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Scuba Chuck
04-15-2005, 04:12 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t975)
Button (t1270)
SB (t925)
BB (t1150)
UTG (t970)
UTG+1 (t940)
MP1 (t915)
MP2 (t985)
MP3 (t1870)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t85, MP2 folds.

Flop: (t240) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t840 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...

I guess my thoughts are that my edge is gone. Let's assume he has A /images/graemlins/heart.gif (for a moment - I know I have the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif). What hand range do you put villain on.

The reason I'm asking is because I now think my edge is gone. I am likely a coinflip at this stage. What are your thoughts on folding?

I have plenty of remaining chips to play and find a better spot.

David100
04-15-2005, 04:13 PM
why a coin flip? Worst scenario he has the heart, u r nearly 60% favorite. I would go in most times without any hesitation. Quite often he won't have that card. definite positive EV for going all in.
David

Scuba Chuck
04-15-2005, 04:25 PM
By the way, the following hand happened to me just 45 minutes earlier, so this has been on my mind...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t1050)
MP2 (t890)
MP3 (t790)
CO (t775)
Hero (t770)
SB (t650)
BB (t800)
UTG (t700)
UTG+1 (t710)
UTG+2 (t865)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t50</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t125</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t75.

Flop: (t302.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t250</font>, Hero pushes allin, MP1 calls.

Turn: (t947.50) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t947.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

In this hand, villain had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I ran pokerstove to see where I stood based on the flop, and it said (even though I have the best hand right now) that I am only a 52% favorite to win this hand.

That's what got me thinking about the current hand...

David100
04-15-2005, 04:29 PM
Here i think why has he gone all in? How has he played up to this point? Would he have the nut flush and trying to make himself look weak by going all in?

Personally if i had the nut flush i would not push all in at this stage. Loks like he is drawing or perhaps has AT.

Also a possiblility he has a set and wants any hearts to leave.

I think he most likely has AT. (the 10 could give him 2 more outs than i calculated in the previous post which makes it a 50-50 at worst)

David

What did you put him on and why?

David

Scuba Chuck
04-15-2005, 04:33 PM
I guess in retrospect, a bet of t300 should have been enough. I would still have trouble if he reraised me allin.

Phil Van Sexton
04-15-2005, 04:37 PM
Other than TT, I dont see what you are worried about. Hell, you even have the Kh.

adanthar
04-15-2005, 04:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I ran pokerstove to see where I stood based on the flop, and it said (even though I have the best hand right now) that I am only a 52% favorite to win this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares? The thing about poker calculators is that they never add in the dead money.

You push in this hand, and given the other guy's likely cards, you call the push in that one.

The Venetian
04-15-2005, 04:44 PM
I would call here. I believe there's a very good chance you have the best hand right now, and if you don't, you have some outs, unless he has AA with a heart. It's such a drastic play...enough so that I just don't think he could be all that strong.

I think it's much more likely that he has a set than a flush...his preflop smells like pocket pair more than Ax, but it could just be an overpair or heaven forbid, a bluff on a scare board.

Did you have any reads on the opponent or was it just too early?

SonicReducer
04-15-2005, 04:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
his preflop smells like pocket pair more than Ax, but it could just be an overpair or heaven forbid, a bluff on a scare board.

Did you have any reads on the opponent or was it just too early?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking too, pocket 10's might have been where he was, but unless you have some sort of read on him I would have probably folded it too.

Phoenix1010
04-15-2005, 05:07 PM
First off, even if he has top pair and the nut flush draw, you still have an edge. Including your small pot equity edge of being a slight favorite, there's an extra 200 chips of dead money in the pot. You do have a small edge here, what you need to decide is how big it is, and whether it's worth passing up. The best way to do this is to try to figure out your opponent's range of hands.

This is very player dependent. The biggest question here is whether your opponent will limp and then call a big raise with AhTx. Any other ace hand leaves you with a fairly large edge. The difference between this and the other hand you posted is that in the other hand, your opponent had a gutshot draw worth two more outs. The change from 13 outs to 11 outs brings you from a near coinflip to a 60/40 advantage, not counting dead money. If he might have AhTx, that should lean you slightly toward letting this one go.

I could also see a lot of players doing this with any AT, either because they're bad and they're trying to "protect their hand" or because they're tricky and they want to use the suited board to pressure you off your overpair (or missed AK with a heart), knowing they probably have a few outs if called if they're behind. The Ah is a small part of the permutations of AT especially since most players would be more likely to play ATs than ATo in that situation. If he has this hand without the Ah, you are a large favorite. If he might make this play with any AT, this should lean you toward calling.

Playing a high flopped flush like this is kind of silly, and I doubt he would have called that raise with low suited cards, so the chance of him having a flush already should be pretty low.

Your biggest worry should be TT. In fact, I'd say the way the hand was played should add some extra weight to this hand in the range that you put him on (although there are still far fewer permutations of TT than AT). But even if he has TT, you have 11 outs to catch up. With the extra money in there preflop, calling would not be -CEV.

There might also be a chance that the player is playing with just TPLK, or pocket jacks or something like that. That should factor into your decision as well since it WILL happen from time to time. All in all, given your opponent's probable range of hands, you're almost always ahead, and never far behind. I would call.

-Phoenix

The Yugoslavian
04-15-2005, 06:02 PM
You call. I don't see what the problem is here.

I suspect that this is more results-oriented thinking...I hope you didn't share what hand villian actually had later in this thread...that would be stupid.

Yugoslav