FE

[WSOPstar2B]

Could some1 explain folding equity 4 my ignorant self.
Thanks

[M.B.E.]

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Number=889067

[M.B.E.]

Suppose blinds are 50/100 (no ante), your stack is 900, it's folded to you in MP, and everyone behind you has you covered. You have to decide whether to push or fold. Folding equity is the probability everyone behind you will fold to your push, multiplied by the current pot size. So if you think there's a 70% chance that everyone behind you would fold, then your folding equity is 105 chips, 70% of 150.

To calculate the EV of pushing you have to incorporate both folding equity and pot equity if called.

The formula for the EV of pushing is

EV = FE + (1-p)(PEIC - S)

Where

p is the probability everyone behind you will fold;

PEIC is your pot equity if called (that is, the average size of the pot when anyone calls, multiplied by your average percentage of the pot);

S is your stack when everyone behind you has you covered (if anyone behind you does not have you covered, then you have to adjust S downward).

Most often in these situations, you figure you will only be called by better hands, so that (PEIC - S) will be negative.

For example, suppose you've got A8s and you figure that there's a 70% chance everyone behind you will fold, but when you are called you are about a 34:66 underdog against the range of hands that will call you.

The average size of the pot when anyone calls will be something like 1850 (your 900, plus the 900 of the player calling you, plus some of the blinds' money). Then PEIC = 34% of 1850 = 629.

Then we have

EV = FE + (1-p)(PEIC - S)
= 105 + (0.3)(629-900)
= 105 - 81
= 24

And since that is positive, pushing has greater chip EV than folding.

That's based on the assumption of a 70% probability that your opponents will all fold. If instead there's only a 60% probability of that, but you still figure to be a 34:66 underdog against the range of hands that will call you, then your EV is

EV = FE + (1-p)(PEIC - S)
= (0.6)(150) + (0.4)(629-900)
= 90 - 109
= -19

And since that is negative, pushing now has less chip EV than folding.