TT in MP1

[Ptolemy]

Reads:
UTG was pretty much an ATM, just giving money away to observant players. He has capped PF w/ K5s, called down 92o hitting bottom pair on the flop, and doing just about anything you can think of. He has even hit a few hands and tried to get "tricky".

UTG+2 was a different story. A good player who didn't get out of line much and observant enough to try and isolate UTG. We clashed once with my set beating his set.

The hand:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero?

UTG+2's cap after my reraise PF plus the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the board says that almost every hand he could have beats me. However, the check on the flop makes me thing he is afraid of the A. He also could have hit a set of Js or As and looking to c/r it hoping I hit the flop. Do you risk representing an A in this position againsts a good player hoping for a fold (something he may do but not a given) or check it through with UTG still in the hand and possibly holding an A or J?

[toss]

Smells like a trap. I'd check and see what happens.

[homebrewer]

I don't think I 3 bet this preflop (weak tight?)

Perhaps, UTG+2 slowed down because he's holding QQ or KK. Your preflop 3-bet put him on notice that you might have a premium hand - possibly AA or JJ.

I like betting this flop. Depending on your reads, if villain reraises then I consider calling and folding the turn UI.

[ArturiusX]

Easy 3-bet with position.

I can't see you being good by the river with this much aggression preflop. Check it and ruin their plans.

[jaxUp]

check. Pray for a T on the turn. If he's smart, he would have bet a vulnerable-ish hand (TPGK) and will c/r a good hand, trapping donk UTG. you are ahead of no capping hands here.

[teajay]

This is a bad situation but I'd still bet. If you don't, I think you're showing a weakness and one of your opponents will bet into you on the turn no matter what. Then what will you do?

If you get check raised by UTG+2 I'd call and re-evaluate on the turn. If it gets checked to you again you're in position to take the free card. If either opponent bets into you, then I would fold UI on the turn bet.

Travis

[aK13]

Looks like preflop capper has a high pocket pair, JJ-KK, and is afraid that you hold something like AK. If you know you're opponent is weak, I'd try to push him off his hand by representing the ace. If he likes to call down to the river even though he knows he's probably beat, I'd check and hope I hit my set.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Reads:
UTG+2 was a different story. A good player who didn't get out of line much and observant enough to try and isolate UTG. We clashed once with my set beating his set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mr. Not-Out-of-Line caps preflop. He checks the AJ4 spade draw board. Either he's scared, or it's a trap. With the pot at 13.5 SB, I'd bet-fold this one. If he's a weak player, he might have KK-QQ and call the flop/check the turn. If you check, he's almost certainly betting into you on the turn. Make a defensive bet here and hope he doesn't check-raise you.

[tiltaholic]

i agree with aaron's line.
i like a flop bet-fold.
you can't check the flop because then you face an almost certain bet on the big street which could range from bluffing overcards to a strong made hand.

[Catt]

This is an uncomfortable position, but you have to bet this flop. Your hand is vulnerable and you cannot afford to give free cards. If you do not bet here, you almost certainly kiss a nice-sized pot away unless you turn a T. You can even peel one off on the flop if you are check-raised -- you'll be getting 17.5 to 1 if UTG calls your bet and UTG+1 C/Rs, and unless UTG+1 has AA or Axs in spades, I think you've got enough outs to make a slightly loose flop call given you'll be assured of some big street action if a nice card falls on the turn.

[PokerProdigy]

Bet this flop because UTG+2 probably fears the ace, and it will give you a better feel for where you're at in the hand.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an uncomfortable position, but you have to bet this flop. Your hand is vulnerable and you cannot afford to give free cards. If you do not bet here, you almost certainly kiss a nice-sized pot away unless you turn a T. You can even peel one off on the flop if you are check-raised -- you'll be getting 17.5 to 1 if UTG calls your bet and UTG+1 C/Rs, and unless UTG+1 has AA or Axs in spades, I think you've got enough outs to make a slightly loose flop call given you'll be assured of some big street action if a nice card falls on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about calling the check-raise, but I'm not sure how much I like it. You've got a 4.4% chance of hitting your hand (2/45 since you know that villain doesn't have a ten).

EV = (% miss)*(-1) + (% hit)(17.5 + implied)
= -.956 + .77 + .044*(implied)
= -.186 + .044*(implied)

To break even, you need to have (implied) = 4.2 SB. It looks good, but you need to figure out what a check-raise really means.

Will he check-raise AK? There are 12 combinations of that out there. If he does AND you hit your ten, you're probably going to win 3 BB off of him and another 2-3 BB off of ATM. That's 5-6 BB on these 12 situations.

If the check-raise indicates a set (AA or JJ == 12 combinations), you're probably going to LOSE 4 BB (or more).

Because of this, I think calling the check-raise is a bad plan. It's pretty close (for example, if he will push AK hard on the turn after you raise him again, you're okay -- remember that he's facing the AJT board when you hit your set and your play will look KQ-ish). If you had one more donk in there to pay you off (even one calling the flop bets would be enough), I think you would be much safer.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an uncomfortable position, but you have to bet this flop. Your hand is vulnerable and you cannot afford to give free cards. If you do not bet here, you almost certainly kiss a nice-sized pot away unless you turn a T. You can even peel one off on the flop if you are check-raised -- you'll be getting 17.5 to 1 if UTG calls your bet and UTG+1 C/Rs, and unless UTG+1 has AA or Axs in spades, I think you've got enough outs to make a slightly loose flop call given you'll be assured of some big street action if a nice card falls on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this hand some more on my drive home, and I am less convinced about my original post. In thinking about it originally, I gave UTG+2 a pretty wide capping range based on the personalities involved in the hand and described by OP. But even with a wide range, we're still behind most hands he could have. Unless he's tilting a bit, I can't see expanding his capping range beyond 99 at the most, ATs at the most, and maybe KQs, maybe QJs at the most.

What makes this hand interesting for me is the relative positions of the non-donks in the hand, the pot size relative to our hand and Villain's range, and the presence of our donk. We have a small chance that we're actually ahead. We have a strong chance that we're behind with a few outs.

With no bets going in on the flop, we're likely to have at best a thin call given the pot size to draw even if we turn a gutshot, depending on the range of hands we give to Villain. But there remains a slim chance that we're actually ahead here. The sad scenario is Villain capped with KQs or another hand that we are actually ahead of on the flop, refused to bet for fear that we blow out the donk, and turns a K or a Q when we didn't put money in with an equity advantage.

I'd like to better understand the reads OP has on Villain and the reads Villain is likely to have on OP. I might try betting this flop, folding to a C/R (though I might peel, too), and letting the turn check through if Villain only calls. Even though I said earlier that we can't be giving free cards with our hand, I'm not sure that we're ahead often enough, and that free cards are dangerous enough, to not try to get to showdown for 1.5 BBs. Is Villain likely to call the flop and wait to pop the turn if he thinks he is ahead? Is he likely to cap without an A in his hand or ever fold to a bet with a strong, non-A hand (like KK or QQ)? Should Hero be willing to showdown his hand in this pot for 2 BBs by checking the flop and calling the turn and river? (I don't think so). Should Hero be willing to risk the turn free card if he escapes a C/R on the flop and show down his hand for 1.5 BBs or an unlikely .5 BBs?

Interesting flop dilemma. Interesting hand-reading / psychology / playing the player situation. Easy to spew chips, too.

[Redd]

I don't understand why you guys want to put money in on this flop - if he doesn't get out of line much, what hands do you put Villain on that you beat? He either appears to be going for a trap check-raise, or he has a high PP (that he'll likely call down with) and fears you have an ace.

I'd just take my free shot at another ten and check-fold the turn UI.

[Catt]

Believe it or not, I cross-posted with your post because I had my second reply open for so long and didn't see your response until I hit submit on the previous post.

I gave Hero 0.5 outs for the BDSD (turning and rivering a K and Q). At 2.5 outs, we're 17.8:1 and if the flop goes ck-ck-bet-call-Ck-Rs, we're facing 17:1 on calling the raise with a decent chance that donk calls, too. But there's always a chance that donk raises and the very real possibility that we don't have 2.5 outs of course. This, in my mind, is partially offset by the chance that Villain will call the flop with the intention of check-raising the turn.

If I thought there was a real chance that he would forego a flop C/R in favor of a turn C/R, I might bet the flop with the intention of checking through the turn even with our vulnerable hand.

Lots of things have to go right for us whatever course of action we take, of course. I would really love nothing more than betting the flop, having Villain call; checking through the turn and foiling his "hit 'em on the big street" plan; and making our hand on the river.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you guys want to put money in on this flop - if he doesn't get out of line much, what hands do you put Villain on that you beat? He either appears to be going for a trap check-raise, or he has a high PP (that he'll likely call down with) and fears you have an ace.

I'd just take my free shot at another ten and check-fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a totally reasonable course of action. Thing is I hate to lose a pot this size if "not out of line" means he isn't tricky or fond of trying to make a move (like "hit em on the big street"). I think I am willing to put a SB in on the flop if I think Villain will smooth call and go for a C/R on the turn. I'd love to see the river for a SB in a pot this size -- I just have no idea whether this is at all likely with this Villain.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I am willing to put a SB in on the flop if I think Villain will smooth call and go for a C/R on the turn. I'd love to see the river for a SB in a pot this size -- I just have no idea whether this is at all likely with this Villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's our problem. If we say we have a little over 2 outs, then we'd be around 12ish:1 to make our draw by the river. That means that we can just barely get the odds if we're guaranteed not to see any more action until the riv. If Villain is c/ring us, or if he wakes up on the turn, or if our donkish caller hits bottom pair and raises, then our odds are shot. Then we voluntarily paid an extra SB to draw to our two-outer.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you guys want to put money in on this flop - if he doesn't get out of line much, what hands do you put Villain on that you beat? He either appears to be going for a trap check-raise, or he has a high PP (that he'll likely call down with) and fears you have an ace.

I'd just take my free shot at another ten and check-fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll quote something Catt said:

[ QUOTE ]
Lots of things have to go right for us whatever course of action we take, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an ugly situation from all angles. Taking the free card and hoping to hit the 2-outer is perfectly acceptable. However, by taking this route, you are basically forfeiting a decent sized pot because you're going to fold when bet into on the turn unless you hit a ten.

However, by betting the flop, you may get yourself to the river for 1 SB. This bet will sometimes buy the entire pot for you (investing 1 SB to win a 15.5 SB pot plus river bets when you're around 10 to 1 to get your hand by the river). It's a tough bet to make because you don't always get to the river for free and you'll sometimes have to give it up on the turn (or fold to a check-raise, which is another debatable decision).

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I am willing to put a SB in on the flop if I think Villain will smooth call and go for a C/R on the turn. I'd love to see the river for a SB in a pot this size -- I just have no idea whether this is at all likely with this Villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's our problem. If we say we have a little over 2 outs, then we'd be around 12ish:1 to make our draw by the river. That means that we can just barely get the odds if we're guaranteed not to see any more action until the riv. If Villain is c/ring us, or if he wakes up on the turn, or if our donkish caller hits bottom pair and raises, then our odds are shot. Then we voluntarily paid an extra SB to draw to our two-outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a small chance we're ahead. I am assuming that donk won't raise -- the thin read is that while he has been aggro pre-flop, he has also called down with a weak hand (as opposed to going nuts with it) -- this is a big assumption, yes. If we're check-raised, I think folding is probably better than calling the check-raise. If we're not check-raised, then we most likely get to see the river cheaply. If we see the turn and donk or Villain leads, we're almost certainly folding.

But we're looking at a big pot, and a favorable turn card can have us drawing to a gutshot and a set. I want to find a way to give us the best possible chance of winning this big pot. That best possible chance means we want to see the turn and the river, instead of looking for a way to see the turn alone without risking anything further. In sum, I think there's a good chance that we need to see the turn and river to win the hand, and I'm looking for a way to see both streets cheaply. I think there is 0% chance of doing so by checking the flop; I am trying to guestimate what that chance becomes if we bet the flop. If Villain is a habitual "wait for thr turn" player, I think I like the flop bet.

[Ed Miller]

Check. He's not folding whether he's scared of the ace or not. Hope you pick up something on the turn (or not).

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
Check. He's not folding whether he's scared of the ace or not. Hope you pick up something on the turn (or not).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Ed. If you stick around long enough to see this, does the quote below strike you as chip spewing:

[ QUOTE ]
But we're looking at a big pot, and a favorable turn card can have us drawing to a gutshot and a set. I want to find a way to give us the best possible chance of winning this big pot. That best possible chance means we want to see the turn and the river, instead of looking for a way to see the turn alone without risking anything further. In sum, I think there's a good chance that we need to see the turn and river to win the hand, and I'm looking for a way to see both streets cheaply. I think there is 0% chance of doing so by checking the flop; I am trying to guestimate what that chance becomes if we bet the flop. If Villain is a habitual "wait for thr turn" player, I think I like the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ed Miller]

The chance of being check-raised is fairly high, there's a decent chance you're already against a bigger set than tens, and you're almost certainly not getting anyone to fold. I think betting for a free card with virtually no real draw is unwise.

[Catt]

Thanks. Great to see you occasionally popping into the forums!

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance of being check-raised is fairly high, there's a decent chance you're already against a bigger set than tens, and you're almost certainly not getting anyone to fold. I think betting for a free card with virtually no real draw is unwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a draw that would be "strong enough" to make a free card bet here? The two-outer comes in about 9% of the time by the river, knowing that villain almost certainly does not have a ten. A bet here is one bet to win 15 plus river bets (assuming the play works and the hand is good). How often do you think it works in this situation?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
If the check-raise indicates a set (AA or JJ == 12 combinations), you're probably going to LOSE 4 BB (or more).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh -- Terrible double-counting here. 6 hands total, not 6 hands of each. This miscount actually skews the calculation in favor of Catt's thought to call the check-raise. When you bet, you're pretty stuck with calling a check-raise -- which means checking might be better. (I know Ed thinks so, and I'm pretty sure that he's right, but I have lingering questions that I hope he'll answer.)

If the pot were smaller, then you wouldn't want to take a stab at it with such a weak hand. If the pot were bigger... well... you run into the question of putting up a defensive bet on the flop.

[Mike Z]

I would Bet and fold to a rasie