"I am only a coinflip, so I fold"

[adanthar]

Hey guys,

I'm going to keep this post very short. Don't take it personally or anything; I've just seen a lot of this lately and it needs to end.

As I've posted a couple of times today, all existing poker calculators are a little bit misleading. A program like Pokerstove is nice for figuring out your odds of winning a given hand. However, it has nothing to do with what your edge actually is on that hand.

In addition to the odds of winning, your edge also consists of the chips in the pot. Over the last few weeks, I've seen countless posts ignoring that, which is a Very Bad Thing.

To briefly demonstrate how bad, suppose you open raise 99 in the CO to 300 in level 4 and are reraised all in by some guy with 1200. You think about it in your head and determine that against his likely range, you are a 45% underdog to win the hand. What is your edge on the hand? Counting the blinds, you're risking 900 to win 1650, putting in 35% of the pot.

Therefore, if you fold here, you are making a mistake approximately equal to folding QQ when you know the other guy has AKs. Make enough of these folds, and you are pretty screwed in the long term.

This has been a public service announcement from Postflop Play Inc.

[Degen]

And how much do you have left if you lose?

These are not cash games, it is not all about pot odds. If i don't have enuff left for a blind steal then, to me, i just lost the whole tourney.

Degen

[kyro]

That reminds me of something that happened today. (By the way, if you do not play on Fridays, you are passing up incredible EV, TERRIBLE players.)

Anyways, we're ITM, blinds 250/500. A guy raises to 1200 on the button. I min-reraise him (tricky I know) to 1900. He takes a lot of his time, says "I hate coinflips".....and folds.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
And how much do you have left if you lose?

These are not cash games, it is not all about pot odds. If i don't have enuff left for a blind steal then, to me, i just lost the whole tourney.

Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure he's meaning including cases where you would be calling all in. and to answer yes, when you're out of chips, you lose the whole tourny. as he pointed out, this error would be the same as saying "well he has AK and i have QQ and so i fold, because i don't want to be out of the tourny." so you don't use that kind of argumentation.

citanul

[pooh74]

This really comes down to the inflection point in an SNG where chip equity starts to be outweighed by ITM/cash equity ($EV). early on, you are making more plays based on pot odds, towards the bubble, yes, you cant think purely in terms of pot odds. Now survival is paramount and amassing chips for FE etc...

I think andathar's p[ost was referring to a post below in which level 4 hero had 99 in CO and said if he were to raise 3bbs it wouldnt be wise to call reraise (cant remember exactly vice versa maybe). All andathar is pointing out, is that when you factor in the range of hands of reraiser (overpairs and all ---bluffs too) and you surmise you are 50/50 or whatever, you are actually way beyond that and its a +EV call bc your raise is IN THE POT...basic right?

Degan, what you are saying is correct too...but I think with 5-6 players left these edges are worth it...maybe with 4 its not bc of the $ considerations that are not so distant anymore.

There are no bright line distinctions as to where pot odds take backseat to tourney life and how ECACTLY to balance these two...but its a matter of degree and not a bright line change.

[citanul]

but particularly if say, there's 8 people left with fairly even stacks, you shouldn't be giving up these edges.

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
And how much do you have left if you lose?

These are not cash games, it is not all about pot odds. If i don't have enuff left for a blind steal then, to me, i just lost the whole tourney.

Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

ive already argued this with adanthar, and found out that hes right, and you're wrong.

[AA suited]

arrgg.. i just gave up the habit of doing coin flips w/77 at lvl3 when NOT short stacked

so coin flips are good now??????

so confused /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[valenzuela]

Its not that coinflips are good its just that if u already have some money invested its usually a mistake folding. At least thats what I get.

[ilya]

I sure hope you had the goods.

[kyro]

whoops. guess stating that i had AA would have been nice.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
whoops. guess stating that i had AA would have been nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

on party, having AA means that you are an underdog. if you won, you actually defied the odds and lucked out

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whoops. guess stating that i had AA would have been nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

on party, having AA means that you are an underdog. if you won, you actually defied the odds and lucked out

[/ QUOTE ]

partypoker is rigged, grr..still min-raises complicate me too much.

[Degen]

"maybe with 4 its not bc of the $ considerations that are not so distant anymore"

Don't know about you but when i'm 5-6 handed with a couple of chips...i can taste the money, first place money. thats why i'd rather have my stack to throw around than watch some flop turn and river and pray for the best.

but to each his own i spose


Degen

[Degen]

"there's 8 people left"

Agreed

Degen

[Degen]

sometimes i think there is a high-limit SNG mafia that employs shills to come on this forum and post bad advice LOL

straight out of THFAP...if you are a player whose skill is less than that of the average of your opponents, you should be gleefully seeking out opportunities to flip coins in tournament poker. If you are a player whose skill is above the average of your your opponents...you should run like hell from any situation where you are letting the flip of a coin decide your tournament life.

Money in the pot or not, i'm not gonna flip a coin for my tourney if i have enuff chips left, if i fold, to wreak havoc on the blinds.


Degen

[Blarg]

I'm thinking the same thing lately. My blind stealing game has gotten far better, and I actually look forward to those exchanges, whereas I used to dread them. Partly for the fun of them, but also because I feel I have an advantage over people not used to that kind of aggressive play. So lasting things out until the blinds become important has shot up in value to me and gives me an advantage over some players, and if that's the case, allowing them to do coin flips with me is giving them back an advantage I should be happy to keep from them instead.

Additionally, relying on the pure math of a decision in isolation to the rest of the tourney leaves out another factor -- what sizes are the other stacks at the table? If you see small stacks at your table, especially if they're held by volatile players or the blinds are about to go up on them, you could be in very +EV situations quite soon; far greater than that of 99 vs. AKs. Those short stacks may throw off their chips to you, increasing your stack nicely, or just knock themselves out by desperate last-chance playing with their dwindling chips, leaving you in the money. Or close to it.

So we have to ask not just what's the true value of coin flips in a sort of general detached way over time, but what is their true value in the broader context of the particular SNG you're in at any particular moment. NPA Miller mentions something like this in his book when he discusses passing up some equity on the flop to establish greater equity on the turn, if I recall correctly. Basically, immediate value is just one measure of the ultimate value of any move. Sometimes giving up a small edge now to gain a greater one later will make you more money.

[Apathy]

SNGs and MTTs play a lot differently but even in MTTs you dont often pass up the kind of edges being discussed here, search for some of fossilmans old posts, he has talked a lot on this issue a while ago.

And please stop posting 5 posts in each thread its really pissing me off for some reason.

[Degen]

"Those short stacks may throw off their chips to you"

Exactly. It happense so often that I'm 4 handed with an equal, or even shorter stack, than the others. Then after two blind steals i have ~10-20% more chips and they seem to defer first place to me. I get to steal my arse off and the SB just starts giving me that too. Before I know it i have double 2nd stack...then i can double anybody up (should they pick up a hand) and still be looking good. I would have missed all of that had I called 10 hands before with my 44.

Just my two cents.

My hunch is that a lot of people share your (old) disdain for the blind steal game. I happen to love it, and always have. Nothing pumps me up more than being all in (correctly) on three tables at once, and waiting for everybody to fold.

Degen

[Degen]

what's his handle?


Degen


(skip my posts if u don't like it)

[niin]

Being a noob, can you explain where the 35% came from?

[Zaxenexaz]

[ QUOTE ]
Being a noob, can you explain where the 35% came from?

[/ QUOTE ]
900/2550

[citanul]

I think his handle is Greg (Fossilman) though the question has been asked, oh, 8 trillion times, so you could probably just use the search function like any other person. It really is in keeping with etiquette to not make a seperate post ever 30 seconds to reply to individual sentences from a post. You need to chillax some.

citanul

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't know about you but when i'm 5-6 handed with a couple of chips...i can taste the money, first place money. thats why i'd rather have my stack to throw around than watch some flop turn and river and pray for the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have two (really three) misconceptions. The first is that you can usually *get* a big enough stack to blind steal with impunity with a better than 55-45% shot. In fact, when you wind up with 500-600 chips at 75/150 or thereabouts - something far more likely to happen to you than me, since you play the 800 chip tourneys - you will almost always have to take an edge far less than that.

The second is that blind stealing is a greater than 55-45% edge by itself. Up until the end of the tourney, it's not. You will frequently be going all in with hands like K8o, J9s, 22, etc.; if your opponents call you with a bigger hand 33% of the time combined, your edge is lower. The advantage you have comes from having a bigger stack in the first place, which you can only get by taking decent gambles earlier.

The third is that you are that much more skillful than the competition. You're not. You may be 35% better than the average player (25% + rake) at your limit, but most of that edge comes from stupid early calls they make with two suited cards and K9o. Once you get into level 4-5, your edge shrinks. Passing up a 52/48 edge here is not that bad, but 10% is far too much.

PS: Anyone who 'never raises AK from the small blind' and then bluffs into 3 people on a QJx flop is not even close to that good.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
PS: Anyone who 'never raises AK from the small blind' and then bluffs into 3 people on a QJx flop is not even close to that good.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey hey hey there now, to be fair he said "i never raise AK out of the sb here, but IF I DID i would" bluff for a good chunk of chips into 3 people on a QTx flop."

citanul

[Wu36]

MLG and Sirio11 had a pretty good debate on passing up small edges in favor of survival in the MTT forum, I'll dig up some threads later on.

[valenzuela]

but thats a MTT...in a SNG u have to fold small edges OOTM.

[Wu36]

How small of an edge? 55-45 is a pretty decent edge IMO and 60/40 is certainly significant.
couple threads that may or may not be relevant.
One (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=1977087&Forum =f9&Words=%2B"edges"&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=1975084&Search=true&wh ere=bodysub&Name=12050&daterange=1&newerval=&newer type=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post1977087)
Two (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1728786&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1)
Three (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1848722&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1)

[Degen]

lol i think i'm gonna give up on getting love from this forum and just keep sending massive shipments over to my Ameritrade account


whatevers


Degen

[valenzuela]

I cant reply to wegen for some reason.

A 55/45 edge is not good enough in many cases, however 10 handed that edge is good enough. A 51/49 edge is clearly not good enough.