Spanish 21

[ACWhale]

Hi all-

Does anybody out there know about any good counting systems for spanish 21? I don't think its feasible to start at -32 for an 8 deck shoe (as if doing a hi lo blackjack count) and count back to 0, because it will be positive EV for the player before hitting 0 due to favorable rules. For instance if you have a -4 running count with 3 decks left, you should probably bet even though there are still more low cards than tens and aces. The problem is how much to bet. Ideally, I would like to spread my bets 1-8. I've thought of a couple solutions:

1. Start at 0 and count normally, but subtract the breakeven true count from the true (I estimate this at between 1 and 2 true count units based on Sanford Wong's .5% EV per count figure)

2. Eliminate 2's from the count entirely. I am not sure whether they have more or less relative value for the house than in blackjack, but they are definitely the least dangerous low card to be left in the shoe.

The goal of creating a counting system is making an easy multiplier for betting purposes. For instance, doubling the minimum bet on a true count of 2.

Any thoughts on spanish would be appreciated.

Thank you,

-ACWhale

[Iceman]

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Does anybody out there know about any good counting systems for spanish 21?

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In regular blackjack, it's very clear that high cards favor the player and low cards favor the dealer, and that when the shoe is biased enough towards high cards the player has the advantage. If the player can bet enough during favorable counts to more than offset his losses during unfavorable counts, then he can have an advantage in the game overall. Wonging or getting up during negative counts make this a lot easier if you can get away with them.

In Spanish 21, fours, fives, and sixes aren't as bad as in regular blackjack, since you can double after splits (like 6-5 or 7-4) or on any number of cards (when you get something like 3-3-5 or 2-3-6), since there are bonuses on 21s made up of five or more cards, and since you can rescue a double down that gets a low card to make a stiff against a good upcard. A shoe full of high cards is not as good as in regular blackjack, since in Spanish you normally hit 12 and 13 against low upcards, and since it prevents you from taking advantage of the Spanish 21 options and bonuses listed above. Given that the deck has a much smaller proportion of high cards to begin with, the chance of a really extreme distribution towards high cards that would bust the dealer very frequently is far lower than in regular blackjack. As a result, it's not clear that a strongly high count would give you the advantage, and even if it would, it might be so rare as to make the game unbeatable in practice.

[ACWhale]

Successful implementation of a counting strategy in Spanish would definitely require a lot of Wonging. I do believe that it is a beatable game based on the EV of basic strategy being about -.4%.

One major advantage Spanish has over regular blackjack is early surrender. Playing Spanish basic strategy, it is optimal to exercise the surrender option only against an ace with a 16 or 17. However, at higher counts, you could surrender a 15 against an ace or a 16 against a 10. This is a common situation and a clear advantage Spanish has.

An efficient playing/counting strategy would have index numbers for standing on 12 and 13 against dealer low cards. I realize that these rules and an index for double down surrender would be fairly complicated, but counting cards in Spanish is unheard of, and there would be no heat from the pit boss.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Successful implementation of a counting strategy in Spanish would definitely require a lot of Wonging. I do believe that it is a beatable game based on the EV of basic strategy being about -.4%.

One major advantage Spanish has over regular blackjack is early surrender. Playing Spanish basic strategy, it is optimal to exercise the surrender option only against an ace with a 16 or 17. However, at higher counts, you could surrender a 15 against an ace or a 16 against a 10. This is a common situation and a clear advantage Spanish has.

An efficient playing/counting strategy would have index numbers for standing on 12 and 13 against dealer low cards. I realize that these rules and an index for double down surrender would be fairly complicated, but counting cards in Spanish is unheard of, and there would be no heat from the pit boss.

[/ QUOTE ]

In regular blackjack, most of the advantage from card counting comes from betting variation, and only a small amount comes from playing variation. If you could use any counting system and make any plays you wanted but had to flat bet, you would only be about break even in a typical shoe game.

In Spanish 21, there are a few situations (whether or not to hit 12/13 against low upcards or to surrender on 15/16 against 10/A like you said) that a count would help you, but those are very close situations anyway except in extreme cases, and I doubt that it would make much of a difference. The problem is that I don't think there's much of a correlation at all between the count and the player advantage, so a few strategy changes wouldn't be enough to give a player the edge. Someone must have done simulations of this, but a few minutes of google searching hasn't turned up any.