VP$IP's and running

[smacksoup]

im VP$IP approx. 29 through 20k hands, almost exclusively Party 5-10 (6 max), and right now i'm pulling about 3.94BB/100. Is this VP$IP standard for 6 max play, or should i tone it down or up a little. I've also noticed, after reading a recent post, that my VP$IP for UTG and UTG+1 are 22 and 23, respectively. are THESE high?

In general opinions, can higher than 'acceptable' VP$IP's work in the long run (if mine is in fact high) or am I just running well? I'd prefer to know sooner, rather than later, because my roommate played 5-10 and 10-20 both 6 max with a VP$IP around 45. He had an enormous win rate for about 30 or 40k, and then lost his whole bankroll in about a month.

smack

[Joe826]

If you're consistenly winning 4 BB / 100 hands then you should be very careful not to change anything heh. That's awesome.

[Perseus]

Be careful. 20k is statistically almost meaningless at 6-max. Look for Schieds graph on his breaking even for like 30k some odd hands.

Otherwise...awsome job. What are your PFR and Aggro numbers?

[stigmata]

It does sound high, but if it ain't broken.....

There does seem to be anecdotal evidence that a very LAG style can be very profitable at the 6 max, but nobody seems to be able to provide any solid evidence or sound theory. Perhaps you could be the one... /images/graemlins/cool.gif

"with a VP$IP around 45. He had an enormous win rate for about 30 or 40k, and then lost his whole bankroll in about a month."

I have heard this story several times.

[smacksoup]

pfr = 10.21... aaaand i dont know how to get the aggro numbers. im rather new to this whole collecting and analyzing stats with poker (im actually rather new to poker in general) so, maybe a little help with aggro numbers?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
pfr = 10.21... aaaand i dont know how to get the aggro numbers. im rather new to this whole collecting and analyzing stats with poker (im actually rather new to poker in general) so, maybe a little help with aggro numbers?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a pretty low PFR% . . . but hey, you're winning, for the moment.

[RunDownHouse]

I'm pretty convinced a higher VP$IP than what is usually regarded as "optimal" around here can be very profitable. I'm just naturally tight and my postflop play isn't that great, so I can't try it out myself, and nobody else seems to be able to provide any solid evidence.

Also important to consider is how many of those 20K hands have come from tables with less than 6 players. Obviously, if you've got a lot of 3- or 4-handed play, your VP$IP is going to be higher. Care to break down your VP$IP by players at the table?

Other than that... don't change a thing you're doing and come back in 30-40K hands. You're doing well so far.

[krishanleong]

You are running hot. I think your going to experience the negative side of variance reasonably soon. I'm 95% certain that you can't play 20% of your hands UTG profitably. Your PFR% stinks. I'd look at your run of cards as a gift from the random void. Use that gift to get better. (Keep playing post hands and read everything)

I don't see why everyone says keep doing what you are doing. You have holes in your games. Win rates mean nothing. Keep trying to improve.

Krishan

[smacksoup]

i dont have enough hands for smaller tables to give good numbers, but here they are. HU = 41.47. 3-Handed = 39.55. 4-Handed = 33.23. 5-Handed = 28.49. 6-Handed = 26.46. About half the total hands are 6-handed. And 15k are either 5 or 6 handed.

[smacksoup]

pfr = low? or what? 'stinks' is negative but not in the slightest constructive.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
You are running hot.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Win rates mean nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're implying that, given his other stats, his winrate can't be sustained, and so he needs to ignore his success and concentrate on other things. But that implication is far from being established or acknowledged fact, and I would encourage him not to change a thing (well, his pfr is pretty low, but whatever) and come back when he's got some more hands, so that we can have a discussion grounded more in mathematics than supposition and bias.

FWIW, I wish we could magically delete stat/winrate posts that have both winrate and hands < 50K. It gets a bit tiresome.

[stigmata]

Your 6 handed VPIP looks about normal, very slighly loose perhaps but nothing to worry about.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
im VP$IP approx. 29 through 20k hands, almost exclusively Party 5-10 (6 max), and right now i'm pulling about 3.94BB/100. Is this VP$IP standard for 6 max play, or should i tone it down or up a little. I've also noticed, after reading a recent post, that my VP$IP for UTG and UTG+1 are 22 and 23, respectively. are THESE high

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, just keep doing what you're doing. You might just be on the good side of variance, but then again you might be able to maintain that winrate. There is really no way to tell until you get many more hands.

Bottom line, I would keep playing as you are and address leaks as they appear. Constant reevaluation rinse and repeat...

___1___

[krishanleong]

Incredibly low. Most players work with 16% minimum.

Part of what makes LAG images work is the ability to run the table over. You are limping a good deal UTG. I don't see how you can play some of the hands you must be playing UTG profitably.

You don't actually have LAG stats. You would rate a little loose passive mostly.

Krishan

[Grisgra]

Looser than average on these boards, but as that VP$IP is for all hands, not just 6-handed, I think it's actually very close to optimum.

The low PFR is probably costing him a little money, but given the nature of the 5/10 game, maybe he can get away with said open-limping with proper postflop play.

[stigmata]

I think his UTG stats are contaminated with all the HU and short games. The major thing is the low pfr.

[smacksoup]

i think the hands i may be missing raises on are hands such as A8s on the button when MP or UTG limps. Is this an auto-raise? I almost always limp on this, and when i raise, i feel like im tilting, that's how guilty i feel. What about k10s on the button with a limper? this is another situation in which i limp most of the time.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're implying that, given his other stats, his winrate can't be sustained, and so he needs to ignore his success and concentrate on other things. But that implication is far from being established or acknowledged fact, and I would encourage him not to change a thing (well, his pfr is pretty low, but whatever)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree VP$IP isn't established and his 6 max stats look closer to normal but still loose. The thing is his PFR is not good. A Nikla style VP$IP of 26% relies on a steal rate above 40%. A LAG image also has to be sustained by perfect postflop play. OP is loose passive preflop.

The worse part of the post is his VP$IP UTG of 20%. If it's possible to squeeze value out of the last 6% of UTG by limping (I'm assuming he limps but it seems likely) then I would be extremely suprised.

I'm by no means a pro at 5/10 but if someone told be they could limp AXs UTG profitably over a small sample I'd tell them it's variance and those hands are longterm losers. I feel okay telling them that because I played them UTG for 200K hands and together small AX cost about .25 BB/hand. I think some of the content in this post is similiar to this situation. Kiddo, Strip and others I'm sure have tried to push the VP$IP limit UTG. From a poker theory perspective I can see 20% being correct.

Even Victors post a while ago that everyone got so excited about made me laugh a bit. His VP$IP from the BB was suboptimal from a poker theory perspective. I thought it was clear that he was running hot then.

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I wish we could magically delete stat/winrate posts that have both winrate and hands < 50K. It gets a bit tiresome.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love this too.

Krishan

[wuarhg]

Gay also means...

Merry; gleeful; blithe; airy; lively; sprightly, sportive; light-hearted; frolicsome; jolly; jovial; joyous; joyful; glad; showy; splendid; vivacious.
[1913 Webster]

So it can be an "airy" bet, because sometimes the geniuses behind the bet are complete airheads? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Or maybe it is sportive, challenging you? I dunno /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[krishanleong]

I can only guess this is in the wrong thread.

Krishan

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the hands i may be missing raises on are hands such as A8s on the button when MP or UTG limps. Is this an auto-raise? I almost always limp on this, and when i raise, i feel like im tilting, that's how guilty i feel. What about k10s on the button with a limper? this is another situation in which i limp most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these are both raises, especially if UTG or MP is a loose, bad player.

[wuarhg]

Uh, I think you might be right ...

[arkady]

excel is that you? this looks like another disguised "is higher VPIP better" post?

i am apologizing in advance, don't mean to insult legit posters.

also your roommate's VPIP is a joke.

[Silverback]

How many tables do you play at a time?

If more then one then your doing very well. Just carry on what your doing.

Your win rate is top notch,

Theres no one way to play this game, playing differently preflop as some posters recommend may make you your post flop play different,

I agree with those that say if it aint broke dont fix it,

That may change if you move up limits, as you do obviously limp, and how you react to the added aggression at $10/$20 may cause you problems,

Theres always going to be questions over certain hands to play and how, thats why we are all here.

[smacksoup]

im playing 2 or 3 tables at any given time. the 20k hands is over a mediocre period of time... ive really only been playing poker since early january

[mperich]

My utg vpip is slightly over 21% atm. Altho, fwiw, I do think i could remove a hand or 2, but I think 20% is close to optimal UTG.

-Mike

[wuarhg]

[ QUOTE ]
My utg vpip is slightly over 21% atm. Altho, fwiw, I do think i could remove a hand or 2, but I think 20% is close to optimal UTG.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you limp UTG at all? And don't you often get 3-bet, how do you handle these situations?

[mperich]

Im 21.5/21.2 from UTG, so no I almost never limp. On some tables I start to get 3bet a bit, in which case I either a) tone it down for awhile or b) find out whos raising light and respond accordingly, usually with more ace hi calldowns etc from first positions on non threatening boards.

-Mike

[Silverback]

Your results are great then at 2-3 tables.

Sounds like you havent had a decent downswing, so that might change things a bit, but If I were you Id carry on and only make very minor changes to your game, make changes slowly, and look at your current hands stats in pokertarcker

You know you should be raising more, and over time, depending on how certain hands are performing for you, start either cutting them out or raising with them, some hands I feel are ok to limp, if you easy fold them when you miss the flop, however when you start raising with them you feel more married to them and end up losing more with them, these are the hands you either fold pre flop or raise instead of your current limping to much.

If you make big changes to your game, and start raising alot more, and this coinsides with a couple of bad cards sessions, it can screw your game up,

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I wish we could magically delete stat/winrate posts that have both winrate and hands < 50K. It gets a bit tiresome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although win rates are not reliable over low sample sizes, some statistics are quite close to their true values after very few hands (PFR and VPIP for instance). If posters are truly looking for help, I think it is important not to disregard their stats posts just because they haven't played enough hands. Responses to my stats posts have saved me a TON of time and pain. I am grateful to everyone that has helped me along the way more than you can possibly imagine. It is amazing the impact that these posts can have on a player's success or failure.

Cartman

[Transference]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're implying that, given his other stats, his winrate can't be sustained, and so he needs to ignore his success and concentrate on other things. But that implication is far from being established or acknowledged fact, and I would encourage him not to change a thing (well, his pfr is pretty low, but whatever) and come back when he's got some more hands, so that we can have a discussion grounded more in mathematics than supposition and bias.

FWIW, I wish we could magically delete stat/winrate posts that have both winrate and hands < 50K. It gets a bit tiresome.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is what I'm going to call the fundamental winrate attribution error. Two major errors come to mind with developing hypothesis along these lines.

The first is obvious. Its a clear error to assume that winrate over 20k hands is even a plausible estimate. If its not broken don't fix it does not apply. It might be broken, it might not, it simply cannot be determined.

The second is a little more insidious but seems just as problematic. A single statistic, or two, or five cannot by themselves explain winrate. There are multiple relationships that interact. You need to adjust your postflop play to accommodate your preflop play. Not only that, but often optimal play is situational. Table image and adaptation simply play a much larger role in shorthanded play. Therefore range may be just as significant as average or is at least crucial in understanding average.

I think the reason why the OP's success is being offhandedly dismissed by so many posters is that he seems clear that he lacks a grasp of all these dynamics.

The question of whether there is an optimal preflop strategy assumes an optimal postflop strategy and is probably not static. Even if you had say a dozen samples of over 500k hands to compare VPIP with, whatever number you derive is till going to be pretty worthless in a short term situational context.

Does that mean that stats are worthless? No, they provide utility by identifying extremes. We can say that 45% VPIP is definitely too loose, and 15% to tight. IMO we cannot employ this same solution for determining an optimum playing style.

[JohnnyHumongous]

29% VPIP is not very high at all for 6-max...