Hand that knocked me out #1

[EasilyFound]

I'd like to post hands in which I got out of a tourney and get some feedback about how I played the hand at each stage. Here there is only one stage, but other hands will have more than preflop.

My thinking at the time was that he had overcards and would lay down his hand. I had played very few hands and thought that a tight table image might increase the likelihood of a laydown, and that I was likely ahead if I had to play it out. As it turned out, I might have had more success by just calling and making a strong bet after the flop.

Here's the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t525)
CO (t3955)
Button (t1380)
Hero (t710)
BB (t720)
UTG (t710)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t125</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t710 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t585.

Flop: (t1450) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1450) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1450) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1450

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 3d 3h (one pair, threes).
Button has Jh Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Button wins t1450. </font>

[Phill S]

oh man, i gotta get back to party from stars if even 2+2 players are pushing with 33 in level 2.

Phill

[Cry Me A River]

Fold PF.

Then pick the cards back up and fold them again.

This is low buy in, I assume? Never, ever, expect anyone to fold pf early in an SNG after raising pf unless you have a very specific read that they will. Haven't you noticed all the yahoos calling PF all-ins with A6 and 44?

If this is at a higher level, villain probably already has a note on you that says **LAG** so he's never folding anything he'd raise with this early, even if it was a steal.

This is way, way, way too early to be showing this much aggression with such a marginal holding.

[gasgod]

Villain fires t125 into a t45 pot and you go to war with 33. Risk: t695 Reward: t170

GG

[EasilyFound]

what is **LAG**?

Never mind. Loose Aggressive. Got it.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
what is **LAG**?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

you're joking, right?

[Allinlife]

Loose Aggresive Player

33 is too weak to push here.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
you're joking, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm not, as a matter of fact.

[swarm]

Well you deserved to get knocked out on this hand. Why would you go all in with 33 after a big raise? At best you are looking at a coin flip... at best????

I've seen this trend a lot lately by the fish. Yes every once in awhile they win a big pot with 44 but they are not going to win at a consistent rate. Your stack is healthy, why risk it now?

This is a complete fish move.

At least run a stop and go with this hand where you push on a flop without any J or better...

[Komodo]

"My thinking at the time was that he had overcards and would lay down his hand. I had played very few hands and thought that a tight table image might increase the likelihood of a laydown, and that I was likely ahead if I had to play it out. As it turned out, I might have had more success by just calling and making a strong bet after the flop."


I think this is in general the best way to play small pockets versus two overcards. He will miss 70% of the time, after which you can take the pot.
Bye the way, what would you do here with AJ?

[bigdarren]

You say that you had only played a few hands...

It was level 2 right?

play fewer.

[Poisson7]

Out of curiosity, what is the min hand people would make this move on? JJ and QQ (since he probably doesn't have KK or AA with such a big raise)? What about TT? I guess with any of those holdings I'd just call the bet and fire if there were no A on the flop. What do others think?

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
Bye the way, what would you do here with AJ?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what you mean. If I had AJ instead of 33 or if I was my opponent playing AJ to an all-in raise from the SB?

[The Yugoslavian]

This is a joke post, right?

Yugoslav

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a joke post, right?

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I'm serious and trying to learn from my mistakes. That's all.

[EdgePort]

As said by others, I fold here.. I fold here 100% of the time at this blind level.

[fl0w]

I'd fold. It's too early for pushing with baby pairs. Especially when you're not the shortstack.

[EasilyFound]

I'm not going to dispute these critiques. I can't. But did my opponent make a correct of my all-in w/AJ there? Shouldn't he have laid down that hand?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to dispute these critiques. I can't. But did my opponent make a correct of my all-in w/AJ there? Shouldn't he have laid down that hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not he *should have* isn't important (at all really). What's important is what the monkeys do at the buyin you're playing after raising such a substantial amount.

Also, I can't think of any hand the villian would play that you're really a substantial favorite against here. I understand you feel that you *should* have FE here....but you don't have nearly enough to warrant even *considering* pushing (again, this does depend on level and specific opponent I'd imagine...but..meh).

Yugoslav

[EdgePort]

I don't call in his/her position, but I would expect a lot of people playing at the 11s to call. I would think that you would have the same expectation.. Can you answer the following questions for me

What hands did you put him on when you raised?

Of those hands, which hands did you expect him/her to fold to your all-in?

How many of those hands have you dominated?

Are you dominating any of them?

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
What's important is what the monkeys do at the buyin you're playing after raising such a substantial amount.


[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean that there is a buy-in level where this play would actually work? Or is this just a dumb play no matter what level buy-in?

[ QUOTE ]
What hands did you put him on when you raised?


[/ QUOTE ]

Answer in the original post. I put him on two overcards and thought there was a good chance he'd lay it down. If not, I had a slight edge. That was the thinking (or non-thinking, if you like).

[EdgePort]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands did you put him on when you raised?


[/ QUOTE ]

Answer in the original post. I put him on two overcards and thought there was a good chance he'd lay it down. If not, I had a slight edge. That was the thinking (or non-thinking, if you like).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the bold above tells you why you shouldn't risk your stack this early. You are probably going to get better spots to get your chips in the middle.

Doubling up by no means ensures you are in the money, but a loss ensures you are out of the money. Is that worth a 2% advantage if you are correct on his overcards, and him having a 4:1 advantage if he has any overpair.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that worth a 2% advantage if you are correct on his overcards, and him having a 4:1 advantage if he has any overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

All I can say is that it seemed like a good plan at the time. Lol. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Voltron87]

MORE RESULTS ORIENTED THINKING PLEASE!!

[Komodo]

"if I was my opponent playing AJ to an all-in raise from the SB?"

Exactly that I meant.

[willie]

i'm sure everyone else responded the same way.

fold preflop.

edit-

you put him on overcards----good read.


cause if he has any pocket pair and calls here you're smoked.

it's just not worth it at this blind level to tangle with 33. I might limp here if it's limped to me and try to stack someone if i catch a 3 on the flop- if it's raised though- i'm not even messing around.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
"if I was my opponent playing AJ to an all-in raise from the SB?"

Exactly that I meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. Is there another way to view it?

[Komodo]

I dont really mind heros play unless someone can prove via some risk-reward formula that it is wrong to take this 53-47% coinflip. Also, a push migth be a way to fight back against a player who is bullying around a bit much.
If hero had won it, he had been in a comfortable second place.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont really mind heros play unless someone can prove via some risk-reward formula that it is wrong to take this 53-47% coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's VERY early and taking second isn't even close to sewn up if you win this race.

the trouble is that this raise to most people means a much bigger hand than aj- but in this case it was ace jack.

more likely hands? TT-AA, AK/aq

do you really want to gamble for your whole stack this early that he doesn't have an overpair that he wants to go to war with?

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

I dont really mind heros play unless someone can prove via some risk-reward formula that it is wrong to take this 53-47% coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

OP said nothing about villain being a LAG, bullying or raising with any 2 - Though really, holding 33, villain might as well hold T7 instead of AJ.

First, this not a steal, it's level 2. Who steals on level 2? This is a "I like my hand and want to build the pot or take it now" raise. This is an 11+1, random villain is calling at least 90% of the time here.

So 10% of the time hero wins T170.

Of that other 90%, villain shows a better pp probably 50% of the time. Hero is knocked out 80% of the time villain shows a better PP. Hero doubles up 20% of the time.

The rest of the time, villain shows 2 overcards. Best case scenario, they're not suited and hero doubles up 53% of the time while being knocked out 47% of the time.

So, if I've done the math right and made reasonable assumptions,

Hero:

Gains T170 10% of the time
Doubles up 33% of the time
Is knocked out 57% of the time

If there's an edged there, I sure don't see it.

Even if we credit his read of overcards to being correct 75% of the time, it's still horrible:

Gains T170 10% of the time
Doubles up 40% of the time
Is knocked out 50% of the time

The 10+1's are so beatable there is absolutely no reason you need to take this kind of risk with such a healthy stack so early in an SNG.

[john_]

Move up in buy-in and find me sitting down at a table. Wait till I raise then re-raise me all in. Repeat as needed...

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

Does that mean that there is a buy-in level where this play would actually work?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's an even worse idea at higher levels. At a higher buy-in, villains will, on average, be tighter which means the cards he is raising with will usually be better so he's more likely to be holding something he'll be willing to call with. And when he calls, he's more likely to be holding a better PP.

Higher buy-in Villain will be more likely to fold AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/Mid-PP*, however that is offset with the strength of his cards when he does call - You will get called less often, but when you ARE called you will loose much more often. (So you might take the T170 20% of the time, but you're busting out 65% of the time and only double up 15% of the time).

*But again, if you make these kinds of plays regularly and villain has a read on you as a LAG, he's a lot less likely to fold anything half-decent.

[ QUOTE ]

Or is this just a dumb play no matter what level buy-in?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[EasilyFound]

Okay. This is all good. I appreciate everyone's views and the time that you took to reply. Thanks a bunch.

Truth be told, I had just finished a home tourney. I never caught any cards and got desperate, and nothing worked out. I felt like I was too passive. When I came home, I decided to play a couple of on-line tourneys. Well, I wasn't passive here. Guess I was tilting. I am usually much more patient. Will post some other hands and I hope people will be equally generous with their opinions and their time.

[Komodo]

Nice analyses. They look correct. I get about the same figures from pokerstove.

My comment on bullying was based on only 5 players left (10 at the start?) already at level 2, so surely there had been a lot of fireworks at that table.

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

My comment on bullying was based on only 5 players left (10 at the start?) already at level 2, so surely there had been a lot of fireworks at that table.


[/ QUOTE ]

6 players left. Villain has won a pot, at least (T1380), however it's CO with the huge stack (level 1 multi all-in?).

At any rate, I think it's pretty dangerous to make assumptions about Villain's aggression based solely on stack sizes - How they got that way is kinda significant...

[sng-sam]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold PF.

Then pick the cards back up and fold them again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Classic! and....I concur!