KTo - Good river fold?

[JoshuaD]

This is 100% readless. I had just sat down, I've seen the guys play 1 hand. (Neither did anything worthwhile in that hand).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds...

Good fold?

[Chairman Wood]

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure I see a bluff raise on a scare card more than 1 out of 9 times at 3/6.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so. I'm pretty sure I see a bluff raise on a scare card more than 1 out of 9 times at 3/6.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif was much scarier than the 5, he didn't raise that, and with my continued aggression and the caller between us I can't imagine someone bluff-raising here very often.

[Chairman Wood]

Me doos nat read to good

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so. I'm pretty sure I see a bluff raise on a scare card more than 1 out of 9 times at 3/6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bluff raise against better and caller? Maybe if the guy is getting down to his last few chips.

Stu

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Bluff raise against better and caller? Maybe if the guy is getting down to his last few chips.

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. He had a decent stack at the time, not nearing empty.

[mute]

Yeah, against 2 opponents I don't think your hand is good often enough.

[tipperdog]

I call for three primary reasons:

1. Against unknowns at 3/6, I lean toward calling in close situations.
2. Blah, blah, blah...pot size...only have be right 1 in 9 times...blah, blah, blah.
3. The raise looks suspicious. With a straight on the turn, it's a clear value raise to charge flush draws. With a flush on the turn it's also a clear raise for all the reasons everyone knows (again, we see slowplayed flushes all the time, but it's a boneheaded play in this situation). Now, if he doesn't have a straight or a flush, would he raise something like A5 here? I doubt it, given the dangerous looking board.

So yeah, I call. I expect to lose, but I call.

[einbert]

Good fold.

[ckessel]

I'll probably be lambasted, but the turn card is terrible for you. You lose to a flush or a straight and anyone that called with JTs or T9s. Just too many ways to lose and cards that make it even worse to come on the river.

I check/fold the turn. Seriously. Let the lambasting begin. There's big chance your drawing dead at a relatively small pot and even if you're not dead, there's so many bad cards that can come on the river. 5,6,7,8,9,J,Q,A and any diamond, that's some 30 or so cards, nearly 2/3 the remaining deck. Is it worth spending 2BB more to fight for a 3.5BB pot?

I think you'd need a lot more pot equity than you have to even call at the turn.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No lambasting here.... I'm in utter shock.


Adam

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/fold the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

If you figure out the percentage of time you're drawing dead, compared to the percentage of the time that you have the best hand, you're a huge favorite at this point to still be ahead.

Bet and let them pay you off with a worse kicker/middle pair/ a high diamond (which is definitely calling here). If one raises then you probably are drawing slim and can usually fold, depending on the pot odds you're getting.

[adamstewart]

I think this is a good disciplined fold on your part.


My only question is whether or not you're good here more than 8% of the time (1 in 12.5). Probably not, but then again, Harrington says they're bluffing at least 10% of the time. Overall, I don't think there's much difference in EV one way or the other.


FWIW, Ed Miller would probably call. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Adam

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
My only question is whether or not you're good here more than 8% of the time (1 in 12.5). Probably not, but then again, Harrington says they're bluffing at least 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you can pretty much discount the possibility that this guy is on a bluff because the BB has already called your bet and it is VERY rare that LP will raise and you both will fold.

Also, the average player is certainly not raising any worse hand than yours on this board for value. He simply has a better hand than yours, IMO.

If the pot were about twice as big I would start considering a call.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you can pretty much discount the possibility that this guy is on a bluff because the BB has already called your bet and it is VERY rare that LP will raise and you both will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


an important point.... yes, this is definitely a fold.


Adam

[ckessel]

With 2 people passively calling the flop I'm putting one or both of them on a draw. That 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes both. Neither raised the turn, which is a little odd, but a flush may easily wait until the river to raise (which happened) and a straight is going to be cautious due to the flush.

Normally I'm pretty aggressive with top pair on the turn and maybe I'd bet this and fold to a raise. But I just keep looking at that tiny pot and wondering if I really feel I'm going to win this enough to make it worthwhile.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll probably be lambasted, but the turn card is terrible for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll start the lambasting. You are ahead of a wide variety of hands that will call here: JT, QT, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifx, etc. You cannot conclude from two flop calls that your opponents are drawing. They may simply have pairs they're not too excited about.

The worst part about checking is that you give free cards to a wide variety of drawing hands. Right now, you're ahead of any stray diamond, and a multitude of straight draws. Giving a free card in this situation is crazy.

Now, you could make a very strong argument for betting the turn and folding if raised, but check-folding is way too weak.

[ QUOTE ]

you lose to a flush or a straight and anyone that called with JTs or T9s.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you are ahead of any JTs and QTs. That's precisely why you need to bet.

[Tiamat]

So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

you were aggressive the entire hand with bets. To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands. you do not know these players at all. To fold for one more bet on the river here is a bit weak IMO. Yes there is a caller and a logical player will not bluff into a bettor and a caller, but most small stakes players are NOT logical and try bluffs and raises with all types of strange holdings. It was one bet back to you, I know I can not be over 90% sure here on a hand read, you will probably lose but its worth a call.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

you were aggressive the entire hand with bets. To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands. you do not know these players at all. To fold for one more bet on the river here is a bit weak IMO. Yes there is a caller and a logical player will not bluff into a bettor and a caller, but most small stakes players are NOT logical and try bluffs and raises with all types of strange holdings. It was one bet back to you, I know I can not be over 90% sure here on a hand read, you will probably lose but its worth a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm saying that I doubt Hero is good more than 1 in 12.5 times here (considering all that has already been mentioned). Therefore, calling would be -EV.

Yes, "Hero was aggressive the entire hand thus far." AND YET HE'S STILL BEING RAISED! More reason to fold.

Am I worried that people will notice and start to take shots at me? No. I don't usually fold for 1 bet on the river, so I'm not setting any sort of trend by folding this one particular hand....


I think you're misapplying some of the concepts you're read in those "books" you mentioned in a previous thread ....


FWIW, I said in my previous response that this was a CLOSE decision. But I lean towards folding.

Adam

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really need to think about the percentage of the time that all these events line up. Yes, it will happen. But will it happen one time in twelve? Not in my opinion. Maybe one time in twenty-five, or thirty. Seriously, think about this mathematically and try to figure out exactly how big the pot would be for you to call this bet profitably.

[ QUOTE ]
To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is why we don't fold for one bet on the river in a big pot heads up. If they want to try a ridiculous bluff in a protected pot (and in a pot that's not even huge), then I'm not going to play the sheriff. The other guy can (and usually will) call them down, and often with a worse hand than mine!

[ckessel]

Whoops, mean 9Ts and 89s.

Yea, I'm reasonably convinced you're right. Bet the turn and fold to a raise. The big thing to me here is pot size isn't really worth fighting strongly for. I'm not sure you're even going to win 1/3 of the hands at this point, so I don't see betting as for value either. If you're dead, no draw helps. If you're ahead then any 4-flush or 4-straight is a loser, and maybe any ace, so a bit over 1/3 of the cards. Are the odds of being ahead at the turn and not falling behind on the river better than the 33% you'd need to value bet? You'd need to be ahead at the turn more than 50%, I'm just not sure that's the case. But I suppose if it's close, error on the side of betting out the turn.

[Tiamat]

They do try outragouse bluffs in protected pots though in small games. You have top pair, You know nothing about your opponents. The pot is laying over 10-1 to call, so you need only win about 9% of the time to make a call profitable. therefore you have to be approx 91% sure of your read to fold here (and nobody is that good). He said he just sat down at the table and did not know the opponent. Will he lose, probably, but he will win 9% of the time though against most small stakes players. The pot justifies a call here. In limit holdem you frequently have to make these calls to save pots (on the river, other streets are a different story). He will lose but I doubt he will lose 9 times outta 10 makeing this call here against small stakes players.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying over 10-1 to call, so you need only win about 9% of the time to make a call profitable. therefore you have to be approx 91% sure of your read to fold here (and nobody is that good).

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed, many people are this good.