is this bubble push ok?... KQs in a 22

[syphlix]

big stack was doing a good amount of raising and calling... generally pretty loose i think... had busted the 5th place guy w/ 92o on last hand...

is it worth it to go for it here?... what do you think?... i figgered that i wasn't so much of a leader that i could afford to sit on my laurels and wait for someone to bust... what do you think?



NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:11415951 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Monday, April 18, 18:40:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 14262 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: colargold ( $4595 )
Seat 5: RakeMeBaby ( $1610 )
Seat 6: BayouB777J ( $910 )
Seat 7: stargate1025 ( $885 )
Trny:11415951 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RakeMeBaby [ Kh Qh ]
BayouB777J folds.
colargold: lol
stargate1025 folds.
colargold raises [400].
RakeMeBaby is all-In [1510]

[bones]

With 15bbs left, I don't think you rate to be ahead enough of the time to make this a good push.

[sng-sam]

You have 16 Big Blinds. No one I repeat no one is going out anytime soon via blinding down. Therefore with 16 BB and 2 semishort stacks. You must avoid taking on the one guy who can bust you and let one or both of these short stacks do it instead. One of them will enter a hand and either fold (creating a short stack emergency),lose (probably losing it all), or win creating pressure on the other short stack. Either way this is a bad push. If you had less than 6 BB and yours was the small stack you could try it out of desperation otherwise fold. Live to fight another day. Winning a SNG is about making the least mistakes.

[Matt Walker]

If we assume this guys hand is random and that he will be calling (and I think both are safe assumptions if he busted someone with 92o last hand) Then this just because a math problem. If you fold you figure to win 25 percent of the prize pool using ICM calculations.

KQ has a 63 percent chance to win against a random hand. This 63% of the time you figure to take home 34.5 percent of the prize pool. The other 37 percent you obviously get zero. So when you push your expected value is .63*.345=.217

Since the expected value of the fold is higher it seems to be the right play. Additinoally ICM assumes that all players play equally well which doesn't seem to be the case if this guy is raising everything. This argues more for a fold as you can outplay him later if you are still in.

[sng-sam]

[ QUOTE ]
Since the expected value of the fold is higher it seems to be the right play

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

I never have been able to understand all that ICM gobbldyguk. But it confirms what I already said. Fold and live to fight another day.

[curtains]

Yeah folding is best but only because of the prize structure and so on.

[Matt R.]

I don't like the assumption that he will be calling a 1110 chip raise with any random hand. OP said that he busted the 5th place guy with 92o. If he's raising every hand and the 5th place guy had, say, 600 chips behind, the big stack is obviously getting much better odds to call. In this case, he's getting less than 2:1 on the call, so if he's any type of decent player he'll fold a complete trash hand. Of course, if the big stack called an all-in with 92o with much worse odds, or he's done other similarly crazy stuff, my point is irrelevant. That being said, I kind of like the push if he's raising every hand, as it shows the big stack you'll play back at him on the bubble.

[Matt Walker]

You make a good point about the circumstances of the previous hand, but the fact that he called with 92o was posted for a reason. If a short stack pushed for less than 2x the big blind and this joker called with 92o and won then the hand is irrelevant in our considerations, and shouldn't have been mentioned. I think the 92o hand was posted to show this guy is loose and bad. So while how the previous hand played out is important, in general I like my assumptions. The pot about 2000, and he only has to call 1100. This guy is bad and hes getting good pot odds, I'd be shocked if he folded based on the prior description. This is a 20+2, many people get married to thier hands.