Fold QQ on Turn Against a Rag Board?

[Moozh]

Can I fold here? Pleeeeease? Villain was an 18/3. Three! From what I saw he was pretty passive all around. I don't think he plays AK this way on the flop (especially after I cap pre), but then it seemed like such a weak fold at the time...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero...

[brazilio]

No.

But I completely know the feeling, QQ starts to feel like 22 when it gets capped preflop and not by you. If you think you can fold safely to the turn if he caps the flop, I might see a fold there.

[billyjex]

Thing I don't like about the 18/3 stats is over how many hands? It could mean very little or a lot.

[Moozh]

Yes, the sample size is definitely a legit question. The answer of course is 'not enough'.

That said, what hands am I ahead of here? Maaaybe AK of diamonds? While the sample size is small, how many hands do you really need to qualify someone as passive? Passive players just don't raise the flop against a pre-flop capper without a pair. He's got to have AA, KK, QQ, or JJ here something like 90% of the time.

I can see an argument to 3-bet the flop and go from there. But, on the chance he's raising on a diamond draw, I think it would be better to bet the turn and fold to a raise if I'm not just going to let it go so easy.

Thoughts?

[Ass Master]

I actually like this fold. If it is your unbiased estimate that your opponent is 100% probable to play AA-JJ this way and is 15% or less probable to play AK or TT this way then folding is correct since you are worse than a 9.25:2 dog (9.25:2 being your effective odds). If you restrict AK to being diamonds then he has to be over 40% probable to play AdKd or TT this way for calling to be correct.

[MCS]

I didn't run the numbers, so I don't know if your reasoning is otherwise correct, but it's better than 9.25-2 because: (1) we can spike a queen and win, possibly earning multiple bets, especially against AA or JJ, and (2) maybe he'll check the river.

I'd call down but I always call everything headsup when I have an overpair. Seriously, I've seen this play get made with a whiffed AK that's just determined to buy the pot enough for me to make two crying calls. Sometimes passive preflop players can't bear to let go of the few premium hands they actually take to the flop.

[Master5hake]

I might stick a reraise on the flop, see how serious he is, if he caps, I'll check/fold the river on a blank for me...

the thing I've found with some tight/passive players at these levels is that they often they often push AKs or AK and sometimes AQ really hard no matter what develops, trying to make up for all the hands the don't play or play really weakly, they know tight aggresive play is good, and this is their idea of what tight aggresive is -
that being said, I don't think they would cap a flop with just AK, AQ, or even AJ, so you can run and hide with your unimproved Queens on the turn if he bets

[MoreWineII]

Sample size? Unless I have the evidence to firmly believe I'm behind, I call down.

[Ass Master]

You're right, his effective odds are better than 9.25:2 for the reasons you gave, but I don't think they are much better unless the opponent has a high probability of checking the river. E.g. if we assume that

(1) You will win an extra bet if you spike a Q and your opponent has AA or KK
(2) You will win 3 extra bets if you spike a Q and your oppoment has JJ
(3) Opponent will bluff with 25% probability with unimproved AK and otherwise check behind
(4) Opponent will always check behind with TT
(5) Opponent is 15% probable to play up to the turn as he did given he holds AK or TT

then your effective odds improve from the original estimate of 4.6:1 to about 5:1. However if we assume that the opponent is 100% likely to attempt a river bluff with unimproved AK then your effective odds are more like 4.8:1.

I agree with you that, generally speaking, a call down is in order in this situation because even if the opponent will play up to the turn with 20% probability as he did given he holds AK or TT then this is an easy call down. However based on the OP's description of the opponent (PF 3 and passive) I don't think a fold is bad.