SS Hits MP Late

[yecul]

This is by memory, so they’re accurate approximations.

$5 Party tournament. About 16 of 1500 remain. Next pay jump is from $55 to $75 at 10th for the final table. Nothing I’m really concerned about until top 7 when it’s reasonably worthwhile.

I’m at about t42k after posting the blind (5k/10k). One limper comes to me (unimaginative passive type, haven’t seen a lot, but no reason to be impressed, after calling he has me covered by a few k, say 46k – very close stacks) and I have 73o. I check. Pot is t25k.

Flop comes Q7x two diamonds (x was a 4 I believe).

I check. He min bets 10k back to me.

At this point I figure I’m way behind some big pair or, more likely, ahead of a missed flop/drawing hand. My fold equity is pretty low, but I think I have a tiny bit. Based on the player and the flop I know that he did not hit the flop and I determine myself to be ahead. At least 50/50 but probably 60/40 (depending on his draw – overcards vs flush, etc). I would say I’m about 80% confident of this.

Options:

1) Fold.

2) Call and push the turn.

3) Push all-in.

What’s the move? Is my read half assed, it was based a lot on feel/gut instinct?

Edit -- x=4, not 3.

[DireWolf]

Well if you are 80% sure you are better than 50/50 and you are playing for the top spots i push here.

PS, if x=3 you have two pair.

[yecul]

Uh, yeah, let me edit that. I believe it was a 4. Silly me... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Cleveland Guy]

Call and push the turn is not a viable option - IMO.

You are giving him in essence a free card to hit something.

Do you call and Fold if the turn is an A or a K? Heck- he could have JT - and hit one of those, or pocket 8s, and hit a set.

ALL that being said, I would raise all in here, but I think I would have rather led out here.

[yecul]

Since I probably won’t be able to get back to the board for a little bit I’ll just post the results and my thoughts in white:

<font color="white"> I pushed to his flop bet and he called with A5d. Rivered the A. My read was correct, though I figured he’d just have two overs like Kx or something silly like that. Still, that’s abot 58/42 I believe.

I should have open pushed the flop. My reasoning was that I could take my ~3-4bb and still make a run at it if I determined I was behind in this spot. Was that thinking poor?

I don’t have a particular problem with the outcome, I got the money in when I was ahead and it didn’t work out. But I seem to have this happen a few times – I have junk in the BB, catch a pair (bottom/middle) and it gets all in with villain having overcards/some draw, and I lose. Are these type of plays too risky, considering? Am I too short stacked at this point to even care about that? I’m obviously a little hazy on the “correct” thing to do in spots like this.

Obviously I’m a novice, but it’s encouraging that when I do make a play like that, my read is generally correct and I’m ahead with the pair.</font>