Postflop questions [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

party36master

04-15-2005, 08:09 AM

MP1 was 61/5 over 30 hands.
Do you think the flop call was weak? MP1 could have almost anything.

What about the turn raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (9.16 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

PokerBob

04-15-2005, 08:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 was 61/5 over 30 hands.
Do you think the flop call was weak? MP1 could have almost anything.

What about the turn raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (9.16 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

With this kind of vpip, he looks the kind of dummy who plays any ace. IMO you have maybe 3-4 outs on the flop, as when he leads the flop, he may very well have you reverse dominated or worse, a queen. I think you fold the flop.

Piiop

04-15-2005, 08:31 AM

Can he really have anything on the flop? Does he frequently bet out with nothing or weak draws/low pairs? If so, I like a raise better than a call. I'd rather get it headsup with him and force out UTG+1.

Turn and river looks fine.

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 09:50 AM

Fold the flop.

Do you see why? If not, I'll explain.

Adam

Piiop

04-15-2005, 09:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on this players postflop tendencies, this could be pretty terrible.

Trix

04-15-2005, 10:00 AM

explain

pokerjunky

04-15-2005, 10:01 AM

Well, the pot is pretty small....

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on this players postflop tendencies, this could be pretty terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perahps, but... this player's postflop tendencies are unknown. All we know is that he plays more than half his hands and only raises 5% preflop.

If I'm going to lean one way or the other, the villain's 5% PFR suggests that he isn't overly aggressive. Therefore, we should give some credit to his flop bet (especially leading into a preflop raiser).

By my calculations, calling the flop is NEUTRAL EV at best.

Adam

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 10:05 AM

...further to my above post:

Give about 2.5 outs for three aces. Give 1.5 outs for backdoor flush draw. Give 1 out for hitting a ten.

That's about 5 outs. Getting 8:1 money is NEUTRAL EV. (Further Hero isn't even closing the action. Even getting 9:1 if UTG+1 calls isn't enough, but getting check-raised by him would suck).

We also have the reverse implied odds of hitting a Ten and losing still.

Adam

Tiamat

04-15-2005, 10:30 AM

This is a fold or raise situation. A call is not the correct play on the flop. As mentioned above its about a 4.5-5 out hand value here. You break just about even getting 8-1. A call here though does not protect your over card outs. You have a weak draw that plays best heads up. Since its a raised pot preflop I would prefer not folding therefore I think you should raise the flop, knock out the player behind you and play heads up. This could also buy you a free card on the turn if you want it.

Piiop

04-15-2005, 10:33 AM

I think you're discounting outs too much and giving the villain too much credit.

However, this is very player dependant.

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 10:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold or raise situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see merits for calling as well.

[ QUOTE ]
A call here though does not protect your over card outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about?

[ QUOTE ]
You have a weak draw that plays best heads up

[/ QUOTE ]

"Draws" rarely play well heads up.

[ QUOTE ]
Since its a raised pot preflop I would prefer not folding

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make sense.

Welcome to the forums! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Adam

chief444

04-15-2005, 10:53 AM

I see these types of opponents bet draws into preflop raisers all the time. I'm not saying that is the case here. I'm not saying a fold isn't best. But if you're looking at the calculations I think you need to assign some amount of equity to the chance that hero actually has the best hand at the moment. I don't think it would be much but it is something to be considered if looking at the math.

Tiamat

04-15-2005, 11:06 AM

by " weak draw" I refer to the strength of your hand. Every hand has both drawing and "made hand" value. In this instance he was "drawing" to top pair or a very small chance BD flush (if i remember the hand correctly). Top pair does not play well against mult opponents. ITs best to play this hand heads up so if you do spike a pair you maximize your chance to win the hand. On the turn and river if you donot hit a pair any pair beats up so by not raiseing on the flop you let the player behind you play for a "cheap card" giveing the player behind you 9-1 odds to draw is favorable for even a 4 outter with implied odds. by raising you crush his odds makeing his call a much tougher decision. That is what I meen by protecting your hand. You crush your opponents odds putting those behind you yet to act into lose lose situations.

A raised put this pot to 8SB. since My hand is worth about 4.5 outs (.5 outs each per overcard and about 1.5 outs for the BD flush draw) I have just enough pot odds to take one off. Therefore I would rather not fold. Raising accomplishes the protect I mentioned above, Get me heads up so if i spike a pair I maximize my chance to win. Poker rewards aggressive play. A call on the flop here is weak. do not let players in cheaply behind! always protect your hand. now this does not mean you should never call on the flop, but those situations are VERY rare in small stakes games. remember most players in these games are terrable. they are weak tight at best. Play tight and aggressive.

If your still unsure about what im talking about pick up a few poker books, both on theory and proper strategy. Alot of the books by the players who run this website are excellent sources of proper play.

And no I do not work for them /images/graemlins/wink.gif I have however read almost every book they have and have been playing poker for about 10 years, from limits 1/2 to 15/30. Im going on a tangent though. Hope my explanation helps /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Have a good one!

FoodForThought

04-15-2005, 11:23 AM

I don't like the raise preflop. You didn't give any information on UTG+1 and 61/5 for 30 hands for MP1 is really not a lot of info.....30 hands is just too small (you should include aggression factors too). I limp preflop and fold to a flop bet. If just MP1 limped, I would raise with ATo...but not with two limpers.

mack848

04-15-2005, 11:31 AM

I think this is a clear preflop raise, unless UTG+1 is very tight passive. I am sure the OP would have mentioned if this was the case.

cassady

04-15-2005, 11:42 AM

The problem with many poster's reliance on poker tracker is that things like "65/5" seems to have become a read. This is fine for assigning a larger number of preflop hands, but completely useless for analysing post flop play.

If he's a loose-passive calling station, leading the betting into the preflop raiser says he's got the top pair (at least). This totally discounts your tens as outs, leaving you maybe three for the aces and 1.5 for the backdoor flush.

If he's a loose-agressive player (in my opinion less likely given his low preflop raise, but you never know) this is an easy call, or perhaps a raise.

But in any event, no, I don't think adam is discounting his outs too much. But this is just a guess, without any better information on the opponent here.

FoodForThought

04-15-2005, 11:58 AM

CLEAR preflop raise? It certainly is an option...but, it's borderline. I guess AJ is the cutoff for me in that spot with little information. SSH suggests AJ in loose games and AT in tight games.................

Tiamat

04-15-2005, 11:59 AM

Against most small stakes players the raise preflop is not a bad choice. Your EV here is very close betwen raiseing and calling (again depending on the play style of your opponents here with ATo) If you do not have any knowlege in this particular instance, since its a small stakes games with alot of loose players a raise here is not a bad choice. As I said above though your expecation and pot equity are hair in the green here either way. you could push the small edge with a raise against the majority of loose players these games have.

haveing more info about your opponents here of course could help you a bit. Like mentioned above if someone is tight passive and limps in you may not want to raise here. There is no clear cut answer with ATo in middle position with two limpers. I prefer the aggressive approach though if you do not have any knowledge about your opponents in small stakes games. Push your edge.

Redeye

04-15-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's about 5 outs. Getting 8:1 money is NEUTRAL EV. (Further Hero isn't even closing the action. Even getting 9:1 if UTG+1 calls isn't enough, but getting check-raised by him would suck).

[/ QUOTE ]

So we won't make any more bets if we actually draw to the best hand? I agree that without either a good read on UTG+1 (that he won't raise) or without closing the action the call here is probably pretty marginal. If I was closing the action getting a little over 8:1 this would be a pretty easy call here. If villian showed me something like Q9o I would call in a hearbeat getting 8:1 with 3 ace outs and 2 outs to the BD flush. Implied odds on hitting my hand would give me the profit to make this call +EV.

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If your still unsure about what im talking about pick up a few poker books, both on theory and proper strategy. Alot of the books by the players who run this website are excellent sources of proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gee, thanks.

I'll have to check out these books you speak of....

Adam

party36master

04-15-2005, 09:41 PM

Thanks for all the comments.
I didn't get a clear read, other than a recall that he plays junk. If you can get a solid postflop read on everyone at the table while 4 tabling, more power to you.
I considered the flop play between calling and folding a real toss-up. I had also valued my hand at 4.5 outs. I don't think that raising to buy outs is right here; I'm not sure the pot is big enough, and given the pot, I can't see investing more money unless I get a favorable turn.

By the way, I was reverse dominated, AJ, although when I hit two pair, MHIG.