AA from the button, river betting gets insane (edit: results at end)

[namkap]

MP2 is unremarkable. CO is new so no reads. J1668 is a little loose but passive (i.e. no preflop raises over 120 hands)

Comments on my play on all rivers? The betting was very strange here but I *think* my play was okay.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: (20.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 29.25 BB

[ArturiusX]

Why did you fold this? What exactly beats you here?

[UncleSalty]

Dude, April 1st was weeks ago.

Edit: And, please come play at my table. Seriously, I guess CO's flop action could indicate an OESD that made good on the river, but you have to at least call to find out. Lots of people would play AK/AQ this way.

Edit2: Okay, I guess I can see other possible beats besides JT, but I'm still calling here. If that makes me a no-good LAPPy Donk, so be it.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you fold this? What exactly beats you here?

[/ QUOTE ]

JT, 43, a flush...

[zuluking]

Folding here was a HUGE mistake.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here was a HUGE mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far from a huge mistake.

Those of you who are berating him. How often would you estimate Hero's hand is best here?

[scotty34]

Wow, I am totally lost. I can't decide if I think this was a good laydown or the most retarded play I've ever seen. I'm leaning towards good laydown though.

[ArturiusX]

I think we see enough two pairs on the river here to make a profitable call.

[zuluking]

SSHE, "Play tight in small pots, play loose in big pots."

Okay, okay. HUGE is a bit strong. Personally, I would have called.

[bozlax]

You raised when there was a 3-flush on the turn (I assume you don't think anybody had the flush or you would've folded the turn when you were drawing dead), and when the ace falls on the river to give you the set you're folding to a bunch of two-pairs? Booooooooooooo!

If BB or CO stayed through all that on the flop and turn with JT, more power to them, but you have to see this throught to the end.

[namkap]

Any two /images/graemlins/heart.gifs beat me. Given the crazy betting on the river - an open bet, a raise, and a reraise INTO my aggression on all streets - I thought at least one if not two of my opponents had the flush.

I don't think I win that hand 1 out of 10 times, and that was how the odds were laying me at the river fold.

[scotty34]

3 separate two-pairs?

Hero would be getting ~10:1 being the 4th person to put money on the river in a pot that will surely get capped. I think he needs the best hand probably 12-14% of the time here, and I'm not sure that's going to happen.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
Any two /images/graemlins/heart.gifs beat me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it 2 $hitty hearts? I would have busted another hole in the wall on that one. Nice laydown.

[namkap]

This here was my thinking. If it were one opponent capping with me to the river, I make that call all day long. But with the players in the pot, I couldn't concieve of all 3 of them betting into me without having a straight or flush.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
You raised when there was a 3-flush on the turn (I assume you don't think anybody had the flush or you would've folded the turn when you were drawing dead), and when the ace falls on the river to give you the set you're folding to a bunch of two-pairs? Booooooooooooo!

If BB or CO stayed through all that on the flop and turn with JT, more power to them, but you have to see this throught to the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

He never put anyone on the flush because no one gave him a reason to at this point. A CO bet on a semi-scare card on the turn is no reason to fear the flush yet. That could mean almost anything really, especially with no 3-bet. Facing 3 cold on the river with a 3-flush and 3 to a straight on the board is a totally different story.

[Kumubou]

With tbe BB and MP2 waking up on the river, on top of CO putting the pedal to the metal? I fold this; the odds of all three players either bluffing or playing two-pair like this are extremely unlikely. Any one of them is fine, but three? I doubt your hand is good 10% of the time, although I would have pegged it being slightly worse odds, expecting someone to cap it behind me.

-K

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
This here was my thinking. If it were one opponent capping with me to the river, I make that call all day long. But with the players in the pot, I couldn't concieve of all 3 of them betting into me without having a straight or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually a perspective I hadn't considered, and it's a good point.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Facing 3 cold on the river with a 3-flush and 3 to a straight on the board is a totally different story.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Maybe "Booooooooo!" is a little harsh. My actual point is, the only thing that would make me crazier than having my set of aces beaten by two crap hearts or JTo would be folding this hand and having BB flip A5, CO flip KQ, and the other guy flip K2. And, kittens know, that NEVER happens on Party .5/1.

This is a sanity cap.

[namkap]

Results in below:
BB has Jh Th (flush, king high).
MP2 has 8h 7h (flush, king high).
CO has Kd Qd (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: BB wins 29.25 BB.

Only one had the anticipated 2 pair.

[SlantNGo]

I think the river is okay, but I disagree with your flop &amp; turn play. On the flop, I just call the 3-bet, preparing to raise a safe turn card to deny people with a Q or 2 proper odds to see the river.

On the turn, well [censored], that's not a good card, but you do have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif so we can profitably call any number of bets here. If we didn't have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif I'd most likely call 1 then fold to a raise on the turn.

River, we're behind 2 straights or any 2 hearts... I think we're good here 1 in 20 or so, not 1 in 10. It's a heartbreaker, but I think the fold is okay.

[lionhorse]

3BB gives you the chance to win 29BB.

I would cap this any day of the week.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
3BB gives you the chance to win 29BB.

I would cap this any day of the week.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll also lose this hand any day of the week capping a bet, raise, 3bet when you've shown aggression on every street on this board.

[scotty34]

3BB gives you how much of a chances to win 29BB though? If the answer is &lt;10%, this is clearly wrong.

[namkap]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is okay, but I disagree with your flop &amp; turn play. On the flop, I just call the 3-bet, preparing to raise a safe turn card to deny people with a Q or 2 proper odds to see the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?!?! IMO I need to cap here NOW to build the pot while I'm still ahead and force the limpers to make poor decisions. I got 2 players to call 2 bets cold TWICE in one round of betting. You have to push them into tough decisions to get people to lay down thier draws. Them calling one bet here isn't even a decision, they will always limp along and be making the *correct* call.

[ QUOTE ]

On the turn, well [censored], that's not a good card, but you do have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif so we can profitably call any number of bets here. If we didn't have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif I'd most likely call 1 then fold to a raise on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

You'd advocate folding to ONE BET when I have a redraw to the nuts? huh again?

[ QUOTE ]

River, we're behind 2 straights or any 2 hearts... I think we're good here 1 in 20 or so, not 1 in 10. It's a heartbreaker, but I think the fold is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the only part of your post I agree with. It *was* a very tough laydown (I actually let the timer run out rather than hit the fold button /images/graemlins/laugh.gif) but it was IMO the correct one even before knowing the results.

[lionhorse]

You're right, I didn't take into account the aggression on the river. Now that I see that, I probably would have called.

[namkap]

[ QUOTE ]
You raised when there was a 3-flush on the turn (I assume you don't think anybody had the flush or you would've folded the turn when you were drawing dead), and when the ace falls on the river to give you the set you're folding to a bunch of two-pairs? Booooooooooooo!

If BB or CO stayed through all that on the flop and turn with JT, more power to them, but you have to see this throught to the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I wasn't drawing dead when the flush hit the turn. I had the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif for an overpair + redraw to the nut flush.

[Zoelef]

Man, this hand is strange starting at the turn...I think if you're aiming to draw into a nut flush on the river then just call the turn, you're only spiking a fourth heart ~20% of the time, ~15% if you think someone else has two hearts...

So, I guess I call the turn. 3 cold back to me and I think I have to fold the river; I've done it two-cold back to me and yes, it does suck, but I think at least one person has a straight or better 90%+ of the time here.

the ~xx% are mental guesstimations.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh?!?! IMO I need to cap here NOW to build the pot while I'm still ahead and force the limpers to make poor decisions. I got 2 players to call 2 bets cold TWICE in one round of betting. You have to push them into tough decisions to get people to lay down thier draws. Them calling one bet here isn't even a decision, they will always limp along and be making the *correct* call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't force them to make an incorrect call on the flop anymore; the pot is too big already. Hence, you wait for the double-sized turn bet to raise CO and force them to call 2 big bets cold. By capping here, I think it's more likely that CO would check to you on the turn, leaving you no opportunity to force the other 2 out.

[ QUOTE ]
You'd advocate folding to ONE BET when I have a redraw to the nuts? huh again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Read what I wrote again.