mid-long term winrate at the bbjp 2/4 tables

[bathroompants]

I was just wondering if it was possibile to sustain a decent winrate at the bbjp tables even with the extra rake. I know my sample size is way too small to really tell anything signifigant, but after around 3500 hands the past 2 days, I have about a .25bb/100 3 tabling.

I'm pretty sure my pt stats are almost perfect:
VP$IP - 15.66%
PFR% - 6.1%
Postflop Aggression Factor - 3.0
Went to showdown % - 29%
Won $ at showdown - 49.55%

Not sure if these stats mean anything if the .5 extra rake is what is cutting into my winrate or not, hell being almost breakeven after 3000-4000 hands can't be too incredibly rare, but I'm hoping its the extra .50 rake that is keeping me from showing a good profit.

[jaxUp]

your winrate will be converged within reason after 100k hands at 2/4. Until then, don't worry too much about it. You're a bit too tight preflop, and your PFR is too low. Your WTSD is a bit too low as well, and your W$SD looks a bit low, which indicates that you're running poorly (coupled with your WTSD).

[Moozh]

Actually, it takes 100,000 hands to know your winrate within 1bb/100.

It takes 2,500,000 hands to know your winrate within 0.1bb/100.

Don't worry about your rate, worry about your play.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure my pt stats are almost perfect:
VP$IP - 15.66%
PFR% - 6.1%
Postflop Aggression Factor - 3.0
Went to showdown % - 29%
Won $ at showdown - 49.55%


[/ QUOTE ]

uh you are too tight preflop, don't raise enough either

and WSD should be a couple %higher

[kapw7]

Why do you play the jackpot tables if you are so tight? It doesn't make sense.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure my pt stats are almost perfect:
VP$IP - 15.66%
PFR% - 6.1%
Postflop Aggression Factor - 3.0
Went to showdown % - 29%
Won $ at showdown - 49.55%

[/ QUOTE ]

your PFR is atrocious.

[bathroompants]

I don't know if saying I'm running cold is a worthy excuse, but I try to play close to the SSHE rules, plus a few extra hands on the button/co that have jackpot potential. Plus, even just someone else at the table hitting the jackpot will be worth it right now with the jp over 300k (~6000). And the games are a lot softer since the jackpot is so large.

[kapw7]

OK my initial post was very short since I was still at work. First, you are in the wrong thread. Ppl here play micros so they dont (the big majority of them) have any experience of bbjp. That said I can guess that you need to follow a totally different strategy playing this game. Do you play to win the jackpot or to make money from playing winning poker? I assume the first. I have no idea what the best strategy would be, if any can exist. It seems to me that the odds of winning the jackpot are extremely unfavourable and there is no guaranteed amount that you could win. You are better off playing the lottery.

But if you try to maximise your chances of winning then you need to play a lot more hands. I can guess ANY suited connectors (straight flush draw) and pairs (8s and higher - 4 of a kind draw) from ANY position - your VPIP says a different story. You would also need to go to a lot more showdowns with a promising board to get a share of the jackpot - your WSD number again says that you don't. Of course this play will result in losing money in the long run but you increase your chances of winning the jackpot.

It's possible that you might want to make money playing real poker because of the loose - recreational - bad players on the table. But will you beat the increased rake or are you better off playing at the normal tables? How would you like the situation of getting a winrate of 3-4 BB/100 and miss a huge jackpot b/c you folded your hand?

I have to add again that I have no experience of bbjp games and so you need not to take anything I said as any kind of solid advice.

[bathroompants]

Well from what I've read on bonuswhores is that once the jackpot is over ~190k the 2/4bbjp tables are +ev so I've just been following that.

I'm mainly playing because the jackpot is nice and large, and I feel with profitable play, that just adds to it. You cant argue with a possible extra 6-7k for playing if your table hits it really can't be argued with. I like to look at is as playing poker on one hand and .50c slots with the other.

Mainly the post was to ask if the extra rake was beatable longterm, to see if I was wasting my time or not.

[ArturiusX]

Those stats are way too tight.