A hand that is bugging me

[PokerBob]

Just got home from 12 hours at Canterbury 6/12. Nice table. I have been card dead for a while, but anyone with eyes know I'm a TAG, but who knows if the donks here can observe that. A note on villain here; In an earlier hand, one donker donks, I raise AK from MP and villain calls in the BB.
Flop K55
check, check, I bet, call, fold.
turn 2
check, I bet, call
river J
bet (wtf???), I call
he shows J5 soooooted
No turn c/r. Odd IMO. I had thought this guy was solid, but I dunno now. I also saw him slow down with KK on a Q-high, uncoordinated board when he was raised on the flop.
Anyway, on to the hand....

I have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif in the CO
4 donkers, I raise, BB calls. All the donks call.

Flop (12.5sb) (6 donks)
2 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
checks to me, I bet, 2 callers
Turn (7.75BB) (3 donks)
T /images/graemlins/heart.gif
check to me, I bet, <font color="red"> villain raises </font> , donk folds, I call
River (11.75BB) (2 donks)
6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Villain bets, hero???????

[MarkL444]

maybe im wrong, but if youre not gonna call this river i dont see the point in calling the turn.

[sthief09]

he's getting 11-1 with 8 outs to beat 2 pair, 2 outs to beat a set, and the chance that he's ahead and his opponent will not bet the river. that is why you might possibly call the turn then fold the river. in this situation, I'd call both.

[MarkL444]

or 0 outs against a straight. the donk didnt check raise him with trips before. why would he do it with 2 pair here?

[sthief09]

people act differently in different situations. I see a TON of people play trips, and only trips, like that live. even otherwise solid, aggressive players.

but yeah, he's going to have a straight a lot of the time. but sometimes he won't and AA has outs. J9s is the only hand that makes sense for this guy

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
he's getting 11-1 with 8 outs to beat 2 pair, 2 outs to beat a set, and the chance that he's ahead and his opponent will not bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why I called the turn.

[StellarWind]

I'm not even sure what you think the choices are. At first I thought you wanted to raise but then the other posters thought it was a call/fold decision.

Folding is a bigger mistake than raising.

Sometimes poker is an easy game. Don't complicate life. Pay the man and show your overpair down.

[ QUOTE ]
A note on villain here ...

[/ QUOTE ]
Not that it really matters, but the moral of this story is that he plays big hands weakly. So what does it mean when he plays a hand strongly? Exactly. I trust his betting about as far as I can throw a piano.

The voice in the back of my head say "99". Hope it wasn't like that for you. Or does "bugging me" mean you have folder's remorse and don't know?

[That guy]

suck it up and call the river. you are probably beat but doesn't villain have some hands you beat (AT KT JJ 99) some percentage of the time that approximates the odds you are getting here... folding for 1 more on the river has to be more clear cut than this in my view... folding the turn is probably better than folding the river.

[Hoi Polloi]

This is what they invented crying calls for.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
but doesn't villain have some hands you beat (AT KT JJ 99)

[/ QUOTE ]
99 is the second nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
folding the turn is probably better than folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely not. He had a great chance to draw his way out of trouble, especially versus two pair. Instead the river is a terrible card that completes the OESD and also may have hit 86/76.

But he still needs to call. This could easily be a single pair applying pressure.

[That guy]

He had a great chance to draw his way out of trouble, especially versus two pair.

'especially'? only vs 2 pair. he has a very meager 2 outs vs a set and dead vs a straight. I don't think villain is eliminating other players on a semi-bluff draw... he would want to keep these players, not lose them.

with AA, I think calling the turn obligates you to call the river (with AA, not always). so, you are paying 2 big bets here and probably drawing thin, if not dead.
don't get me wrong, I call the turn raise and the river unimproved. but I think calling the turn and folding the river is worse than just folding the turn.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
He had a great chance to draw his way out of trouble, especially versus two pair.

'especially'? only vs 2 pair. he has a very meager 2 outs vs a set and dead vs a straight. I don't think villain is eliminating other players on a semi-bluff draw... he would want to keep these players, not lose them.

with AA, I think calling the turn obligates you to call the river (with AA, not always). so, you are paying 2 big bets here and probably drawing thin, if not dead.
don't get me wrong, I call the turn raise and the river unimproved. but I think calling the turn and folding the river is worse than just folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he wants to keep the other player in, he would not c/r the turn and face him with 2 cold. So you logic seems back words here. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I don't think folding the river is bad. I don't think it is good either. Hence, "A hand that is bugging me".........