$2 to go....

[MRBAA]

Riding that train, playing 6-handed, 1-5 spread limit stud, 1-10 on the river.

I've got (5A)A, dealer antes $1 for the table (severe underante in this game), bring in deuce, a loose predictable sort puts in $1, I make it $5 to go, J in the door calls and the bring in calls.

Fourth street brings the bring-in another deuce, the jack and I catch blanks. Deuce bets $2, we both call.

blanks again on fifth and bring in now makes it the full $5 with his deuces and I....

[PoorLawyer]

tough call. i guess it depends on if you think he has trips. you are getting a little more than 5 to 1 on your money. if he has trips you are a 14 to 1 shot to get an ace, but if he had a pair in the hole then you have 9 cards that would put you in the lead, not counting a running pair. (BTW my math sucks so this could all be way off). there are 28 cards left so you are a little more than 3 to 1 to improve to aces up and 14 to 1 to hit your trips.

He could be betting the $5 just because of the pot size and the non-threatening cards that you caught. the 2 dollar bet on 4th is fishy because with the pot as big as it is I dont think a reasonable player would slowplay. i would probably call to the river and fold unimproved (assuming he bets the full ten) unless you are pretty sure he has the trips.

[Andy B]

Well, you know this guy, and we don't. Would he try to suck you in with a $2 bet when he has trips? Or does he just routinely bet $2 because he stinks? I'm guessing the latter, so I think I stay with him.

[MRBAA]

Sorry if this post was a bit cryptic. As Andy notes, I do know this guy and his $2 bet into me after I raised coming in with an Ace in the door screamed trips. I called because the pot was giving me about 10-1 immediate odds on a $2 bet (which is why it's a horrible bet for him to make with small trips) and of course my implied odds, especially with a $10 bet on the end and a player who will call me down are huge if I do spike an Ace. When I missed on fifth, I had an easy fold to his $5 bet, getting about 5-1 immediate odds.

I think reading players is one of the most underrated skills among solid players. Here was a betting tell that made what, sans tell was a tough decision, a no-brainer.

btw, the other guy called down with split jacks (I know, this is a good game) and was shown trip deuces.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

A reasonable player will almost always make the full $5 bet on 4th, no matter what he has because it forces the people with the big pairs to make a decsion which they can screw up, instead of giving them an easy call of a $2 bet, so you are clearly facing someone trying to be tricky. Here is a great rule of thumb that I use when determining whether to call a bet when it looks like I might be up against a slow play: if their board was scary enough that I would have folded my hand on the previous betting round had they made a full bet, I almost always fold when they bet out on the next round (unless I improved) because their min bet/check screams a slowplay, the pot is small because they failed to bet on the previous round, and you now have one less card to draw out on them. So pretty much whenever someone pairs their doorcard I mentally give up the hand, even if they give me a free card. If they are tricky enough to check it to me twice, I will bet just ONCE hoping to pick up the pot at their sign of great weakness, but if they call/raise I am done putting money in the pot.

A corilary to this rule usually comes up on 6th street when the opponent makes a non-doorcard open pair and checks. Assuming that I would have called a bet (hoping to hit a higher 2 pair) had they bet with their open pair, I usually call on the river after checking through on 6th (because I fear a small 2 pair) since they might have been on a draw and have been induced to bluff by my check.

The last thing to note is that your effective odds are MUCH worse than 5-1 on 5th because you can expect to see a $5 bet on 6th and a $10 bet on the river. Thus, after he effectively sucks you in on 4th calling the full bet on 5th is a huge mistake since your effective odds are only about 2-1.

Regards,
Carlos

[MRBAA]

Well, in the Party 3-6 games (and live 5-10 games), many players do not deserve too much respect when they pair their door cards. Up at the higher limits, this is probably less often the case.

My real point in this, though, was really applicable only to live play. Namely that strategy and odds knowledge is a must to win, but tells (either physical or betting patterns or both combined here) are incredibly underrated. In this same game, in a hand I wasn't in, I watched a player pair his Jack doorcard on fifth in a multiway pot where there had been little action. He then bet the max and immediately scratched his face -- it was clear that this was a nervous tic stemming from anxiety over NOT having trips. I was very sure of this because he would likely have bet split jacks earlier. Had I been in the hand with an overpair, I'd have been confident in raising or calling due to the combination of the betting pattern and the physical tell.