Odds of getting HIV through unprotected sex?

[CostaRicaBill]

I have some friends who rarely ever use condoms and claim that it's nearly impossible for a man to contract HIV through vaginal intercourse. They say that women are much more likely to get it from a man, but men are not really at risk unless they have anal sex or share needles.

I know it's the doctor's duty to give the scary speach about all the diseases you can get through unprotected sex, but is the risk of getting HIV really that high? Does anyone actually know someone who has contracted HIV through normal heterosexual intercourse?

[[censored]]

get smarter friends.

[Jack of Arcades]

It's not that high, but you can catch other nasty [censored], too.

[Ianco15]

I know that it is harder for men to get HIV than women through sex, but it is by no means impossible.

[PoBoy321]

It's certainly harder for men to contract HIV, but you can still contract it through microscopic cuts on your penis. Tell your friends to wrap it up.

[ZeeJustin]

Are you asking how many women out there have HIV? If so, a simple google search can prolly answer that.

OR, are you asking what the chances of getting HIV are if you have unprotected sex w/ a women that has HIV? If you weren't asking this question for your friends, I would suggest you cut your penis off asap.

[college_boy]

I heard Dr. Drew say that HIV is primarily a homosexual disease in the United States, and is extremely difficult to contract. However, Africa's strand is easier to contract through vaginal intercourse.

[Tron]

[ QUOTE ]
I have some friends who rarely ever use condoms and claim that it's nearly impossible for a man to contract HIV through vaginal intercourse. They say that women are much more likely to get it from a man, but men are not really at risk unless they have anal sex or share needles.

I know it's the doctor's duty to give the scary speach about all the diseases you can get through unprotected sex, but is the risk of getting HIV really that high? Does anyone actually know someone who has contracted HIV through normal heterosexual intercourse?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to answer your question with another question: What the fvck does it matter?

There are plenty of reasons to use a condom anyway, i.e. herpes, gonorrhea, chlamidya, HPV, syphilis, hepatitis, and oh yeah, pregnancy.

[CostaRicaBill]

Yes, my question was that if the woman actually has HIV, what would be the chances of getting it through unprotected vaginal sex with her? I heard that during anal sex you are much more likely to get it through tiny cuts in your penis due to the rough surface.

That's interesting about the African strain being easier to contract sexually. I was wondering how it spread so quickly there being that intrevenous drug use probably isn't that widespread.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering how it spread so quickly there being that intrevenous drug use probably isn't that widespread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rape.

[PoBoy321]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, my question was that if the woman actually has HIV, what would be the chances of getting it through unprotected vaginal sex with her?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Don't have sex with women infected with HIV.

2) If the odds are 1,000,000 : 1, use a condom because it's not worth the risk.

[Jack of Arcades]

It's like playing the STD Lottery. Sure, realistically, you won't "win," but the utility of the prize makes it worth it.

[CostaRicaBill]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not asking for a pass to go have a bunch of unprotected sex, I was just wondering if the claims were accurate.

[ucfryan]

1 in 300 people are infected with HIV. Your friends are idiots.

[Yobz]

Your friends are fvcking morons and the reason we still have this disease. They should be shot.

[slickpoppa]

If the woman has HIV, then the probability of the man contracting HIV from having vaginal intercourse once is actually pretty low. I can't remember the exact number, but it is something on the order of 1/100. I couldn't find any confirmation on google, but I am sure that the number is low because I remember being surprised when I read it.

[InchoateHand]

Its definitely low, but sadly that didn't help my friend Mike.

[fnord_too]

Let me point something out that your not too bright friends have overlooked (or just don't care about, though if that is the case they are pretty much human waste):

IF any of them contracts aids, they will be spreading it to all those women they have unprotected sex with. So, even if it is a long shot, by the time they realize they have it, they could have infected a lot of women.

Do your friends have so little concept of risk versus reward? They sound like the type to keep 22% credit cards maxed out.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
1 in 300 people are infected with HIV. Your friends are idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree always wrap it.

but if the above claim is true, and its representative of the US population, and more specifically the circle of people with whom your friends have intercorse, then:

(1/300)*Pr(man contracting aids from unprotected sex from woman with HIV)*#sexual encounters=Pr(getting HIV given above info from unprotected sex)/#sexual encounter=Pr(HIV)/sexual encounter.

if we assume that 1in ever 20 times a man has sex with a woman w/ HIV that he will contract it then:

(1/300)*(1/20)=(1/6000)=.000167

if he has sex 5 times a week under the above conditions it will take 6000/5=120/52=2.31 years to contract aids on average.

-Barron

[InchoateHand]

Obviously the important assumption here is the "circle of people he has intercourse with."

The degree of self-selection implicit in having frequent, casual, unprotected sex put his partners in the top risk category of HIV. I would rather sleed with an IDU than someone who fit the above description, because there are plenty of "safe-ish" junkies.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously the important assumption here is the "circle of people he has intercourse with."

The degree of self-selection implicit in having frequent, casual, unprotected sex put his partners in the top risk category of HIV. I would rather sleed with an IDU than someone who fit the above description, because there are plenty of "safe-ish" junkies.

[/ QUOTE ]
which would explain my assumption...

-Barron

[LALDAAS]

Everyone should wrap it. End of story!

Have you ever had a urinary track infection, I did when I was 14. HOLY [censored]!

That was enough for me to wrap it up until I am married. I dont want to catch anything let alone the ninja.

I have been with my girl now 2 year, we have both been check and plan to be married. I still wrap it.

[PokerFink]

I believe I read it to be 3% for a man to get HIV from an infected women through vaginal sex.

This may seem low, but your friends are morons. There are lots of other things they can catch besides HIV

[partygirluk]

I seem to recall being taugh at school that the chances of getting HIV through vaginal sex was ~ 1/3 (depending on a variety of factors) and was higher was anal sex. Whatever, even a 1/1000 chance is high enough to use a condom. Your friends are being particularly irresponsible because they could already have HIV, in which case they could have given/give HIV/other diseases to previous/future partners. That is sickening. I'd consider getting new friends.

[peachy]

it is harder for a male vs a female to get it thru vaginal intercourse, then comes the females getting it thru vaginal intercourse, and then the most likely is anal - both male on male and male on female

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
They say that women are much more likely to get it from a man, but men are not really at risk unless they have anal sex or share needles.

[/ QUOTE ]

Herpes and other STD's greatly increase this the risk of contracting HIV.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone should wrap it. End of story!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, like 99% of the time (virgins / low # of partners whos partners also have low # + birth control, etc)

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Do your friends have so little concept of risk versus reward? They sound like the type to keep 22% credit cards maxed out.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the type that chase gutshots getting 3:1

[Duke]

I'm mainly going to comment on the other responses: they mostly suck.

Who cares if it's a "good idea" to wear a condom? That was not the question. It might be the smartest thing in the world, but it's not related to his question at all. He had a legit inquiry that I do not know the answer to, and he got absurd lectures on protected sex.

Nice work OOT.

Random guy: "If I try to cut my head off with a chainsaw, will I lose motor control before I'm dead?"

OOT: "It's a bad idea to cut your head off with a chainsaw! You fvcking moron! I hate you!"

Random guy: "Yeah, but I'm just curious because of reasons A, B, and C."

OOT: "You're stupid for even thinking about that. I'm superior to you because I never question the reasons behind anything, I just do exactly what my 5th grade teacher told me during the sex talk. I'm smart."

~D

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone should wrap it. End of story!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, like 99% of the time (virgins / people who have been tested for all STDs since their last partner + birth control)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.

[wacki]

The American Journal of Science and medicine did a report on the odds. However, I don't trust the numbers so I didn't mention it. If a post included any stat other then the number of heterosexuals in the US with HIV, I probably would of attacked it.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone should wrap it. End of story!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, like 99% of the time (virgins / people who have been tested for all STDs since their last partner + birth control)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I've had sex with two people. They were both virgins. I don't think I have AIDS.

But yeah, I get what you mean. In the real world, you don't know who your partners have slept with.

[CostaRicaBill]

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares if it's a "good idea" to wear a condom? That was not the question. It might be the smartest thing in the world, but it's not related to his question at all. He had a legit inquiry that I do not know the answer to, and he got absurd lectures on protected sex.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you Duke, It's not like I'm looking for a green light to start barebacking 3rd world prostitutes, I was just wondering what the real odds of contracting HIV would be from someone you KNOW has it. Yes, of course it would be stupid, but is it really as likely as your doctor or sex-ed counselor make it seem?

Also, I've always wondered, how do those guys from sites like cumfiesta not have anything after having unprotected sex with so many girls who obviously have a good deal of "experience." I suppose they're tested for everything before they start filming right?

[ElSapo]

I saw these stats in a paper several years ago - they don't seem to be widely publicized, I'm assuming because it looks like the chances are fairly slim (which, as everyone has said, it not the point, and to use a condom anyway).

That said, -ballpark figures-, I recall it being about 1-in-500 or something like this.

That could be grossly off, and so (a) I wouldn't quote it; (b) who cares, it's still scary. But if I recall correctly, the chances are far slimmer than you'd think.

Now I gotta go look for this again...

ElSapo

[bogey]

This is an argument I got into with my friends. I guess assume your a girl.

Do you have a higher chance of contracting HIV by having sex with Magic Johnson with a condom or by having sex with a random person without one??

[ChoicestHops]

Your friends are idiots. Dont worry though, I have alot of friends that are too. They have unprotected sex and think they will never catch anything. Even if that statement was true that it's almost impossible to get HIV through vaginal intercourse, ever think about the other STD's out there?

The chances of you contracting any STD really depends on the demographic. But why take your chances?

[ElSapo]

Note the date on this article -- it's more than five years old. I don't know how good or bad the data remains. However...

http://www.aegis.com/news/sc/1999/SC990801.html

"Earlier studies have found that women who have unprotected vaginal intercourse with an HIV-infected partner run a risk of infection of between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 2,000 each time they have sex."

[ChoicestHops]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a higher chance of contracting HIV by having sex with Magic Johnson with a condom or by having sex with a random person without one??

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd have to say you're safer with Johnson. Assuming you use a condom, your chances are 99-1. So statistically you could have sex with him 98 times and not get anything.

If you had sex randomly with 100 girls, I'd assume your chances cant be that great.

[fimbulwinter]

There have been about 0 substantive responses thus far.

quickly:

1. There is a very small chance that an unprotected man will get HIV from an HIV+ female. I've heard 1/300 from epidemiologists chance assuming no vaginal tearing (proper foreplay/lubrication)

2. There is a greater chance for a heterosexual female, but still very small on the whole; something like 3% from the last published data i read.

3. The reason it is such a heterosexual problem in africa is twofold: one that FGM causes it to spread quite easily by obvious means and two that many practices like intentional vaginal drying, no foreplay and ritualistic sex with wise men spread the disease much more quickly by upping both exposeure and likelyhood of necessary epidermal abrasions.

4. Anal sex is much more likely to facilitate these abrasions and homosexual men are much more likely to practice unprotected sex, so yes, in the US it is primarily a substance abuser/homosexual problem.

so yes, your friend is right, but he's still a fucking moron in that he's risking pregnancy and a wealth of highly transmittable, highly painful VD's, many of which will not become apparent to him until he realizes that he's suffering symptoms of long-term infection, which are quite bad indeed.

To the posters who made a peurile, knee-jerk reaction against the guy's friend's logic simply because it didn't ascribe to moder political correctness, you are lame. It sickens me when people like you have such strong opinions on things about which you have no idea. do us all a favor and never vote, think or speak again.

fim

ps- another sideeffect of your stupidity is the following: there is currently a huge anti-gay movement in middle america facilitated, in part, by the fact that people have been fed this myth of the heterosexual contracting AIDS. yes some do, but the danger has been way overblown and as a result those same people you all despise now have legitimate political and scientific ammo to shoot down future, correct, logical arguments you might make. good job.

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
There have been about 0 substantive responses thus far.


[/ QUOTE ]

It was posted in OOT.......

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
There have been about 0 substantive responses thus far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not at the hospital right now, so I don't have access to databases to search.
I tried using the CDC website at www.cdc.gov (http://www.cdc.gov) but I couldn't find anything useful after a fair amount of searching. If nobody has any good data, I'll try to dig up some tomorrow.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Note the date on this article -- it's more than five years old. I don't know how good or bad the data remains. However...

http://www.aegis.com/news/sc/1999/SC990801.html

"Earlier studies have found that women who have unprotected vaginal intercourse with an HIV-infected partner run a risk of infection of between 1 in 2,000 and 1 in 2,000 each time they have sex."

[/ QUOTE ]

These stats are way off. There are stats from reputable sources that say the odds of a man contracting HIV are 1:500 when having sex with a HIV+ person. I consider those stats to be misleading and optimistic. Still, I will agree, that if you do not have other STD's, and you do not have anal sex, HIV is a difficult disease to contract via sex. I will not post my own stats for a multitude of reasons.

But here is a website that you can trust.
http://www.niaid.nih.gov/factsheets/aidsstat.htm

If you think you can have sex with a HIV+ person 2,000 times before getting HIV, you are simply out of touch with reality. Think about how much the average person has sex, then think about the fact that worldwide, approximately 11 of every 1000 adults aged 15 to 49 are HIV-infected.

I'm sorry, people just aren't having that much sex (without using a condom) with random strangers to make those stats true. If they were, ThaSaltCracka would be making porn movies.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
how do those guys from sites like cumfiesta not have anything after having unprotected sex with so many girls who obviously have a good deal of "experience."

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you so sure they don't?

[Alobar]

It is true that its much harder for a man to get HIV through vaginal intercourse than it is a female, but it still happens. But there are tons of other [censored] you can get from unportected sex, that would royallu suck (i.e. anything that doesnt wash off, heh). Its clearly -EV

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]

These stats are way off. There are stats from reputable sources that say the odds of a man contracting HIV are 1:500 when having sex with a HIV+ person. I consider those stats to be misleading and optimistic. Still, I will agree, that if you do not have other STD's, and you do not have anal sex, HIV is a difficult disease to contract via sex. I will not post my own stats for a multitude of reasons.


[/ QUOTE ]

What reason could you possibly have for witholding what you believe to be accurate scientific facts?

I never claimed my facts were accurate -- but as near as I can tell, what I posted was the closest documented answer to the OP's question.

[wacki]

If you are remotely familiar with the scientific method, you will be well aware of the importance of double blind experiments. You can't have a double blind experiment in this situation.

If you are remotely familiar with statistics, you will be well aware of their tendency to be used very poorly.

It doesn't take a math major to realize the stats by that paper are way off.

Everyone on this forum knows I am a scientist. Very few people on this forum have the educational background to challenge me on what I say when it comes to science. Therefore, I feel as if I am obligated to hold my science related statements up to high standards. This is not true with many other subjects.

This also involves life or death situations. Even more reason to hold my standards up to the highest degree. If you want stats on this subject, try to find a paper in a peer review journal. Use pubmed to search. I do not have the time, nor the will, to do the proper amount of research needed on this subject. Also, I think you simply can't tell as there are so many confounding factors (lying, STDs, exaggeration, poor memory, ignorance of infection of other STD's, denial of other STD's, subtlety of other STD's, latency of detection, multiple HIV infections only counted once, poor quality of HIV testing (blots vs. PCR), data snooping, etc) that play strong roles in these studies and are often neglected.

To be honest, I haven't seen a study that was able to properly account for all of these factors.

Basically, these kind of stats are poor estimates at best.

Is that fair enough?

[TStoneMBD]

so what are you saying wacki, that the 1/300 figure might really be more like 1/100 or 1/600? or are you saying that the 1/300 figure might really be more like 1/30?

[pokerjo22]

[ QUOTE ]
Random guy: "If I try to cut my head off with a chainsaw, will I lose motor control before I'm dead?"


[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Duke, I'd just like to confirm for you that if you cut off your head with a chainsaw, before you are dead you will be unable to move your arms and legs etc. but should still be able to move your facial muscles, tongue and eyes. Hope this helps.

[CORed]

There have been several hypotheses put forward as to why there is more heterosexual AIDS transmission in some places than others. Female to male transmission is definitely the weak link. Some researchers have suggested that circumcision is a factor. Apparently, there is a fairly strong correlation between the percentage of uncircusised males and the rate of heterosexual AIDS transmission. Other factors may be higher incidence of other STD's in Africa. Anything that causes an open sore on your penis increases the risk, obviously.

If you are having sex other than in a comitted, monogamous relationship, using a condom just makes sense. Your risk of catching HIV is pretty low, but your risk of getting chlamydia, gonorhea, syphylis, herpes, etc. is much higher, and your risk of getting her pregnant higher still. Even if she says she's on the pill, she could be lying. Guess what: You still have to pay child support.

[PapaSan]

Don't worry Billy just cause u got hiv doesnt mean u will get full blown aids.

[CostaRicaBill]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry Billy just cause u got hiv doesnt mean u will get full blown aids.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh ok, great, now I'm not worried anymore.

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been with my girl now 2 year, we have both been check and plan to be married. I still wrap it.

[/ QUOTE ]

-PV

NT

[Skipbidder]

Archives of Internal Medicine, January 2004
These are estimates from the paper (which actually focuses on cost-effectiveness of post-exposure treatment prophylaxis).

With a known postive partner, chance of transmission via:

unprotected receptive anal sex, 2%
unprotected receptive vaginal sex, 0.1%
unprotected insertive anal or vaginal sex 0.06% (this one surprised me, that there wasn't a difference)
receptive oral fellatio, 0.04%

The chances of a partner being positive of course varies considerably according to risk factors.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
so what are you saying wacki, that the 1/300 figure might really be more like 1/100 or 1/600? or are you saying that the 1/300 figure might really be more like 1/30?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying there are way to many confounding factors for me to attempt to say 1/30 or 1/500. There are many cases where someone had sex with an HIV+ once and got it (And I've met/talked to dozens of people that claim this), there are also many cases that someone had sex with an HIV+ for years and never got it. With the latency period of HIV detection, I simply think it's too difficult to give a reasonably accurate approximation.

Whether it's 1/30 or 1/300 or 1/500, I don't know. Another factor that many studies don't take into account is the various strains. There are many people that seem to be resistant to many strains, there are other strains that seem to be much more contagious then others. Still, I don't know enough to go into detail about those stats. 1/500 is on the far end of my optimism. If you believe the 1/2,000 statistics, you should see the HIV projections on the NIH website. HIV is projected to become histories worst epidemic well within our lifetime. It's supposed to be even worse then the flu and the black plague. If those projections are correct, then how the hell could the 1/2,00 0 be correct? I honestly think we will be able to combat HIV in America before it gets that bad though.

Almost all statistical methods use mathematical methods that require assumptions. Many of the statistical analysis employed by staticians working for pharmaceutical companies, politicians, and newspapers have assumptions that are beyond pathetic. A very well known pharmaceutical company in the US has well over 200 full time staticians but still has to hire university professors for counseling on a routine basis because their entire staff can't get the job right. I could go into much more detail about this, but I don't have the time. Very busy right now....

Here is a neat tidbit:

The inner surface of the foreskin -- but not any other outside part of the penis -- is rich in a type of cell that carries HIV directly to the T cells, the cells in which the virus replicates itself. There are currently 37 studies that show a huge difference risk of contracting for these two people.

Now, knowing that fact alone, do you think it's proper to include circumcised and noncircumcised people in the same risk group when giving the odds? Very few studies take this factor into account. In fact this info is almost totally ignored.

What about people with herpes and other STDs?

What about various strains of HIV?

What about different races of people? There is tons of evidence that blacks/Hispanics/whites contract at different rates.

What I'm saying is you can't simplify it into one single number. There is just way too much variance among people/strains/conditions. I'm also saying there isn't enough information right now to make a solid guess. Still, things look very good for circumcised males without any other STDs. (I have no problem accepting 1/500 here) They also look very bad for .... well you know the rest.

I need a nap

The very tired,

wacki

[Riskwise]

i dont wanna come off like im making fun of your friend or anything, but your friend is [censored] retarded.

[wacki]

Interesting information about a lot of this statistical crap:

http://www.sciencenews.org/pages/sn_arc97/6_7_97/bob1.htm

"The shared secret of psychological researchers is that we don't take our own data too seriously when reaching theoretical judgments," contends John E. Richters, head of the disruptive disorders program at
the National Institute of Mental Health in Rockville, Md.

"Even the brightest people use empirical research mainly to keep their careers going. When I talk to them in private, they express much more sophisticated views about mental functioning than what you see in their published reports."

Like I said, a lot of papers that flaunt statistics are basically being used as opium for the feeble minded.

[AffleckKGB]

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone actually know someone who has contracted HIV through normal heterosexual intercourse?


[/ QUOTE ]

Since nobody has answered this question, I'll assume it's no. I've never even heard of anyone in America who contracted HIV this way, (be careful of citing Magic),and yet hetero guys still fear it more than driving home drunk.

[BusterStacks]

I don't wear condoms.

I have had lots of sex with many partners.

That is all.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone actually know someone who has contracted HIV through normal heterosexual intercourse?


[/ QUOTE ]

Since nobody has answered this question, I'll assume it's no. I've never even heard of anyone in America who contracted HIV this way, (be careful of citing Magic),and yet hetero guys still fear it more than driving home drunk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take it you completely skipped my posts and InchoateHands.

[slickpoppa]

Having sex with a virgin cures AIDS anyways

[wacki]

I'm not sure what to make of that post.

Unless you are in the porn business with lots of tested partners, you are smarter then that Buster.

As for slickpoppa's

Having sex with a virgin cures AIDS anyways

There are studies that suggest sleeping with other HIV+ people might bolster your immune system by triggering antibody production. There is a group of prostitutes in Africa that seem to be naturally immune and many think this is the reason why. However, the topic is still up for debate.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
There are studies that suggest sleeping with other HIV+ people might bolster your immune system by triggering antibody production. There is a group of prostitutes in Africa that seem to be naturally immune and many think this is the reason why. However, the topic is still up for debate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats pretty wild.

If that is true, coulden't that potentially lead to a cure for aids somehow?

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have to say you're safer with Johnson. Assuming you use a condom, your chances are 99-1. So statistically you could have sex with him 98 times and not get anything.


[/ QUOTE ]

And they say the Japanese are better at educating their children in mathematics..... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
If that is true, coulden't that potentially lead to a cure for aids somehow?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and the mechanisms that cause those prostitutes to be naturally immune are being studied heavily.