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View Full Version : $33 bubble hand, 3 short stacks, 36o in the BB

UncleRemus
04-17-2005, 10:47 PM
Haven't posted much of anything here in quite a while, but this hand that came up last night really gave me quite a bit of trouble. Didn't have much time to think about it before being forced into action, but have put more thought into it since. I will post some thoughts after recieving a few responses...

$33 SNG, 200/400 blinds (7 hands left at this level)

UTG (380)
Button (6300)
SB (680)
Hero(BB) (640)

Hero holds 36o

UTG pushes, Button Folds, SB pushes, Hero ?
Shilly
04-17-2005, 10:57 PM
Maybe I'm oversimplifying this, but this looks like a clear fold to me...
microbet
04-17-2005, 11:38 PM
I'd guess SB has the better hand. If you fold you are, say, 60% to get ITM, but that 60% of the time you are all but guaranteed 3rd.

If you call and SB wins you still get 3rd place.

If you call and UTG wins you still have a decent shot at 3rd by winning the side pot.

If you call and win, you are all but guaranteed 2nd place with some shot at 1st.

If you fold and UTG wins, you will be in the worst position, but still a fair shot at 3rd.

I like calling. I don't think it makes your chances of getting ITM much worse and it gives you a chance of finishing higher than 3rd.
TT_fold
04-17-2005, 11:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Haven't posted much of anything here in quite a while, but this hand that came up last night really gave me quite a bit of trouble. Didn't have much time to think about it before being forced into action, but have put more thought into it since. I will post some thoughts after recieving a few responses...

$33 SNG, 200/400 blinds (7 hands left at this level)

UTG (380)
Button (6300)
SB (680)
Hero(BB) (640)

Hero holds 36o

UTG pushes, Button Folds, SB pushes, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here it's a call because if the SB wins, you get 3rd. Change the hand to:

$33 SNG, 200/400 blinds (7 hands left at this level)

UTG (410)
Button (6300)
SB (889)
Hero(BB) (401)

Hero holds 36o

UTG pushes, Button Folds, SB pushes, Hero ?


... and it's a fold IMO. I'll run some ICM calculations in a little while to see if I'm anywhere near right.