Level 3 + Jacks = Fun

[Phil Van Sexton]

Villian had been fairly tight and not involved in many hands, except 1 very noteworthy hand. A couple hands earlier, he min-raised UTG with A6o. He bet the pot (300) on a 542 flop, and a shortstack pushed for 300 more. He called, and caught the 3 on the turn. Shortstack not pleased.

Moving on. PartyPoker 50/5...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2415)
MP1 (t1110)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1335)
Button (t1720)
SB (t1205)
Hero (t1065)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t225</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[1C5]

Me, I call here. And then play depending on the flop. A or K flops, I tread carefully. No overcards and I am prepared to get all in. If a Q falls I still play it aggressively I think.

[hansarnic]

You have to push, anything else is awful imo

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian had been fairly tight and not involved in many hands, except 1 very noteworthy hand. A couple hands earlier, he min-raised UTG with A6o.


[/ QUOTE ]

He is tight and min rasing UTG with A6o?

Something here doesn't make sense.

I think I call and push any non scary board.

[jcm4ccc]

The 225 bet is strange, on the button after everybody has folded. 70% - 80% of the time he is just going to win the blinds. So I don't think he has AK, AA, KK, or QQ. He would want some action with those hands. He might have AQ or KQ, or perhaps Axs. It might be a total steal attempt.

I would call the bet, with the intention of check-raising the flop. Unless an Ace hits on the flop (since he seems to like his aces). Then I would check the flop and play it by ear.

[Scuba Chuck]

I definately don't like calling here. This is push or fold. His bet, to me, indicates that he would prefer not to be called. So....

[Scuba Chuck]

You're going to call off 25% of your stack against an attempted steal? I think this is a fine time to lay down the law for future blind steal attempts. Resteal, the poorly attempted steal attempt.

If villain had only raised to say 125 chips, I'd be more comfortable with a call here.

[Elektrik]

Pretty standard push IMO.

[pooh74]

How has your table image been?

Unfortunately your fe on a push isnt spectacular, but Id say its still a factor. Id have to say your WORST case scenario here is two overs...i really dont see this size a raise with QQ+...you never know, but i think this outcome is far less likely than villain folding on your reraise AI (so they cancel out in my mind or give you slightly +EV). Then we're left with your 55/45 advantage and the possible under PPs which i think makes this a clear push.

There is almost no way I'd lay this down here and definitely no way im going to the flop w/o all of my chips in the middle.

p

[willie]

i push this almost everytime

and stop and go on occassion.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Then we're left with your 55/45 advantage and the possible under PPs which i think makes this a clear push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree with your range of hands here. Your advantage at worst is likely a 55/45. But on average, against a range of hands, hero is more likely a 2:1 favorite, IMO.

[TheCat]

A Push looks rather good as it's unlikely he's dominating you with AA,KK,QQ. Also point also made by someone else, lay down the law to him now.

A fold isn't too bad either, given the villians history he could well be raising with a real hand. You are a coinflip to AK,AQ,KQ. I'd do this on tight days.

I'm not happy about a call and push if A or K don't hit. He could just as well have a Q as a K.

Who can say for sure? Last night in one game I put a preflop raiser all in with JJ and lost most of my stack to QQ. After a nice recovery I folded AKs in the BB after two all ins. One had A8 the other AQ with rag,rag K flop, oh well, I came home second anyways.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then we're left with your 55/45 advantage and the possible under PPs which i think makes this a clear push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree with your range of hands here. Your advantage at best is likely a 55/45. But on average, against a range of hands, hero is more likely a 2:1 favorite, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

? I dont understand...you say hero is at best a 55/45 and then say he more likely is a 2:1 fav?

Maybe my post sucked bc im writing quickly from work, but I mean to say:

The possibility villain has QQ-AA i think is low with this size raise...but, its there of course. but i think in the overall evaluation of the hand, if hero were to push this, the % of time villain has these hands (QQ-AA) is negated by the % of time he'll lay this down to the raise PF...so Im not going to consider either...

I would then consider all of the other hands I'd be up against 55/45, 2:1, 80/20 etc...which I believe makes this an +EV push.


Are we disagreeing or just misunderstanding?

[Scuba Chuck]

Pooh, excellent post. I misread it (one word) and then stopped reading the rest. I've edited my post. We both agree on the push, and the worst case scenario.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Pooh, excellent post. I misread it (one word) and then stopped reading the rest. I've edited my post. We both agree on the push, and the worst case scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i did that last week and wrote a 3 page post trashing the op and then went back later and realized I had made a glaring error and had to go back and erase everything...

I thought we agreed! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[1C5]

Thanks for explaining it so well you two, I will have to look at pushing here in the future instead of calling....

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for explaining it so well you two, I will have to look at pushing here in the future instead of calling....

[/ QUOTE ]

The other problem i have with calling is that all of the math which will affect the outcome is more or less done PF. I think with this size raise, there's gonna be some damage done, the problem is, I see many players with TT make this raise and then push a 57A rainbow flop...what do you do with your jacks then? By calling you're essentially lost thereafter by playing the board instead of your opponent.

Stack sizes + money in the pot dictate that no more relevant information can easily be extracted w/o putting it all in. Thats mostly why i like the pf push here.

[Scuba Chuck]

This reminds me of a conversation I had with my friend. The outcome is simple. When playing fishy players, you need to just play solid, ABC poker. You do that by maximizing your probabilities as early as possible.

My friend came back from a game in Dexter, MN (boondocks). He told me he can't play with them anymore, because they are so bad. Have you heard this line before? If not, and you believe this, you're still a fish. If you cannot figure out how to manipulate players that are Sooo bad, you don't know how to play poker.

Back to this hand, you have the best odds, probabilities, etc. preflop. Postflop, the math gets very convoluted. Erego, your best decision will be made preflop. As Pooh and I have agreed earlier, you're likely a 2:1 favorite against the range of hands for this moron. I love these odds, early or not.

And, frankly, I could give a rats ass about folding equity here. I welcome a call. Profit bitch!

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of a conversation I had with my friend. The outcome is simple. When playing fishy players, you need to just play solid, ABC poker. You do that by maximizing your probabilities as early as possible.

My friend came back from a game in Dexter, MN (boondocks). He told me he can't play with them anymore, because they are so bad. Have you heard this line before? If not, and you believe this, you're still a fish. If you cannot figure out how to manipulate players that are Sooo bad, you don't know how to play poker.

Back to this hand, you have the best odds, probabilities, etc. preflop. Postflop, the math gets very convoluted. Erego, your best decision will be made preflop. As Pooh and I have agreed earlier, you're likely a 2:1 favorite against the range of hands for this moron. I love these odds, early or not.

And, frankly, I could give a rats ass about folding equity here. I welcome a call. Profit bitch!

[/ QUOTE ]

re: cant play against bad players...I see that all the time on THESE boards...where u been? It shocks me.

as for the rest of the post...I agree /images/graemlins/wink.gif

p