Going to war with 22

[Scotch78]

I wouldn't call the BB a full-fledged maniac, but LAG doesn't cut it either. He's played every hand so far (~20 minutes) and I've seen him bluff all three streets in a hand. Should I give more action at some point, or is this line okay?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Rodney D.

[mperich]

No more action. You have the lowest underpair. Calling down is ok tho.

-Mike

[Joe826]

what does capping preflop get you?

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
what does raiseing preflop get you?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]
what does raising preflop get you?

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[tongni]

Fold preflop.

[Scotch78]

Being out of position with an underpair gives me no ability to control the hand, but I don't think I need to take charge. I expected the BB to continue betting even if he was behind, in which case he won't capitalize on his advantage, and I basically get 1-1 odds as a slight favorite. I don't know the exact percentages against a random hand, or how often he has to check behind without a pair in order to ruin my EV, so I'm definitely open to a different line, but my intuition is that any pair will be +EV against a major LAG.

Rodney D.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Calling with a small pair OOP is always a bad idea. It is justifiable in position, where you have substantial bluff equity HU. Absent bluff equity, preflop at best you will be a small favorite, and at worst you will be a huge dog. On the flop, even if you're ahead, it is hard to establish this out of position, and if you're behind (as you will be 35% of the time), you're absolutely crushed.

[Surfbullet]

OPs description of the villain here is somewhere between LAG and full-fledged maniac. Having a pair to start in a blind war gives us an advantage over what is nearly a random hand as villain will try to bluff us out with all sorts of unpaired hands, and we can let him try and call down profitably.

We're not looking for bluff equity, we're looking to showdown a better hand against someone who is capable (and has shown a tendency to) bluff at all three streets.

Surf

[Schneids]

I don't cap PF but play it the same the rest of the way.

[Matty]

I'd fold preflop. 22 is only about 50% to win against a random hand, and so if the villian bets any more often with a pair than without a pair, you're screwed. I don't think your chance at trips nearly overcomes this.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold preflop. 22 is only about 50% to win against a random hand, and so if the villian bets any more often with a pair than without a pair, you're screwed. I don't think your chance at trips nearly overcomes this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like villain will bet all streets for you no matter what... So you're 50-50 and even EV. Factor in the fact you'll go to war with him when you get a set and that makes it +EV IMO.

[Matty]

OP said: [ QUOTE ]
He's played every hand so far (~20 minutes) and I've seen him bluff all three streets in a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]I assume this means only one of the hands.

/shrug

[Trix]

There really isn´t any reason to cap with a hand that is 50/50 against a random when it may change the way he will play after the flop.

Cap, check looks pretty sneaky to anyone and it will be hard to know in what way it will affect him.

If it will make him check down some streets with weaker made hands to avoid check-raises, but he will still bluff when he has nothing, then it´s very nice, you just dont have any idea about it.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
Having a pair to start in a blind war gives us an advantage over what is nearly a random hand as villain will try to bluff us out with all sorts of unpaired hands, and we can let him try and call down profitably.

We're not looking for bluff equity, we're looking to showdown a better hand against someone who is capable (and has shown a tendency to) bluff at all three streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you are wrong. 22 enjoys no meaningful edge over a RH. According to Pokerstove, it has a pot equity of 50.334% against a random hand.

Since you are essentially an even money bet against a RH, in order to be profitable, you must have bluff equity to make the play. (This, for example, is why you would reraise preflop rather than just call down.)

However you have no real bluff equity either, because of your inferior position, and the aggressive tendencies of the villain. (If villain were tight, you would have a better chance of outplaying him on the flop after a preflop re-raise.) However by your own estimation, villain will go to showdown.

Playing 22 in this manner achieves only one result: increased variance with no commensurate increase to EV. It is a horrible, LAGgy play, and should be done only for metagame purposes, not as a standalone +EV stategy.

[Joe826]

I don't think anyone is arguing that the EV close. You're probably not making a huge mistake if you fold the hand but if we can most likely count on villain to bet until the river regardless of his holding it's not bad.

Also, it's not much, but we should factor in the blind money when talking about preflop percentages.

[Jeff W]

I agree with this analysis for the right type of opponent. It is at Scotch's discretion to determine if his opponent fits the profile.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you are essentially an even money bet against a RH, in order to be profitable, you must have bluff equity to make the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have folding equity when you first raise pre-flop.

When you hit a set, you're going to win a lot against this type of opponent.

Your position isn't inferior in terms of a bluffing point of view. Frequently, being first to act is advantageous in terms of bluffing HU.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
You have folding equity when you first raise pre-flop.

When you hit a set, you're going to win a lot against this type of opponent.

Your position isn't inferior in terms of a bluffing point of view. Frequently, being first to act is advantageous in terms of bluffing HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Against an ordinary opponent, I would agree that a steal raise from the SB against the BB has some fold equity. However Hero's read that villain is somewhere between a "full fledged maniac" and a "LAG" negates the fold equity. I view this as very similar to the situation in HPFAP where you're on the button holding ace-rag and trying to decide whether to raise. Against tight blinds, it is an auto raise. Against a loose blind who will always call, Sklansky says it is better to limp. Same concept here.

2. In terms of hitting a set, I'm not convinced the math works. My intuition tells me that the "if you hit a set" rationale is more often than not, just an excuse to LAG it up. Playing in full ring games, I muck small pairs in shorthanded pots because the set value isnt there. It is equally wrong in SH games if there is no fold/steal/bluff equity, particularly to cap it preflop.

3. I agree that acting first is an advantage in bluffing heads up against certain opponents. However, this is only true against opponents who are unlikely to reraise you. If the opponent is LAGgy and will try to reraise you, he can overcome the positional advantage of first action in a heads up pot. I think this play doesn't work against this type of villain.

[Derek in NYC]

Assuming you agree there is no fold equity b/c these kind of guys dont fold to PFRs, why not just complete and call down and let villain bet ace-unimproved to the river? Raising (let alone capping it), just increases variance in a situation where you enjoy, at best, a very slender edge. Go to war only if you hit your set, otherwise check call.

[Scotch78]

I wasn't certain at the time I played the hand, but several people have made some good points and I'm now convinced that this hand needs to see a showdown against this type of player. First off, even though it's just a small amount, folding my live blind is -EV. Second, 22 should be slightly +EV agaisnt a random hand given its implied odds on a set. That said, I think it would've been best to limp. Since I'm out of position with no bluffing equity, it's crucial that the BB bet when he's behind, and showing aggression could decrease that chance.

Rodney D.

PS Villain showed QJ and MHIG