Who will win the AL East division?

[Dead]

Who will win the AL East division?

Vote now.

[istewart]

The Yankees.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unsurprisingly, I agree.

[Ianco15]

Why are there choices other than the Redsox and Yankees?

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't turn this into a flame war. I'm begging you. I gave you the odds and I want people to vote in this poll. As many as possible.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
The Red Sox.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

4-1 says the Yanks don't win the division. Care to wager?

[Voltron87]

[censored] it, I'm not talking about this anymore. You all (and I mean all of you, not just jesuswhatnot, those talking about bets) are severely retarded.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees.

[/ QUOTE ]

4-1 says the Yanks don't win the division. Care to wager?

[/ QUOTE ]

Might want to re-word that.

Right now you are offering someone the same deal I offered you.

[[censored]]

Yes.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] it, I'm not talking about this anymore. You all (and I mean all of you, not just jesuswhatnot, those talking about bets) are severely retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

You needed to make a brand new post to tell us you're done talking? You must be important, and perhaps lacking in a sense of irony.

[Vince Young]

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[ QUOTE ]
The Red Sox.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ThaSaltCracka]

I think it is awesome that Baltimore is in 1st right now.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is awesome that Baltimore is in 1st right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BigD226]

[ QUOTE ]
Who will win the AL East division?

Vote now.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://adweek.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/redsox.jpg

[Edge34]

I think the Sox will win the division, but I would love nothing more than to see Baltimore win it. One of my two favorite teams outside of the Twinkies (the other being the Miracle Mets).

[BigD226]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Sox will win the division, but I would love nothing more than to see Baltimore win it. One of my two favorite teams outside of the Twinkies (the other being the Miracle Mets).

[/ QUOTE ]

The Mets have been fun to watch the last few days...I was expecting another 8th inning comeback today.

[Dynasty]

Here's a good sign from saturday's Yankees - Orioles game.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/04/17/sports/17yanks583.jpg

[ThaSaltCracka]

thats funny.

[andyfox]

Great picture.

BTW, Ruben Sierra is not a small man. If he and Randy Johnson are on the same step in the dugout, it's another way of realizing just how tall Johnson is.

[Tyler Durden]

Excellent sign. I'm an O's fan and Mussina was one of my favorites but F him, tho I can't really blame him since Peter Angelos didn't want to pay. Even still, F him.

What does the last line say, I can't read it. thanks.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]


What does the last line say, I can't read it. thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

How's the ring fit?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
What does the last line say, I can't read it. thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

How's the ring fit?

[Edge34]

"How's the ring fit?"

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
"How's the ring fit?"

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[sublime]

boston or ny

whichever team stays healthier. if both teams suffer seriosu injurys than the O's have a slight chance.

this is the only right answer btw.

[DougOzzzz]

Clearly anyone who thinks the Yankees are STILL >80% to win the AL East lacks intelligence.

The Yankees had an O/U of 100 wins this year - that means they were expected to win 61.7% of their games. A 61.7% winning team will go 4-8 or worse about 4.4% of the time. That percentage doubles to 8.7% if you assume they are a true 57% (92 win) team. It triples to 13% if assume they are an 87 win team.

I'm not sure how this affects the odds of being a 100 win/92 win/87 win team, but clearly there's a much better chance the Yankees are WORSE than a 100 win team now than there was at the start of the season. They've already won 3.4 games fewer than they should have. So at the most the O/U on wins should be 96.5 now - but in reality it probably should be more like 93.

Meanwhile, the Sox had an O/U of 95 or so, and they're 7-5, which is only .04 wins fewer than a 95 team should have at this point.

Conclusion - based on the limited sample we have so far, it's clear the odds of winning the division have changed alot since the start of the season. At the very least, the Sox closed the gap from a perceived 5.5 game difference to just over 2 games. And to top it all off, the Yankees haven't even been unlucky so far. Their pythagorean record is actually WORSE than 4-8.

[sublime]

doug-

your making sense. which means you have no business posting in this thread.

[Lazymeatball]

your stats assume that every game is equal. and we all know that a series at home against the D-Rays is not the same as a series on the road against the O's. Therefore your logic is flawed. Btw I'm a Boston fan who picked NY to win the division.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
your stats assume that every game is equal. and we all know that a series at home against the D-Rays is not the same as a series on the road against the O's. Therefore your logic is flawed. Btw I'm a Boston fan who picked NY to win the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about to say that too. Wins and losses are clearly not normally distributed.

On a related note, the Timberwolves now have a 0% chance of making the playoffs.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Timberwolves now have a 0% chance of making the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most disappointing season ever.

[Victor]

i suggest u do not pursue a career as a bookmaker

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
your stats assume that every game is equal. and we all know that a series at home against the D-Rays is not the same as a series on the road against the O's. Therefore your logic is flawed. Btw I'm a Boston fan who picked NY to win the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not far off. Yeah, definitely not perfect. Playing Boston 6 times has had an effect. But nevertheless, there's still a MUCH greater chance of a true 57% team going 4-8 than a true 62% team.

The O's are an average team though, and the Yanks played 3 games at home against them too. They were favored to win in 5 out of the 6 games against Boston, and probably should have been near 60% against them based on the lines alone.

If I really wanted to, I could throw together some estimates on the probabilities of winning each game given they are a X-win team, and then calculate the likelihood of each possible record up until this point - but that's asking alot.

Bottom line - you can't ignore the first 12 games. I never claimed my analysis was perfect, but the general idea still holds up. I was pretty conservative in the first place. I stand by my conclusion that the Yankees odds to win the division should be significantly lower than they were at the start of the season.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your stats assume that every game is equal. and we all know that a series at home against the D-Rays is not the same as a series on the road against the O's. Therefore your logic is flawed. Btw I'm a Boston fan who picked NY to win the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not far off. Yeah, definitely not perfect. Playing Boston 6 times has had an effect. But nevertheless, there's still a MUCH greater chance of a true 57% team going 4-8 than a true 62% team.

The O's are an average team though, and the Yanks played 3 games at home against them too. They were favored to win in 5 out of the 6 games against Boston, and probably should have been near 60% against them based on the lines alone.

If I really wanted to, I could throw together some estimates on the probabilities of winning each game given they are a X-win team, and then calculate the likelihood of each possible record up until this point - but that's asking alot.

Bottom line - you can't ignore the first 12 games. I never claimed my analysis was perfect, but the general idea still holds up. I was pretty conservative in the first place. I stand by my conclusion that the Yankees odds to win the division should be significantly lower than they were at the start of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are crazy. The Yankees cannot lose. They cannot lose because they have Jeter. Jeter is clutch. Jeter hates pants. Even if Boston finishes 5 games ahead of the Yankees, Jeter will just will another 6 wins into the Yankees' win column. Then Jeter and the Yanks will be champs. Jeter has the heart to do it.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your stats assume that every game is equal. and we all know that a series at home against the D-Rays is not the same as a series on the road against the O's. Therefore your logic is flawed. Btw I'm a Boston fan who picked NY to win the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not far off. Yeah, definitely not perfect. Playing Boston 6 times has had an effect. But nevertheless, there's still a MUCH greater chance of a true 57% team going 4-8 than a true 62% team.

The O's are an average team though, and the Yanks played 3 games at home against them too. They were favored to win in 5 out of the 6 games against Boston, and probably should have been near 60% against them based on the lines alone.

If I really wanted to, I could throw together some estimates on the probabilities of winning each game given they are a X-win team, and then calculate the likelihood of each possible record up until this point - but that's asking alot.

Bottom line - you can't ignore the first 12 games. I never claimed my analysis was perfect, but the general idea still holds up. I was pretty conservative in the first place. I stand by my conclusion that the Yankees odds to win the division should be significantly lower than they were at the start of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are crazy. The Yankees cannot lose. They cannot lose because they have Jeter. Jeter is clutch. Jeter hates pants. Even if Boston finishes 5 games ahead of the Yankees, Jeter will just will another 6 wins into the Yankees' win column. Then Jeter and the Yanks will be champs. Jeter has the heart to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

this can only be funny so many times, I think it's reached it though. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Dead]

I'm sorry. Are you guys dissing the Moose?

Don't you know that he is my favorite player in major league history?

It's not Mikey's fault that Peter Angelos's purse strings are tighter than a nun's c**t.

Btw, Moose pitched well on Saturday. 5 and 2/3 IP, 2 ER. He still has it. Blame the bullpen(Gordon) for blowing that lead.

[J.R.]

http://sc.groups.msn.com/tn/38/50/BaltimoreOrioles/4/c.jpg

[ErrantNight]

i don't think the o's have a slight chance to win the division...

[Uston]

Here's a better angle...

Mussina (http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/images/I60027-2005Apr17L)

[Tboner7]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think the o's have a slight chance to win the division...

[/ QUOTE ]

They have to have at least a slight chance. They might not be as good as they have been playing, but with an offense that good, you should always be in the game, and that's all you can ask for.