Same board on 4th, draw vs. ???

[Bartholow]

My 3rd street call was a little loose hehe. The table was playing very loose, which is not really a good defense.

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 2: xx xx A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 3: xx xx T/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Hero: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___brings-in
Seat 7: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds

4th Street

Seat 1: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets___raises___calls
Hero: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___raises___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds

5th Street

Seat 1: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Hero: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls

6th Street

Seat 1: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets
Hero: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls

River

Seat 1: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif xx___checks
Hero: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets

[Roland]

Maybe kings in the hole and no improvement?
Also, why did you cap on 4th? I'm afraid I don't get it

[RandomUser]

I'd guess 2 pairs 8s and 9s or maybe 3 9s.

Most people wouldn't cap a big pocket pair and still bet all the way to 6th street unimproved with the resistance you gave him on 4th. While your first raise might suggest a draw, when you cap it, I'd think you had something other than a draw.

When you don't raise after 4th street, though, I would start putting you back on a draw or maybe a big pocket pair.

[BeerMoney]

"Maybe kings in the hole and no improvement?
Also, why did you cap on 4th? I'm afraid I don't get it ."

Here is the twodimes sim:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s jd th 8d 9h - ks kd 8s 9d / ah ts 6c 2d ac qs
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jd 8d Th 9h 254851 50.97 244829 48.97 320 0.06 0.510
Ks 8s Kd 9d 244829 48.97 254851 50.97 320 0.06 0.490


The "draw" here is actually a slight favorite. And, tts kind of hard to put his opponent on a better hand, as the 8's and 9's are both dead.

I think continuing with the aggression on 4th also may buy a free card on fifth or sumpin.

[TheShootah]

Yeah, I think raising on 4 is ok too, although by the looks of it, this guy wanted no part of a free card for you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Bartholow]

BeerMoney got part of the answer, because I'm actually a slight favorite vs pretty much anything but trips. However, I didn't really even put my opponent on a pair with his limp on 3rd. The game was playing loose enough that a decent player would probably try to thin the field a bit if they held a pair, and would also rather raise a big hidden pair in order to then 3-bet rather than go for the limp-reraise. Or at least that's what I thought /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

So I basically put him on some sort of draw as well, and figured that a)mine was probably at least as good as his b) it would be easier to make him lay down if he missed but made a pair if I played the hand aggressively.

I'll still wait a while before posting the results.

[Bartholow]

Oops, I'm also not a favorite vs two pair. But this seemed particularly unlikely (as did the trips), for obvious reasons.

[Bartholow]

Opponent had two pair, tens and nines. Looks like on 3rd he started with T98, and paired the 9 on 4th.

[Andy B]

I like the way you played this hand. The call on third was fine given your late position.