I should of pushed/folded...... I didn't, now what?

[JonLines]

£110 freezeout live tourney. Starting chips of 4k, around 60 runners. Down to about 17, top 9 pay, but 9th is basically buy-in. My table has just merged with another table, two tables left, mine has 9 seated.

Blinds are 750 -1500.

BB 2900
Hero 8000
Villain 25000(thats a guess)

I think I was MP1, its folded round to me, and I look down to see 88. I look up and see BB only has 1400 left and I like my odds, so I just put in 3000 (This is a major mistake I know, should be push or fold, but ignore this for now). MP3 pushes all-in, everyone folds to BB, who obviously calls, now its a further 5000 for me to call.

Should I call? Let me go through my thinking thus far. If I call there will be 19650 in the pot. I can assume BB's hand is utterly random, and thus my odds of beating him is around 70%. My odds on beating Villain however, is anywhere between 50% to 20%. Am I right to say that if I put villain on an over pair I don't have the pot odds to call, but if I put him on an AK type combination, I do have the pot odds to call?

The other question is, given the size of the blinds should I just be shoving it in anyway given I am probably going to be all-in soon.

Could someone with a superior intellect to me please work out my odds? I am getting confused!

[LuckYou777]

you're getting the correct odds to call.

i can certainly see MP making this move with something like A-K (even A-Qs?) or a pocket pair tens or above. Assuming the BB has something random- for arguments sake, lets say he has one overcard to you, and one undercard- you're getting the correct odds to call.

If youre against Aces and Jack-Six suited (one over one under), you're about a 4.6 to 1 dog. With the pot odds at 3.93 to 1 on your call, this would be wrong if you knew he had aces. But if he was capable of making this move with A-K or A-Q suited, it changes. There are 30 combinations of pairs, aces to tens, 16 combinations of A-K, and 4 combinations of A-Q suited. If he could make a move here with any of these hands, which I believe he could, you are getting the correct odds to call.

30-20 ratio of Big Pair-Aforementioned Big Unpaired Cards
60% of the time, you have approx. 17.82% chance to win (8's vs. aces and j-6)
40% of the time, you have approx. 38.01% chance to win (8's vs. a-k and j-6)

.6(.1782) + .4(.3801) = .25896
= approx. 25.8% chance of winning

With those given assumptions, you'd be about a 2.87 to 1 dog on average. And you're getting 3.93 to 1 on your call. So put your chips in.

/images/graemlins/club.gif monte

[JonLines]

Thankyou very much, thats just what I wanted to see. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I of course was an idiot and folded.... I really put him on an over pair, he showed AQ suited.....(good guess by the way). And to make it worse the 9's WOULD of beaten them both.

Cheers