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View Full Version : How often does this guy show AA, do you think?

Buckmulligan
04-16-2005, 10:31 PM
Here's the deal, I wasn't about to get Monsters Under the bed on the river, and as you can see, I didn't, but really: what percentage of the time does villain show AA?

Villain is L/A/P.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (19.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB
crumpentunt
04-16-2005, 10:39 PM
As to what percentage of the time he has AA? I say 5-10%. First of all you have him marked as loose preflop (so he could have called preflop with anything (J6s, 33, 63s)), secondly you have him marked as passive postflop, yet he is capping the flop and turn with AA?

You played it perfectly and didn't show MUBS, but I think he is showing down AA only 5-10% of the time.
AngelicPenguin
04-16-2005, 10:39 PM
I think it's more likely you're up against a FLOPPED set (or two pair).
scotty34
04-16-2005, 10:40 PM
less than 1% of the time IMO, nice hand
toss
04-16-2005, 10:42 PM
Nice to see you've implemented an adjustment for the better.
crumpentunt
04-16-2005, 10:47 PM
I don't understand your post, he has implemented an adjustment for the better as in before he wouldn't have capped the river, but now he would.. or? I am confused.
Zoelef
04-16-2005, 10:49 PM
Not often enough to slow down.
Buckmulligan
04-16-2005, 10:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Not often enough to slow down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your right, but with that ace coming at the end, and him not slowing down, AA felt like a great possibility, as he isn't going all out with his other over pairs any longer.
deepsquat
04-16-2005, 10:54 PM
I think you will see AJ alot from this guy. Cant see him showing AA with the PF action.
Zoelef
04-16-2005, 11:00 PM
If you believe he'd play AA in this fashion, then call his river raise.

Anyway, do people normally call AA 3-cold on the flop?