for you to experience downswings (long losing streaks) that are larger than 100 BBs (Big Bets or the bet on the turn) and may even grow to 250 BBs. This requires a bankroll of about 500BB to make sure you don't go broke.

2) If you are moving up a limit and are unsure that you can even beat this game in the long run then you may need more than 500BB to fiure this out.

All in all 100BB is a laughable number for bankroll and it should be much closer to 500BB if you wish to be a long term winning player and survive the bitch that downswings are...

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Mine will be 1500BB, but I am counting on poker for my income.

[/ QUOTE ]

PB, are you going pro??

(if so, congrats and good luck)

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
All in all 100BB is a laughable number for bankroll and it should be much closer to 500BB if you wish to be a long term winning player and survive the bitch that downswings are...

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to mention the psychological impact of a small bankroll. 50BB downswings are almost commonplace, but they're much easier to take when they're 10% of your bankroll instead of 50%.

[Kyriefurro]

Just out of curiosity, what's the estimated RoR for a 300BB bankroll?

[MoreWineII]

300-500BB

And do a search.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mine will be 1500BB, but I am counting on poker for my income.

[/ QUOTE ]

PB, are you going pro??

(if so, congrats and good luck)

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda. I am taking a year off from my teaching job and using poker as my income. I'll have about 4-5 months of living expenses, and about 1500-1600 as my bankroll.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Kinda. I am taking a year off from my teaching job and using poker as my income. I'll have about 4-5 months of living expenses, and about 1500-1600 as my bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aww... well, congrats and good luck!

[TStoneMBD]

RoR? over how many hands? at what rate of BB/100? you cant calculate your RoR without mentioning the important variables first.

[Kyriefurro]

oh yeah, huh? /images/graemlins/blush.gif I was thinking in terms of Blackjack where your RoR is pretty much a standard calculation based on the playing system you're using hehe.

Ok...better question then - How do you calculate your RoR?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Just out of curiosity, what's the estimated RoR for a 300BB bankroll?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some important things you've left out. And some somewhat important things.

Important things: Winrate. Standard deviation.

Somewhat important things: Does this player intend to play this limit until he as 0 BB left? When does he plan to move up?


If you assume the following:

- He plays until he goes bust
- He quits when he doubles up, and moves to the next limit, the following formula comes into play:

[ (1-w/s)/(1+w/s) ] ^ (bankroll/s)

where w = winrate
s = standard deviation
bankroll = # BBs

So, if we assume that w = 2, s = 16, and bankroll = 300

RoR = [ (1-0.125)/(1+0.125) ] ^ (300/16)
= 0.89% RoR.

[flair1239]

This is the formula. You need to guess at your win rate. Pull your Standard deviation off of poker tracker. 300BB is for an excellent player.

It depends what your ROR tolerance is. When I figured out how much I could take out a month I used 1%. Others use 5, 10, or even 15.


Banroll formula (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=207170&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

[einbert]

Congrats to PokerBob on going pro! Good luck too!

Nevermind the other part of this post, I thought you were referring to Rate of Return, not Risk of Ruin. Figured it out now though :-P.

[chief444]

Me and you both. I'll be off work for about 8-12 months and pretty much in the same situation. Although for me it's not really a voluntary decision.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

There are some important things you've left out. And some somewhat important things.

Important things: Winrate. Standard deviation.

Somewhat important things: Does this player intend to play this limit until he as 0 BB left? When does he plan to move up?


If you assume the following:

- He plays until he goes bust
- He quits when he doubles up, and moves to the next limit, the following formula comes into play:

[ (1-w/s)/(1+w/s) ] ^ (bankroll/s)

where w = winrate
s = standard deviation
bankroll = # BBs

So, if we assume that w = 2, s = 16, and bankroll = 300

RoR = [ (1-0.125)/(1+0.125) ] ^ (300/16)
= 0.89% RoR.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does the math behind this come from?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

There are some important things you've left out. And some somewhat important things.

Important things: Winrate. Standard deviation.

Somewhat important things: Does this player intend to play this limit until he as 0 BB left? When does he plan to move up?


If you assume the following:

- He plays until he goes bust
- He quits when he doubles up, and moves to the next limit, the following formula comes into play:

[ (1-w/s)/(1+w/s) ] ^ (bankroll/s)

where w = winrate
s = standard deviation
bankroll = # BBs

So, if we assume that w = 2, s = 16, and bankroll = 300

RoR = [ (1-0.125)/(1+0.125) ] ^ (300/16)
= 0.89% RoR.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does the math behind this come from?

[/ QUOTE ]

It comes from the same derivation (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=683150&page=0&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=2#Post682045683150) as the bankroll formulas (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=207100&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1) we commonly use, but before we make the approximation that the bankroll is >> win rate.

[Jack Bauer]

i consider there to be shells of bankroll

you absolutely must have 300 BB at a game. once you dip under you dont feel comfortable. then you need 300 BB to weather a downswing so you never get to the 300 BB level where you feel comfortable.

youre either taking a shot or youre playing a game. if youre playing a game where you cant afford to lose much, then youre, by definition, taking a shot, and arent rolled for it.

[CallMeIshmael]

Bruce, those were very interesting articles you linked.

It seems like you might be the guy to answer the little discussion we had going earlier...(I noticed you mentioned the first and second moments in an article, which really piqued my interest)

Shillx (who, if you dont read regularily, is one of the brightest SS posters), myself and a few others were discussing distributions of 100 hand samples.

What do you know about these distributions?

When broken into 100 hand samples, how close does poker come to normality?