My buddy berated me for this hand.commnts pls on this major suckout

[pokerraja]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t975)
BB (t800)
UTG (t985)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t730)
MP1 (t790)
MP2 (t835)
MP3 (t710)
Hero (t605)
Button (t770)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t150</font>, BB calls t135, UTG calls t135, UTG+1 calls t135, MP1 folds, Hero calls t135.

Flop: (t765) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t825 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t835 (All-In)</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t455 (All-In).

Turn: (t2880) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t2880) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2880

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has As Ks (one pair, aces).
UTG has Ah Td (two pair, aces and tens).
Hero has Jd Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins t2130. UTG wins t750. </font>

[Mr_J]

Easy fold preflop.

[Freudian]

1. Fold preflop
2. Fold on the flop
3. If you are going to ignore 1 &amp; 2, getting the ace on the river was smart.

[pokerraja]

I didnt mention I was on semi tilt. But, I just couldnt pass up the pot odds. I was ready to fold if flopped missed me. How was the flop call?

[Nottom]

Folding on the flop would be retarded.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt mention I was on semi tilt. But, I just couldnt pass up the pot odds. I was ready to fold if flopped missed me. How was the flop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds you created yourself by calling a 150 bet preflop.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Fold preflop
2. Fold on the flop
3. If you are going to ignore 1 &amp; 2, getting the ace on the river was smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

flop im getting roughly 3.5 to 1 and im drawing to the nuts.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didnt mention I was on semi tilt. But, I just couldnt pass up the pot odds. I was ready to fold if flopped missed me. How was the flop call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds you created yourself by calling a 150 bet preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Brilliant, in my opinion.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds you created yourself by calling a 150 bet preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he made a mistake preflop doesn't mean he should be compounding it by making a bigger mistake on the flop.

P.S. I'm pretty sure when hes talking about his pot odds he was referring to preflop.

[Freudian]

You could also be drawing dead if the board pairs. You could also have to split the pot even if it hits.

I see this kind of reasoning all the time, people making horrible bets preflop and on the flop, then forcing themselves to continue because they made themselves have potodds to chase god-knows-what.

I don't know what you want to hear. If you want to build pots with highly marginal hands and then count pot odds, do so. I think its horrible poker.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
You could also be drawing dead if the board pairs. You could also have to split the pot even if it hits.

I see this kind of reasoning all the time, people making horrible bets preflop and on the flop the forcing themselves to continue because they made themselves have potodds to chase god-knows-what.

I don't know what you want to hear. If you want to build pots with highly marginal hands and then count pot odds, do so. I think its horrible poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you realize your reasoning here is completely wrong.

The preflop call is bad, the flop call is 100% correct.

[Freudian]

He has odds to chase the straight, yes. But this kind of strategy will make him a loser in SnG's. For me postflop is 10 times less interesting than preflop in this hand. I realize OP would rather discuss postflop since he sucked out.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could also be drawing dead if the board pairs. You could also have to split the pot even if it hits.

I see this kind of reasoning all the time, people making horrible bets preflop and on the flop the forcing themselves to continue because they made themselves have potodds to chase god-knows-what.

I don't know what you want to hear. If you want to build pots with highly marginal hands and then count pot odds, do so. I think its horrible poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you realize your reasoning here is completely wrong.

The preflop call is bad, the flop call is 100% correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why even play poker if your so paranoid? Lets not blow this out of proportion. I think my flop call was very iffy, espcially considering my stack size. Now if I had 2000 chips early in a sng with 10 people still left is it still a huge mistake, considering I will play the flop correctly? pot odds, implied odds are huge. I will admit, I got bailed out very nicely when that A hit, but I have to call that flop with the action that just took place.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize OP would rather discuss postflop since he sucked out.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, not really. I want to look at both streets. By the way, semi-tilt plus a few coronas made me do it.:D

[Freudian]

So basically you post a hand where you know you made a huge mistake and expect to hear what?

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Why even play poker if your so paranoid? Lets not blow this out of proportion. I think my flop call was very iffy, espcially considering my stack size. Now if I had 2000 chips early in a sng with 10 people still left is it still a huge mistake, considering I will play the flop correctly? pot odds, implied odds are huge. I will admit, I got bailed out very nicely when that A hit, but I have to call that flop with the action that just took place.

[/ QUOTE ]
Preflop call is terrible. You're probably dominated. It's still level 1, and the blinds are 10/15. If you call the preflop raise, and miss the flop, you're left with 455 in chips. A severe shortstack when the blinds get up to 25/50 and beyond. Preflop call is not just iffy, it's wrong.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Fold preflop
2. Fold on the flop
3. If you are going to ignore 1 &amp; 2, getting the ace on the river was smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to sugar coat anything. I posted this hand to get different opinions. I'm curious to what made you change your mind about the flop play?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
He has odds to chase the straight, yes. But this kind of strategy will make him a loser in SnG's. For me postflop is 10 times less interesting than preflop in this hand. I realize OP would rather discuss postflop since he sucked out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not even going to begin to defend his preflop call, but when a regular poster says to fold this flop, I want anybody reading this thread to know that advice is wrong.

[Freudian]

Who said I changed my mind?

With 0 chips you have 0% chance to get in the money.
With 455 chips you have a slim chance to make the money
with 2k chips you have a slim chance to make the money since you are drunk and make stupid decisions.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
Who said I changed my mind?

With 0 chips you have 0% chance to get in the money.
With 455 chips you have a slim chance to make the money
with 2k chips you have a slim chance to make the money since you are drunk and make stupid decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your wrong on all accounts. 455 is workable this early. With the 2K in chips I coasted to the money. And lastly, a couple coronas does not get me drunk.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

I think your wrong on all accounts. 455 is workable this early. With the 2K in chips I coasted to the money. And lastly, a couple coronas does not get me drunk.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were drunk/tilted enough to make a rookie mistake.

I still don't know what the purpose is with this topic. What exactly do you want to hear? That you had potodds to chase an OES?

[curtains]

I agree with Nottom, folding the flop is ridiculous. (I would fold preflop of course)

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think your wrong on all accounts. 455 is workable this early. With the 2K in chips I coasted to the money. And lastly, a couple coronas does not get me drunk.

[/ QUOTE ]



You were drunk/tilted enough to make a rookie mistake.

I still don't know what the purpose is with this topic. What exactly do you want to hear? That you had potodds to chase an OES?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im sorry for waisting your time you big time pro you! Why do most people post hands? TO discuss. Why are you getting all bend out of shape over a discussion? Next time you see one of my "rookie" threads, don't even open it.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Im sorry for waisting your time you big time pro you! Why do most people post hands? TO discuss. Why are you getting all bend out of shape over a discussion? Next time you see one of my "rookie" threads, don't even open it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you want to discuss beyond having pot odds to chase an OES?

[curtains]

Fruedian, do yourself a favor and stop attacking posters in the same thread that you give terrible advice to fold a hand where you will win about 30% of the time and yet have to risk 455 to win over 1650.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Fruedian, do yourself a favor and stop attacking posters in the same thread that you give terrible advice to fold a hand where you will win about 30% of the time and yet have to risk 455 to win over 1650.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not attacking him. I have repeatedly asked him what he wants to discuss about this hand since he said he wants to discuss this hand.

If the entire point with this thread was to establish the pot odds for an OES then it seems a bit pointless to post it.

[curtains]

Well he made a bad preflop call and people let him know.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Well he made a bad preflop call and people let him know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which he already knew to start with.

Perhaps it is just an inverted bad beat post.

[curtains]

I can't read his mind. At no point did he admit that he made a "bad" preflop call. He simply asked for advice about the hand.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Which he already knew to start with.

Perhaps it is just an inverted bad beat post.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didnt mention I was on semi tilt. But, I just couldnt pass up the pot odds. I was ready to fold if flopped missed me. How was the flop call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks to me he didn't already know. He thought he had pot odds to call preflop.

[pokerraja]

I posted asking for comments. And they are all appreciated. I just sensed a negative tone from freudian throughout this thread. It's all good, no harm done.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted asking for comments. And they are all appreciated. I just sensed a negative tone from freudian throughout this thread. It's all good, no harm done.

[/ QUOTE ]

One question. If you hit a J (instead of the T/images/graemlins/spade.gif for example) on the flop would you have been prepared to call off the rest of your stack based on pot odds?

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I posted asking for comments. And they are all appreciated. I just sensed a negative tone from freudian throughout this thread. It's all good, no harm done.

[/ QUOTE ]

One question. If you hit a J on the flop would you have been prepared to call off the rest of your stack based on pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Now if I hit 2 jacks on flop, im going to dance.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I posted asking for comments. And they are all appreciated. I just sensed a negative tone from freudian throughout this thread. It's all good, no harm done.

[/ QUOTE ]

One question. If you hit a J on the flop would you have been prepared to call off the rest of your stack based on pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Now if I hit 2 jacks on flop, im going to dance.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you play KJs purely for the chance of flopping a great draw and flopped trips, do you play this way with every suited connector/semi-connector? If not, why?

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I posted asking for comments. And they are all appreciated. I just sensed a negative tone from freudian throughout this thread. It's all good, no harm done.

[/ QUOTE ]

One question. If you hit a J on the flop would you have been prepared to call off the rest of your stack based on pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Now if I hit 2 jacks on flop, im going to dance.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you play KJs purely for the chance of flopping a great draw and flopped trips, do you play this way with every suited connector/semi-connector? If not, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your funny.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Your funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm serious.

I'll elaborate. If you call for huge implied future odds a hand like 76s is even better than KJs here. So would you call with 76s here. If not, why?

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Your funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm serious.

I'll elaborate. If you call for huge implied future odds a hand like 76s is even better than KJs here. So would you call with 76s here. If not, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was in the same state of mind as I was as the hand in question, I would of called with any suited connector, and most probaby suited 2 gappers. But, I'm glad for all this discussion because I know realize the magnitude of the mistake. But, I'm sure we all have played a hand badly and posted it here for discussion.

Let me ask you a question, have you ever made a mistake while you are multi-tabling?

[Freudian]

I make mistakes all the time. And I probably make even more than I am not aware of.

But I am serious with this. I often see players that want to have pot odds to continue, and play in a way so they often have odds to chase even marginal hands. You see the phrase "but I had pot odds" on these forums all the time, and always it's said to justify bad plays previously.

With the stack sizes and blind progression on Party playing this way is extremely hard and I am not sure it is even profitable for someone with great postflop play.

[pokerraja]

Thanks.

[Freudian]

I just played an even worse hand. I was convinced that I had KK (suited:D). Then I looked an extra time.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1555)
BB (t1185)
UTG (t1120)
MP (t1585)
Button (t2555)

Preflop:
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls [t1585] , <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls [t1555] t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t600) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t600) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t600) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t600

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 5h Kh (two pair, kings and jacks).
MP has Td Qd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t3510. </font>

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]


With the stack sizes and blind progression on Party playing this way is extremely hard and I am not sure it is even profitable for someone with great postflop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

What levels do you play Freudian? This isn't an attack or anything since I don't know you at all, but in my experiences I'm learning that post-flop play is absolutely crucial when trying to jump up to the 109's/215's and above. Probably even more important is trying to decipher all the available information you have about an opponent in a current hand to define what hand they're on based on bet sizes, etc (or in another sense, how they play post-flop, and pre-flop for that matter). It's fun when it becomes a game within a game within .... when you're playing with regular opponents and playing hands different ways since it'll become a little too obvious after time. I'll be one to admit I've played very mechanically and straight-forward for awhile now but that's changing now. I've been thinking recently that it's more beneficial for me to stick to 4 tables to fully understand and play the game properly so I could move up faster instead of 8tabling (or more) at a lower level while learning absolutely nothing. 4 tables is my comfort zone where I feel I could still play my A game so it's obviously different for everyone.

Edit: Might I add that it's fun when you're up against VERY solid opponents who observe your own play and watching them make some outrageous bluffs on you when they're absolutely sure you'll fold since you've manipulated them to think this. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The above sentence sounded right in my head but it looks weird when written down so I dunno I may just be babbling here...

[Freudian]

I play 22$. With 1000 starting chips (and perhaps even more importantly a higher level of competition) I can imagine you have to adjust your game quite a bit.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
I play 22$. With 1000 starting chips (and perhaps even more importantly a higher level of competition) I can imagine you have to adjust your game quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, ok now I know where the original quote came from since you are more restricted at the 22's. Instead of worrying about ROI, everyone should worry if Party ever changes the structure on their SNG's since that would be the end of the world for many people here. This is another reason why instead of just specializing in proper SNG concepts, people should follow adanthar's footsteps and maybe play deep-stacked ring games or play at another site to learn post-flop play... just in case.

It's not a coincidence that the best SNG players here on the forum are also amazing in deep-stacked ring games and/or MTT's.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play 22$. With 1000 starting chips (and perhaps even more importantly a higher level of competition) I can imagine you have to adjust your game quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, ok now I know where the original quote came from since you are more restricted at the 22's. Instead of worrying about ROI, everyone should worry if Party ever changes the structure on their SNG's since that would be the end of the world for many people here. This is another reason why instead of just specializing in proper SNG concepts, people should follow adanthar's footsteps and maybe play deep-stacked ring games or play at another site to learn post-flop play... just in case.

It's not a coincidence that the best SNG players here on the forum are also amazing in deep-stacked ring games and/or MTT's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those that has adjusted to the current structure will probably be most likely to adjust to a future structure. As long as there are poor players I don't think anyone should be all that worried.

I think there is a natural evolution of strategies that everyone has to go through when moving up in levels.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t975)
BB (t800)
UTG (t985)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t730)
MP1 (t790)
MP2 (t835)
MP3 (t710)
Hero (t605)
Button (t770)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t150</font>, BB calls t135, UTG calls t135, UTG+1 calls t135, MP1 folds, Hero calls t135.

Flop: (t765) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t825 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t835 (All-In)</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t455 (All-In).

Turn: (t2880) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t2880) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2880

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has As Ks (one pair, aces).
UTG has Ah Td (two pair, aces and tens).
Hero has Jd Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins t2130. UTG wins t750. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this play is fine and dandy early on, but what if the bubble rolls around, and you are in the same siutation. After making a foolish preflop call, do u also call on the flop?

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t975)
BB (t800)
UTG (t985)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t730)
MP1 (t790)
MP2 (t835)
MP3 (t710)
Hero (t605)
Button (t770)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t150</font>, BB calls t135, UTG calls t135, UTG+1 calls t135, MP1 folds, Hero calls t135.

Flop: (t765) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t825 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t835 (All-In)</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t455 (All-In).

Turn: (t2880) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t2880) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2880

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has As Ks (one pair, aces).
UTG has Ah Td (two pair, aces and tens).
Hero has Jd Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins t2130. UTG wins t750. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this play is fine and dandy early on, but what if the bubble rolls around, and you are in the same siutation. After making a foolish preflop call, do u also call on the flop? [/quot




If I was in the same predicament on the bubble, I would probably still play it the same way. But, it there were 2 similar stack both already AI before action gets to me on the flop, i might fold. It depends on alot of factors. At the same time, I'm not scared to push or call if I have the best of it during the bubble.

[jrm]

Am I the only one that doesn't like this flop call?

My quick ICM analysis says this:
EV of folding: 0.0625
EV of calling and winning: 0.2008
EV of calling and losing: 0

To make a +EV play, Hero needs to win 31.125% of the time to make this call. That's equivalent to about 7.9 outs. With two all-ins in front of you, it seems hard to believe you've got 4 A's left to draw to. Your Kings are also very questionable outs. You might have 8 outs here, but it's pretty tough to be sure.

I'd play it safe since it's still early.

[curtains]

It's possible that calling on the flop isn't as obvious as I originally made it sound. I still like calling though.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Fold preflop
2. Fold on the flop
3. If you are going to ignore 1 &amp; 2, getting the ace on the river was smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well put. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

GG

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one that doesn't like this flop call?

My quick ICM analysis says this:
EV of folding: 0.0625
EV of calling and winning: 0.2008
EV of calling and losing: 0

To make a +EV play, Hero needs to win 31.125% of the time to make this call. That's equivalent to about 7.9 outs. With two all-ins in front of you, it seems hard to believe you've got 4 A's left to draw to. Your Kings are also very questionable outs. You might have 8 outs here, but it's pretty tough to be sure.

I'd play it safe since it's still early.

[/ QUOTE ]

very interesting analysis. So, is it safe to say that flop call was also incorrect? I'm glad I posted this hand. For someone like me its very educational.

[Voltron87]

1. Easy fold preflop.
2. Harder fold on the flop. Straight up, you have odds to call, but that is assuming you have 8 clean outs. One or two of the aces are probably gone an someone might have a set. So I fold, but it's close.

[curtains]

No pokerraja, I still think calling on the flop is correct. It's definitely not safe to say the flop call is incorrect. There are even some cases where you will have about a 35-36% to win the hand (Like both opps having AQ).

[Voltron87]

IMO it's very close and the difference is negligible.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one that doesn't like this flop call?

My quick ICM analysis says this:
EV of folding: 0.0625
EV of calling and winning: 0.2008
EV of calling and losing: 0

To make a +EV play, Hero needs to win 31.125% of the time to make this call. That's equivalent to about 7.9 outs. With two all-ins in front of you, it seems hard to believe you've got 4 A's left to draw to. Your Kings are also very questionable outs. You might have 8 outs here, but it's pretty tough to be sure.

I'd play it safe since it's still early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran the numbers and came up with an ICM EV of 0.2316 if he wins the hand. (My fold number was the same)

This means he only needs to win 26% of the time, which makes it a pretty clear call.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I ran the numbers and came up with an ICM EV of 0.2316 if he wins the hand. (My fold number was the same)


[/ QUOTE ]

Given how early it is and how small the blinds are, I'm inclined to think that chip EV is probably an acceptable way of looking at things here, and certainly easier in the heat of battle. From a chip EV perspective, this seems like a super-easy call. And barely anybody has been knocked out, so he's going to have to survive a good long time and get a little lucky at this point to hit the money, most likely.

Given that a major reason listed for playing at Party is $/hour, I also think that it's worth pointing out that this is almost certainly a + $/hour move. He either puts himself in good position to cash in this tournament, or busts out instead of lingering with a short stack that he will require at least some luck to boost and can immediately start another tournament where he figures to have more equity.

I would make this flop call 99% of the time; I would want to be pretty convinced that one of my opponents had the set and that I was likely to be able to survive a good long while with my short stack before I would fold here, and I start out relatively unconvinced of both things.

[adanthar]

The flop is a pretty clear call. There's probably an ace or two missing but you also have the backdoor flush draw, some low chance the K is good, etc. ICM does not factor in here due to the usual effect of having 455 vs. 2K chips later on that it never factors in; to be honest, after reading thread after thread with the ICM involved, I'm pretty sure that it's flawed enough that *any* close ICM decision should be a call based on that alone.

The PF call naturally sucks. However, there's a point at which stacks are deep enough so that this call is a good one, and at which calling 76s would be routine.

I think I would actually make it in a Stars SNG.