Taking a beating when preparing to jump limits [Archive]

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 12:26 PM

This is the 3d time this has happened to me and I almost launched my monitor though the wall this time.

Situation: I have a decent run over the past few weeks and build my bankroll up to almost where I am ready to jump to the next level.

The Plan: Play my standard number of SnG's over the weekend to consolidate my BR and make the jump on monday.

Result: Sat and Sun I get shut out playing my normal game and my BR has dropped to where I am basically starting over to get to the next level.

My play: Not to get into a Bad Beat post, but every loss but one was a bad beat - the worst 2 were AA cracked by Q4o and K6o. The others were TPTK AK with an A on the flop cracked by a set and one short stack all in with 88 loss to AK. Each was a PF push which is the only leak I can imagine and each was at level 5 or beyond with 6 or more players remaining. Every steal attempt, from any position (but mostly late) was called by at least one player if not more.

I play 5.50 on UB and intended to jump to 11.

I single tabled each of these.

I avg. 8 SnGs during the week in the evening and 8 over the weekend.

I played 10 5.50's this past weekend ($-55). Starting BR $265, ending BR 210. My req. for going to $11 is $300+.

Any thoughts and advice will be welcome. I am ready to go back to work and feel confident but a little pissed off.

Phil Van Sexton

04-18-2005, 12:29 PM

Either sample size too small or an example of regression to the mean. (http://www.visi.com/~thornley/david/philosophy/thinking/mean.html)

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 12:42 PM

I am pretty much in the same situation with my roll & move up plans. PM me if you have a question because I am in the same boat.
I've been up & down at the 5s as well & trying to move up to the 11s.

I am kind of trying to play with the least chance of ruin possible. What's the best BR to start at the 11s if I am just single tabling?

Baked67

04-18-2005, 12:52 PM

Honestly, just take stabs at the tens. My requirement bankroll for then 10's is $275. A little low for some, but I just dont see the point in dilly dallying around at the five dollar tables when you have over 30 buy ins for the fives. 210 dollars is 38 buy ins for the five dollar tables. Plenty of padding for you to play some 10 dollar tables IMO...

zipppy

04-18-2005, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
210 dollars is 38 buy ins for the five dollar tables. Plenty of padding for you to play some 10 dollar tables IMO...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why should the amount of $5 buyins he has influence whether he plays the $10 SNGs? If he has 38 $5 buyins then he has plenty of padding for $5 SNGs.

I'm not saying you shouldn't move up (I think you should), but just look at your bankroll from the right perspective when doing so.

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 01:04 PM

Gator Man!

PM Sent.

vindikation

04-18-2005, 01:06 PM

I remember hitting some back luck as well when I first jumped from the $5.50 to $11 SnG's. I'm curretnly playing the $11 SnG's and have been trying to move up to the $20's but seem to get slammed the last few times I tried moving up with the 30 buyin rule. To overcome this shock I've basically established this limit/bankroll:

$0-$500 - $5.50 SnG's
$500-$1000 - $11 SnG's
$1000-? - $22 SnG's

It's a lot more than 30 buyins and it shouldn't shock me too much when I move up and lose. My bankroll is currently $700 so I have a ways to go.

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 01:09 PM

My only thing with this is it takes forever seemingly to get to 500 when playing the 5s.

zipppy

04-18-2005, 01:14 PM

Taking a long time to move up can have its benefits too. Assuming 20% ROI at the 5s, it would take ~500 SNGs to make $500, which coincidently enough is a decent number of SNGs to evaluate where someone is at.

Personally I move up at 30-40 buyins.

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Taking a long time to move up can have its benefits too. Assuming 20% ROI at the 5s, it would take ~500 SNGs to make $500, which coincidently enough is a decent number of SNGs to evaluate where someone is at.

Personally I move up at 30-40 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I just did the math myself assuming a 30% ROI but 20% is more realistic. Playing 16 a week will take me more than 6 months! I could go back to multi but my ROI will drop as well and I don't see myself as multi-tabling until I get my act together from last weekend.

Apathy

04-18-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am kind of trying to play with the least chance of ruin possible. What's the best BR to start at the 11s if I am just single tabling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if you require the least amount of ruin possible then the more the better butif you are asking when is it safe to move up if I am a x%itm x%roi player single tabling, when is it possible to move up with a < 10% ROR, then you can just do the math.

My guess for the tens is that 20 buyins is easily enough, especially when single tabling.

Baked67

04-18-2005, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why should the amount of $5 buyins he has influence whether he plays the $10 SNGs? If he has 38 $5 buyins then he has plenty of padding for $5 SNGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying he has an adequate bankroll for the tens. I'm saying he has room to bounce around if he chooses. I started stabbing at the tens when I had about two hundred dollars because I had extra buy ins (then the recomended thirty) so I set a 40 or 50 dollar limit to test the waters in the ten dollar tournies. Is this wrong? Maybe I need better bankroll management skills...

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 02:07 PM

Thanks...been needing to hear that for a while, especially from someone like you.

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 02:08 PM

No, I think this is ok since the 10s are as weak as the 5s. At any other level this wouldn't be ok.

tech

04-18-2005, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The Plan: Play my standard number of SnG's over the weekend to consolidate my BR and make the jump on monday.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the games are usually much softer on Fridays and Saturdays, I always try to start a move-up on a Friday. It helps to get off to a fast start at the new level, if for no other reason than to help build confidence. Good luck.

Apathy

04-18-2005, 02:15 PM

This...

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying he has an adequate bankroll for the tens. I'm saying he has room to bounce around if he chooses. I started stabbing at the tens when I had about two hundred dollars because I had extra buy ins (then the recomended thirty) so I set a 40 or 50 dollar limit to test the waters in the ten dollar tournies. Is this wrong? Maybe I need better bankroll management skills...

[/ QUOTE ]

And This...

[ QUOTE ]
Since the games are usually much softer on Fridays and Saturdays, I always try to start a move-up on a Friday. It helps to get off to a fast start at the new level, if for no other reason than to help build confidence. Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are good pieces of advice for any level you wish to move up to.

Take some shots first if you have enough money before moving up. Do it when the games are fishy. It will make the transition and your decision a lot easier.

To this I would also add (for the multi-tablers out there) PLAY LESS TABLES (at the higher limit).

vindikation

04-18-2005, 02:20 PM

The jump from $5 to $10 isn't really much of a skill change so I think you would be safe with taking a stab with $350-$400. It does take a while building the bankroll playins the $5's. If your bankroll drops to $250 or so, just go back to the $5 games, not that big a deal.

I was really nervous jumping from the $5's to the $10's but it wasn't really that much of a change at all. Just find your own comfort level with the limit and bankroll.

Good luck.

1C5

04-18-2005, 02:22 PM

Also what I did to help was to bonus whore at first which has gotten me quite a bit of money.

Sign up bonus at party and all skins is 600 bucks in bonus right there.

Beer Doctor

04-18-2005, 02:26 PM

I didn't finish reading all of the posts so this may be redundant but I think I'm a player similar to yourself so it may be some helpful advice.
I myself decided to start playing the 10$ SnGs with a different persepective. I figured the same type of players were playing the 10$ games and even probably a little higher (20 etc.) as the people playing in the 5$ games. The difference is they have more money to burn. I figured that moving up because of my skill level was more advantageous than moving up because of my bankroll. If you win 5 times a week and don't make the money the other 5 times than you win about 100 dollars. If you do the same in the 10 dollar games you win 200 dollars. Same players just better rewards. Poker is a lot about theory but its also gambling. Your bankroll is a lot bigger than mine so IMO give it a try. Be more weary about MTT because its much more difficult to finish in the money and requires a little more luck.

Sam T.

04-18-2005, 02:26 PM

I'm with you, bro.

I played my way from $500 to $900 on Party's $11s, and figured at $1000, I would start playing some $20s. Hello, 8 game OOTM streak.

Note - with a tiny sample like this, your losing streak is quite possibly all variance. During my streak: with four left, my QQ was beaten by runner-runner flush; again with four left, A9o called my push with AK, and made a flush; I went out ninth when JJ ran into KK on a 9-high flop; etc., etc., etc.. I know you weren't doubting your ability, so I guess my point is that you shouldn't start now.

One approach others have suggested is that you ease into the higher level. A good rule of thumb might be that for every first place at the $5.50 game, you will play one $11.00. It's only a small portion of your profit, so it should not threaten your bank-roll.

Good luck,

Sam

Baked67

04-18-2005, 02:34 PM

can u clear bonus' on party and skins play sit n go's? Cuz if you can I may start to bonus whore myself...

syphlix

04-18-2005, 02:40 PM

haven't read all the other replies... so sorry if i say something someone else has already...

if you're avg'ing 16 tourney's a week... you've prob got some sample size issues...

that being said though... if you're a decent player... then u have enough to take stabs at 10's if you want... they shouldn't be much dif. at all...

microbet

04-18-2005, 02:41 PM

Buh, I barely played any $6's because of the higher rake, but from what I saw they were considerably weaker than the $11's. Hard to overcome the difference in rake though.

1C5

04-18-2005, 02:42 PM

No, but they clear quick at 25NL.

Not as quick as 100NL 6 max /images/graemlins/wink.gif But not bad.

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

One approach others have suggested is that you ease into the higher level. A good rule of thumb might be that for every first place at the $5.50 game, you will play one $11.00. It's only a small portion of your profit, so it should not threaten your bank-roll.

Good luck,

Sam

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Sam, I think this is excellent advice and worth giving a shot.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with you, bro.

I played my way from $500 to $900 on Party's $11s, and figured at $1000, I would start playing some $20s. Hello, 8 game OOTM streak.

Note - with a tiny sample like this, your losing streak is quite possibly all variance. During my streak: with four left, my QQ was beaten by runner-runner flush; again with four left, A9o called my push with AK, and made a flush; I went out ninth when JJ ran into KK on a 9-high flop; etc., etc., etc.. I know you weren't doubting your ability, so I guess my point is that you shouldn't start now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amazing, isn't it? I didn't want to get too much into a bad beat post but it really sort of shocked me. Suck out after suck out. The incident that almost became my monitor going through my wall was the last one were my AA was cracked by Q4o. I quit right there and then.

Great comments, thanks.

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am kind of trying to play with the least chance of ruin possible. What's the best BR to start at the 11s if I am just single tabling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if you require the least amount of ruin possible then the more the better butif you are asking when is it safe to move up if I am a x%itm x%roi player single tabling, when is it possible to move up with a < 10% ROR, then you can just do the math.

My guess for the tens is that 20 buyins is easily enough, especially when single tabling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had originally thought 20 buyins was enough but reading most of the posts here discuss comfort level with 30X buyin so I reset my goal and standard. Glad to hear this from a poster like yourself.

Apathy

04-18-2005, 02:57 PM

Most arounf here are two conservative with small stakes BR's imo.

Once you start playing a little higher the variance multiplies, you should have 30 buyins for the 30s, and 50 for the 50s imo. Playing above that I think you should have close to 100 buyins if you are playing professinally. I take comfort in having a 300+ buyin bankroll for the 109s.

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
haven't read all the other replies... so sorry if i say something someone else has already...

if you're avg'ing 16 tourney's a week... you've prob got some sample size issues...

[/ QUOTE ]

Statistically, you are correct. I was venting about the timing of my OOTM finishes with relationship to move up in levels. With my rate of play, I will not be at 1000 SnG's until mid summer.

[ QUOTE ]
that being said though... if you're a decent player... then u have enough to take stabs at 10's if you want... they shouldn't be much dif. at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

I do consider myself a "decent" player and agree that I should probably already mix some $11's with what I am already doing. I have played a few $11's in the past and did well although the sample size is fractional. In the past 3 months I have focused on the $5.50's.

Degen

04-18-2005, 03:10 PM

cry me a river

plz no bad beat posts, i get enuff of those from my friends in the real world

Degen

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 03:12 PM

When & how much do you cash out with that roll while playing the 109s? Thanks ap

GtrHtr

04-18-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
cry me a river

plz no bad beat posts, i get enuff of those from my friends in the real world

Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I was going to break out my violin for you Degen. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

vindikation

04-18-2005, 03:50 PM

I agree with the Bonus Whoring to get your bankroll going. Basically the Party skins (Party, Empire, PokerNOW) and the Granny Paradise poker sign up are an easy way to get your bankroll up in less than a month.

Here's Homer's awesome thread: Building a bankroll (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1060198&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=1&vc=1)

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 04:07 PM

Yes, but which sites allow you to pay off your Bonus through SNGs?

adanthar

04-18-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Most arounf here are two conservative with small stakes BR's imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an understatement.

30 buyins for anything under $30 is about 10-15 too many, IMO.

vindikation

04-18-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but which sites allow you to pay off your Bonus through SNGs?

[/ QUOTE ]

None of the Party Skins (I suggest four tabling $25NL playing weak tight - you'll clear 100 hands an hour). Poker Stars and Poker Room allow for SnG's to clear the bonus...but it takes FOREVER. Poker Stars' bonuses don't expire so that's cool, but Poker Room's bonuses usually expire in 2-3 months I think.

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 04:35 PM

Yeah, basically why I am playing Full Tilt right now(the bonus quite fast I might ad), then plan on playing PS.

Apathy

04-18-2005, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When & how much do you cash out with that roll while playing the 109s? Thanks ap

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on a number of personal things. For me, I don't really need the money for anything so I only cash out when I'm over 100 buyins, back to 50 or so. But then I'm underolled for the SNG posters 2/4limit game /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif!!

For most people theres no reason to keep more then 20 buyins or so on site, as it is really easy to redeposit, and it lowers and possible remote risk that goes with having money on an online poker site.

TruFloridaGator

04-18-2005, 04:44 PM

What's your ROI, ITM at the 109s? Thanks!

Phil Van Sexton

04-18-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Most arounf here are two conservative with small stakes BR's imo.

Once you start playing a little higher the variance multiplies, you should have 30 buyins for the 30s, and 50 for the 50s imo. Playing above that I think you should have close to 100 buyins if you are playing professinally. I take comfort in having a 300+ buyin bankroll for the 109s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason we are conservative is that many of these players have never beaten ANY game. When they say, "I was running great....then got unlucky", I'm a bit concerned that they were "getting lucky then got unlucky" and aren't really beating the game at all. Regression to the mean.

I'm all for bonus whoring, but at some point you actually have to prove that you can beat a game.

Once most people beat the 10/1, they can quicky move up through the 20s and 30s. They KNOW what it takes to survive the swings and beat a game. Even someone who beat the 3/6 limit or 25NL over 50,000 hands should be given some leeway to move up quickly. They have proven they can win at poker and have experienced the swings.

When Apathy says that you need 30 or 50 buyins, it is assuming that you are a winning player at the lower level. This is the bankroll that a WINNING player needs to survive the swings.

Don't assume that you should move up just because you have the bankroll because you deposited it or bonus whored it. That being said, bonus whoring will get you a bankroll for the 10/1s faster than grinding it out at UltimateBet or PokerStars. Once you get the roll, beat the 10/1 at party over 500. If you find that you can't beat the party 10/1, there might be a problem.

adanthar

04-18-2005, 04:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The reason we are conservative is that many of these players have never beaten ANY game. When they say, "I was running great....then got unlucky", I'm a bit concerned that they were "getting lucky then got unlucky" and aren't really beating the game at all. Regression to the mean.

I'm all for bonus whoring, but at some point you actually have to prove that you can beat a game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy (http://creditcardpayoff.blogspot.com/) is apparently a winning player, or at least close, at low limit SNG's.

If you have found this site you're already three times better than he is.

Apathy

04-18-2005, 04:52 PM

Good pointg Phil, Of course everyone should remember a great line from the long lost FAQ.

"No Bankroll is big enough for a losing player"

And to answer truflorida's question about my itm and roi, I'm not relly sure why you want to know? Does it really matter? My Roi is currently 17.4% in the 109s, but I'm not sure how that knowledge is going to help you... plus I haven't even come close to playing 5k 109s. From asking around and observing play I estimate my true roi between 10-15% while 4 tabling.