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View Full Version : Interesting situation...


Goodnews
04-16-2005, 11:14 PM
Ok, me and my friend were talking about the correct play in this situation...

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ac, As.
2 folds, MP1 call, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero Raises, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Ah, 7d, 9d (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button checks, Hero ???.

Given information:
If Hero bets, MP1 and MP3 fold, and Button will check/call to river with his flush draw.

FishHooks
04-16-2005, 11:16 PM
You easily bet here, why would you not.

atnels
04-16-2005, 11:18 PM
You're seriously considering giving a free card? You have a great hand but I can't really see any merit in letting it check through.

From your statement at the end, I'm not really sure what you're trying to get at. If you KNOW people's hands, it's kind of a pointless discussion.

toss
04-16-2005, 11:19 PM
Why wouldn't you bet? Slowplaying hardly ever works

Goodnews
04-16-2005, 11:20 PM
My argument was to check the flop and bet the turn, since MP1 and MP3 will fold, and Button will call a 4:1 on a 6.7:1 draw, it will be more profitable than betting the flop and turn, having Button call 5:1 on a 6.7:1 draw.

Or is this a situation where having to defend your very strong hand is uncalled for?

Goodnews
04-16-2005, 11:22 PM
I am trying to figure out if there is more profit in my opponent making a bad call (5:1 on 6.7:1 draw) to a worse call (4:1 on 6.7:1 draw).

Zoelef
04-16-2005, 11:29 PM
Fastplay until a diamond - Ad notwithstanding - hits the board.

ArturiusX
04-16-2005, 11:30 PM
Why is this interesting? You've got a monster of a hand, in a game where people will call just about any bet.

atnels
04-16-2005, 11:31 PM
EV, checking flop:

So you check flop through, turn is 4 BB. Checked to you, you bet, villain calls = 6 BB. If villain's draw misses, you win 6 BB (assuming villain folds on river bet). If he's on a 6.7:1 draw, you'll win 6 BB 87% of the time. Draw comes in, say you call a check raise and lose 3 BB.

EV = .87 x 6 - .13 x 3 = 4.84

Betting flop, turn = 5 BB, river = 7 BB. Assuming same scenario...

EV = .87 x 7 - .13 x 3.5 = 5.64

Disclaimer: It's late, I'm drunk, and I might not understand what you're getting at here. Betting flop is clearly better.

no1super2001
04-17-2005, 12:04 AM
grunching...

Bet, no question.

With your 7 outs to win outright, the two flush on the board poses little risk.

JackTrey
04-17-2005, 01:04 AM
Calculating your flush draw opponent's odds based on pure pot odds is wrong on the flop, because it's not like you can fold your set of aces on the turn even if you're 100% positive your opponent just turned the nut flush. And who's going to check a made flush on the turn here? Unless he's willing to try a check-raise on you (and he's more likely to try a check-raise if you bet the flop).

davelin
04-17-2005, 01:09 AM
It's atrocious to even think about checking here.

splashpot
04-17-2005, 02:46 AM
Consider the situation after the flop. You will win the hand 2/3rds of the time. The concept of pot equity says that 2/3rds of every bet that goes into the pot "belongs" to you. Therefore, you should get as many bets into the pot as possible.

bottomset
04-17-2005, 03:10 AM
Preflop: Hero is Button with Ac, As.
2 folds, MP1 call, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero Raises, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Ah, 7d, 9d (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button checks, Hero ???.

I like that second button that just appeared, I've never seen that before

anyway you don't protect monsters you EXTRACT VALUE from them... well you gotta bet to do that 99% of the time