True Believers

[Mark H]

Do strong beliefs in things God, religion, occult, paranormal, and ESP hinder your ability to play good poker? All of these seem to need more faith than logic. Odds and probability seem the opposite but still need some faith i.e. in the long run cards will equal out or skill will over come luck. I see logic as very important to winning. But my logic does not seem to be everyone else’s logic. I see people at a poker table do crazy things to “change their luck” or others some very smart people believe in things that have no roots in logic its all belief. Can that many people be wrong? Or maybe a better question is how do you determine correctness. Maybe having an open mind and being willing to learn, change, and grow are the keys. How can you use the superstitions and closed mindedness against other players. Any response appreciated especially flames. Mark

[Herb N.]

I have a saying:when I think im going to WIN sometimes im RIGHT.When I think that I'm going to LOSE I'm ALWAYS rite!Theres realy more to this statement when you are losing you send subconcouse signals[or tells] to your opponets.I do believe in ESP many times I have called for a card and it has come way more often than probability suggests.Keven O.who plays O/8 at the Bellago also posseses this gift.I've seen him for years call for a card,im not shocked to see that card come.As far as God is concerned I believe if you play the game with honor he don't mind,just dont waste his time praying for a card or a win.Speaking of wasting time asking for a deck change seat change rabbits feet are a waste of time.Concentrate on positive things unstead.

[Noo Yawk]

It's an amazing flaw in human nature to irrationally believe that some object or outer force will bring us luck, when the fact is, practice and execution are what brings us to our goals. For some, the belief in objects or a higher power is an excuse for laziness. For others, it brings an irrational confidence. If your true edge in anything you do comes from hardwork, but that rabbits foot gives you some extra confidence, go ahead and carry the rabbits foot. Just don't depend on it.

[Al Schoonmaker]

You listed a variety of illogical beliefs, then asked: "Can that many people be wrong?"
The answer, alas, is "Yes." For example, whenever a newspaper cancels its astrology column, it gets a great number of complaints. Even the First Lady of the US, Nancy Reagan, believed in astrology, and some people allege that her husband shared some of her beliefs.
Surveys have shown that the MAJORITY of people have some totally illogical beliefs.
I live in Las Vegas, and our economy is based upon people's denial of reality.
In fact, poker winners get most of our profits from accepting reality and dealing logically with it. We profit from other people's illogic and denial of reality.
That is, don't knock it. Enjoy and exploit it.
Regards,
Al

[Al Schoonmaker]

Herb:
You wrote: "I do believe in ESP. Many times I have called for a card and it has come way more often than probability."
The evidence is overwhelming that ESP is BS. In fact, "The Amazing Randi," a prominent magician, has had a standing offer to pay $1,100,000 to anyone who can provide scientifically acceptable proof of ESP. After many years and many attempts, nobody has won that money.
The "scientific" research at Duke University that "proved" the existence of ESP has been widely quoted. It was an utter fraud because it was terribly controlled. Dr. Rhine resisted adding controls, because every time he did so, his results got worse. By the time the studies were adequately controlled, they proved nothing at all except that Rhine was a fraud, and Duke University and the media and the public were naive.
Lots of people also believe in telekinesis: controlling objects such as dice through thoughts. During WW II John Scarne taught classes to soldiers about how to protect themselves from cheaters. He had the entire class think ?Seven? while he rolled dice. After millions of trials, the results were no different from chance.
Nobody can predict or control random events, and anyone who claims he can do so is either misguided or a fraud.
You aren?t a fraud, but you have let your mind play tricks on you. You believe that an expected card appeared more often than it should by chance. The reason is very simple. You don't remember all the times it didn't appear. If you doubt me, just sit down, record your expected card, then deal. If you collect enough data, you will find (as Dr. Rhine found) that you can't predict that card.
Let's return to the original question about why people believe such BS. The answer is very simple, they want to believe. You and millions of people let your minds trick you into believing that you can predict cards because it means you're not subject to the immutable laws of randomness and probability.
As long as you let irrational beliefs influence your thinking and play, you will cost yourself lots of money. Sorry to rain on your parade, but that?s what the scientific evidence very clearly states.
Regards,
Al

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

"Some folks trust in reason
others trust in might
I don't trust in nothin'
and I always end up right"

the Grateful Dead

[Ryan_21]

I completely agree that the thought of being able to control random events is bs. However here is a quote from the movie Bandits that always sticks out in my mind, b/c I feel the same way.

"The trouble with being smart, is that you pretty much already know whats going to happen before it happens."

I feel I can read people great and I find myself feeling this way in a lot of things not just poker. Last night I had my A game and I was playing and the people just seemed so predictable. I could just about tell you who would win the pot, who would bet next round if they would checkraise and all that. Now of course I wasnt always right but I was right on my reads the majority of the time.

So my question is, do you feel that there are people who can think a step or two ahead of everyone else, and kind of anticipate people's thoughts and actions with accuracy, and not just in the poker world?

Also another question. I have another saying that I feel relates to me.

It was made buy a sports anouncer about the St. Louis Rams head coach Mike Martz who has a reputation for being an offensive genius. The announcer beleives they are loosing b/c Martz doesnt stick to the basics and hand the ball off to Marshall Faulk enough.

The saying is this: "Whenever he sticks to the basics they win, whenever this guy starts to feel like a genius and start throwing the ball they start to lose."

I felt this way last night and I think it leads to my downfall. I will always stick to the basics to start a session and I will be doing good. But then I'll get reads on my opponents and I think I can outthink/outplay them, and as soon as I start to feel like a genius I start to lose. I open up my starting hand requirements and I start to make funky moves and I think I can find +ev situations and make my own + ev situations and everything just goes to heck. I know the best advice would be to just stick to basics, but it is deeper than that and more difficult so I need some advice. Also I'm going to repost this at the top b/c I think this topic needs its own thread.

Ryan_21

[Jimbo]

I play almost strictly using logic. the only exceptions I succumb to are:

I do not play poker;
1)on Sundays instead of attending church.
2)during a solar eclipse
3)during a full moon
4)on Friday the 13th
5)under a ladder or even latticework
6)in the path of any black cats
7)within 7 years of breaking a mirror
8)without my lucky 4 leaf clover
9)or with anyone who is superstitious

Jimbo

[Herb N.]

Al,I'm the last[or one of the last]person who believes in superstition.BUT there are times I call for a card and that card comes.I cant force it ,if I do it dont work.people that have played with me for years have seen it happen over and over.I guess Im batting 40%.I've thought about it.Maby its the power of deduction.If so 40% even 20% would be too high.Now that IM dissusing this Mayby there are SELECT situations where the power of deduction MAY make the card come to mind,kinda like a card conter in B.J.MAYBY,but MAYBY there IS something to ESP? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif Whatever the case this is something that I dont have,or expect to rely on. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

OK Al, how do you explain this?

Fellow in third seat is packing his chips into a rack...well packing them into four racks. I see lots of red round chips in his stacks that look very much like the ones I had when I started the game two hours ago. Now, I can't tell you that they are the very ones I had; I can only say that my stacks are shorter and fewer, and his are taller and greater in number. I don't begrudge this turn of events; this is poker. He played well; made some moves that caused me to fold a few winners. He deserves his success.

Bear with me. A few minutes before, his wife came to the table and whispered something in his ear. He folded his cards and sought the aforesaid four racks. He got them arranged properly, picked up his coat, and said as he was leaving: "I've got to go now. My wife has this new system for beating roulette. I've got to go try it out."

In an instance, I turn from not begruding his winning, to questioning my faith in logic, probabilities, and poker skill. Above all, Al, I want to know how all of my practice, experience, book reading, logic, odds calculations, and on and on were brought up against this guy who probably believes we didn't land on the moon, AND I LOSE TO HIM!

My explanation? THERE IS NO POKER JUSTICE! Right and might lose to luck! He's going to take MY chips over to the roulette wheel and perform some check for imperfections in the wheel, try to detect some winning pattern on the table,and try to use some astrological, numerological data to lose the chips that came from an expert poker player.

No wonder we all believe in the gutshot draw! There really is no poker justice anymore.

TiltMan

[Al Schoonmaker]

You wrote: "My explanation? THERE IS NO POKER JUSTICE! Right and might lose to luck! He's going to take MY chips over to the roulette wheel and perform some check for imperfections in the wheel, try to detect some winning pattern on the table,and try to use some astrological, numerological data to lose the chips that came from an expert poker player.

"No wonder we all believe in the gutshot draw! There really is no poker justice anymore."

Ah, but there is. It just takes a long time to operate. If you play properly, you will win. Because he is dumb enough to believe he can beat roulette, he probably plays poker poorly, he will probably lose. But it may take a long time before that pattern is visible.

Any jerk can win tonight, for a week, and maybe for a month. But sooner or later the immutable laws of probability will catch up with him. How else do you explain that some players have won every year for 30 years in a row?

So stop thinking about the short term and remember that cliche, "It's all one long poker game."

Al

[Al Schoonmaker]

Thanks for a good laugh.

Al