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View Full Version : Discrepancy in AleoMagus' Confidence


XChamp
04-17-2005, 10:18 PM
So I have been fiddling around with some stats and I decided I wanted to check out my confidence interval for my last 350 tournies.

So I dug up this post (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1373360 &fpart=&PHPSESSID=) by AleoMagus and followed his directions to a T. I found that I have an 89.5% confidence that my true win rate is positive. Ok, great.

But then I found this confidence calculator (http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet/confidence%20calculator.xls), which is also done by AleoMagus. So, I entered in my stats only to find that it gives a 98.3% confidence that my true winrate is positive.

Relevant stats would be:

total number of tournies: 339 $55 Party Sit and Goes.

1sts: 36
2nds: 55
3rds: 48



What gives?

XChamp
04-18-2005, 02:04 AM
I figured out what was wrong. I had stupidly not changed my confidence range to +/- winrate.