I flopped a straight on a scary board - now what?

[bkm]

So, I've flopped a straight with an all diamond flop and a pot of only t60. SO, what do you do?

$20+2 Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t860)
CO (t785)
Button (t775)
Hero (t785)
BB (t800)
UTG (t785)
UTG+1 (t770)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t1640)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t15, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

[boondockst]

i know you hate to hear this...but completing with crap like this, while only being 5 more chips is probably -EV...i think you'd be playing for this flop as a rainbow or a 5-7-7 flop more than anything...

[Freudian]

Bet pot and see what the others will do. If I get one caller I do the same on turn. If I get two I slow down a bit.

[Phil Van Sexton]

For some reason I always play these hands like nobody has the flush. Call me an optimist.

Go ahead and bet the pot. If raised, push. A raise is often a flush draw looking for a free card.

Bet pot again on turn and hope for the best.

[gasgod]

There is at least a 10% chance somebody already has a flush. If you make the assumption that anybody with two diamonds would have called, the chance is significantly better. Note that all the high diamonds are missing, meaning that many of the suited starting hands would be calling. (Ad-Xd, Kd-Td, Qd-Td, Jd-Td, etc.) I would estimate that at least 12% of the time, you are already beaten.

There is a 72.5% chance that at least one of the active players has a diamond. This means that to play your straight, you will have to raise to spoil their drawing odds. And even then, you may not be able to drive them out, because they may have paired up on the flop.

If you play the straight, it has to be for the implied odds, since t60 is not worth risking your entire stack. But where are you going to get callers? Anybody without a flush is going to be terrified of that board. Your market is all but nonexistant.

Fold PF, and you wouldn't have this problem. I would make a pot-sized bet, with the intention of shutting down to any resistance. I'm certainly not going to consider pushing under any circumstances.

GG

[swarm]

Well, your four handed, there's a good chance no one has made a flush yet. I play this hand cautiously... the only way you get paid is if someone chases a flush draw and doesn't catch up to you. Too often if you bet aggressively someone will catch a flush or someone will already have a flush and burn you badly in level 1.

I'm not pushing on this board this early though Phil. Why risk all my chips this early?

By the way I see no problem completing 5 7 hear pre-flop... Some of you are too afraid to play post flop early...

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way I see no problem completing 5 7 hear pre-flop... Some of you are too afraid to play post flop early...

[/ QUOTE ]

If its just 5 chips to complete, you can do it with most hands if there are enough limpers. Just as long as you treat a flop where you have top or middle pair as a missed flop in many cases.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not pushing on this board this early though Phil. Why risk all my chips this early?


[/ QUOTE ]

I see so many idiots put all their money in here with a draw or top pair that I think it's worth it to play this one for all my chips. I agree that this is debateable, but that's my opinion.

[sng-sam]

I'm with Phil here. The odds of flopping a flush are something like 180 to 1 so a draw is more likely. Pot bet..push if raised. If no diamond on the turn push

SAM

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with Phil here. The odds of flopping a flush are something like 180 to 1 so a draw is more likely. Pot bet..push if raised. If no diamond on the turn push

SAM

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be the odds of flopping three diamonds given two in your hand. But here, we are looking at the flop, and want the odds of somebody having two diamonds as their starting hand.

For any one player to have been dealt two diamonds:

9/47 * 8/46 = .0333

And since there three others in the pot, there is a 10% chance that one of them has a flush already. This is assuming that these three are random hands. People like to call when suited, so the three who called are more likely to be suited than three random hands would be.

There is better than a 10% probability that somebody already has a flush, plus a good chance that somebody will draw one. It's also possible that somebody will make a better straight, a full house, quads, etc.

I did a simulation using TTH. If all 4 players go to the river, you are only a slight favorite. (53%) Do you really want to put t775 at risk to win the t60 that's in the pot?

GG

[boondockst]

thank god someone has some sense (gasgod)

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I did a simulation using TTH. If all 4 players go to the river, you are only a slight favorite. (53%) Do you really want to put t775 at risk to win the t60 that's in the pot?


[/ QUOTE ]

Several things....
- "If all 4 players go to the river"....it seems very unlikely that all 4 players will see the river if someone moves allin.

- "If all 4 players go to the river, you are only a slight favorite. (53%)" So I have a 53% chance to quadruple up? Sounds good to me.

- "Do you really want to put t775 at risk to win the t60 that's in the pot?" No one said you should just open push. I believe we said to bet the pot. I said to move allin if you are raised. By then, there will be at least 240 in the pot, and likely more.

It comes down to whether your opponents will raise with a draw to buy a free card, and/or whether they will pay you off without a made flush if you push. This is hard to quantify and is different for every game/opponent.

It might be interesting to try to put some numbers on these possibilities, but I don't think you've done that yet.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did a simulation using TTH. If all 4 players go to the river, you are only a slight favorite. (53%) Do you really want to put t775 at risk to win the t60 that's in the pot?


[/ QUOTE ]

Several things....
- "If all 4 players go to the river"....it seems very unlikely that all 4 players will see the river if someone moves allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, just the one who beats you. Keep in mind that you cannot improve.


[ QUOTE ]


- "If all 4 players go to the river, you are only a slight favorite. (53%)" So I have a 53% chance to quadruple up? Sounds good to me.

- "Do you really want to put t775 at risk to win the t60 that's in the pot?" No one said you should just open push. I believe we said to bet the pot. I said to move allin if you are raised. By then, there will be at least 240 in the pot, and likely more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree to bet the pot, but that's all I'm willing to invest. How likely is it that somebody who doesn't have a flush will call my all-in looking at that board?


[ QUOTE ]
It comes down to whether your opponents will raise with a draw to buy a free card, and/or whether they will pay you off without a made flush if you push. This is hard to quantify and is different for every game/opponent.

It might be interesting to try to put some numbers on these possibilities, but I don't think you've done that yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, one number that cannot be disputed (correct me if I'm wrong) is that better than 10% of the time, somebody has already made a flush. If that's the case, you get busted out. The risk/reward ratio is horrendous for you.

GG

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree to bet the pot, but that's all I'm willing to invest. How likely is it that somebody who doesn't have a flush will call my all-in looking at that board?


[/ QUOTE ]

I see this all the time. Last time I played, I flopped a set of 4s on a A4x flop with all spades. I check-raised allin and was called by a guy with 2 red jacks. 5 minutes later on another table, I triple up with a straight when 2 clubs flop and my allin is called by A2c and 74c. These were both at 50/5s.

Don't get me wrong. You make a good point, and I wouldn't always push after a raise here. Depending on reads, who raised, and how much, I could fold here.

However, a raise usually comes from someone trying to buy a free card or trying to protect top pair or a set. After they raise, it's hard for them to get away from their hand when you reraise. They already have a lot of money invested, and they probably figure you wouldn't play a made flush like this.

Of course, if they want to fold their flush draw or 2 pair to my push and give me the ~300 pot, that would be fine too.