View Full Version : Will Ichiro hit .400 this year?
Popinjay
04-16-2005, 04:57 PM
He's hitting .432 this year and the Mariners line-up is stacked.
tbach24
04-16-2005, 04:57 PM
Probably, but who cares? BA isn't important.
istewart
04-16-2005, 04:58 PM
No, he won't.
kerssens
04-16-2005, 04:59 PM
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Probably, but who cares? BA isn't important.
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BA may not be important but a .400 BA would be. I don't think he'll do it but its possible and I'll definately be rooting for it.
istewart
04-16-2005, 05:00 PM
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He's hitting .432 this year
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And the Yankees are at the bottom of the AL East... give it more than two weeks dude.
For what it's worth I love Ichiro and will be rooting for him to do it, and I think he could get within .015 of it, but I still don't think he will.
And people that shrug off all mentions of BA as meaningless are gay. Everyone and their mother knows it's trivial thanks to BP but hitting .400 is [censored] sweet.
tbach24
04-16-2005, 05:00 PM
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Probably, but who cares? BA isn't important.
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BA may not be important but a .400 BA would be. I don't think he'll do it but its possible and I'll definately be rooting for it.
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It will definetly be impressive. I will root for him too.
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He's hitting .432 this year
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And the Yankees are at the bottom of the AL East... give it more than two weeks dude.
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And Jose Guillen is on pace for 80 homers.
istewart
04-16-2005, 05:05 PM
lol
SinCityGuy
04-16-2005, 05:07 PM
It's very unlikely that anyone will hit the .400 mark again for an entire season. The pitching dynamics are much different than they were in the old days. Now, you have a set starting rotation that pitches for five or six innings, mid-relievers and closers.
bholdr
04-16-2005, 05:08 PM
it will be incredibly difficult for ichiro to hit .400, but he is definitly capable of doing it. In fact, i think he would have done it last year if paul molitor hadn't screwed with his swing in the previous offseason, and Melvin hadn't put him in the #3 for a few weeks, and if he actually had some run production behind him.
this is what will make it hard on him:
A: he needs to do it over 700-odd PAs, being a leadoff man and everyday guy. that's a long time to hit .400
B: he's getting more respect around the leauge- teams have designed a kind of 'ichiro shift' to counter his speed, but so far he's been 'hitting them where they ain't'... it will be intresting to watch.
were you all aware, that counting spring training and last season, his most recent hitting streak was over 30 games?!!
56 is the magic number, and the ultimate baseball record, i give ichiro about a 1% chance of doing it. maybe 1%. it would be killer to watch him or somebody else chase that down.
jesusarenque
04-16-2005, 05:09 PM
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And the Yankees are at the bottom of the AL East... give it more than two weeks dude.
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The Yankees will not make the playoffs this year.
bholdr
04-16-2005, 05:11 PM
if one were to subtract april and the first two weeks of may, (in which paul molitor had screwed with ichiro's swing, in an attempt to get more doubles out of him), ichiro's avarage last year was over .400. he is definitly capable.
istewart
04-16-2005, 05:23 PM
That still doesn't prove anything. That's like saying if you subtract January and the first two weeks of February I'd be averaging 10BB/100 in 2005.
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Probably, but who cares? BA isn't important.
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Hahahahahahahahahah.
Look at his OBP, hater. It's .479
I hope they do so we can have a repeat of last year. That would be incredible.
Jack of Arcades
04-16-2005, 05:41 PM
It's possible. He's probably the one player in the league who could do it.
That said, it isn't very likely. It'll probably happen again but not relatively soon.
PS: Ichiro is totally sweet and everyon hating on him has no clue.
PPS: Seattle's lineup is far from stacked.
jesusarenque
04-16-2005, 05:45 PM
What would Ichiro hit if he signed with Colorado?
bholdr
04-16-2005, 05:48 PM
it would prove something if you had a coach that was screwing up your poker game in those months, making them stasticly misleading vis-a-vis your long term profitability.
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What would Ichiro hit if he signed with Colorado?
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More homers?
jesusarenque
04-16-2005, 05:58 PM
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What would Ichiro hit if he signed with Colorado?
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More homers?
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I meant BA.
Jack of Arcades
04-16-2005, 06:00 PM
It's very likely it would be roughly the same, since ichiro is an unusual hitter who shows little effect from parks.
jesusarenque
04-16-2005, 06:03 PM
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It's very likely it would be roughly the same, since ichiro is an unusual hitter who shows little effect from parks.
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I agree, but isn't Colorado the "Ichiro" of baseball parks? I think Ichiro would probably do about the same, but it would be interesting to find out.
What I really want to see is a big time slugger sign with Colorado in his prime and see what happens.
How much would Helton's BA drop?
25 points? lol
jesusarenque
04-16-2005, 06:09 PM
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How much would Helton's BA drop?
25 points? lol
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No.
Helton on the road:
.310/.422/.517
istewart
04-16-2005, 06:12 PM
And? He hit .347 overall...
Schneids
04-16-2005, 06:16 PM
If someone wants to lay me 10-1 I'll bet them that Ichiro does hit .400 or higher this year.
Jack of Arcades
04-16-2005, 06:21 PM
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How much would Helton's BA drop?
25 points? lol
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About 40 points.
Helton at home for his career: .377/.467/.701
Helton one the road for his career: .299/.395/.526
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How much would Helton's BA drop?
25 points? lol
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No.
Helton on the road:
.310/.422/.517
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My point exactly.
Look at Helton's career average at home, and compare it to on the road.
So, Jack, it is just as I thought.
Helton is a good hitter, but he is not fantastic. Coors has helped him a lot.
I don't think he deserves to be in the Hall, but they will probably induct him.
istewart
04-16-2005, 06:28 PM
Coors is the equivalent of steroids. See Bichette /images/graemlins/grin.gif.
jason_t
04-16-2005, 06:30 PM
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56 is the magic number, and the ultimate baseball record, i give ichiro about a 1% chance of doing it. maybe 1%. it would be killer to watch him or somebody else chase that down.
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Assume an average of 4 AB per game (for Ichiro it has been roughly 4.25 over the past four years). If Ichiro is a .400 hitter, then the probability that he doesn't get a hit in a given at bat is .6. Therefore, the probability tht he does not get a hit in a game is .6^4 = .1296. Hence, the probability Ichiro hits safely in a game is .8704. If Ichiro hits safely in a game, the probability that he hits safely in the next 55 games is .8704^55 = .00048. That is, there is a .048% chance that a hit today will lead to a 56 game hitting streak.
Last year Ichiro hit .372 and the above reasoning leads to a .009% chance that a hit today will lead to a 56 game hitting streak.
Yes, hitting streaks are impressive.
stanky
04-16-2005, 06:32 PM
Buehrle pitched an awesome game today giving up only three hits---Ichiro had all three.
Jack of Arcades
04-16-2005, 06:39 PM
Even after you adjust for the park and position, Todd Helton is one of the best hitters in the game, probably top 20.
I don't doubt that he's top 20. But all of the top 20 right now don't belong in the Hall.
jason_t
04-16-2005, 06:48 PM
Amendment:
I have also gone about computing the chance that a .372 hitter with an average of 4 AB per games acheives a 56 game hitting streak at some point during a regular season of 162 games. The answer to that is .13% or 738:1 against. The chance that a .400 hitter will do this is .6 or 160:1 against.
jason_t
04-16-2005, 09:46 PM
Final addendum:
If I have done the math correctly, Ichiro's average average over the last four seasons is .33875 with standard deviation 0.0237841859. Assuming that batting average is normally distributed, I computed the chance that Ichiro bats .400 or better as .5% or 198:1 against.
Alobar
04-16-2005, 10:44 PM
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Final addendum:
If I have done the math correctly, Ichiro's average average over the last four seasons is .33875 with standard deviation 0.0237841859. Assuming that batting average is normally distributed, I computed the chance that Ichiro bats .400 or better as .5% or 198:1 against.
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good thing baseball isnt all math /images/graemlins/smile.gif
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Final addendum:
If I have done the math correctly, Ichiro's average average over the last four seasons is .33875 with standard deviation 0.0237841859. Assuming that batting average is normally distributed, I computed the chance that Ichiro bats .400 or better as .5% or 198:1 against.
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good thing baseball isnt all math /images/graemlins/smile.gif
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Please tell that to Bill James. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
How are the A's doing? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
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