find me a the tables

[Victor]

im always playing. i give away 1bb/100. find me. follow me around. help me rid myself of this bankroll so i dont have to play this stupid game anymore. party is rigged. the games are dry. bots are everywhere. mikel is right, poker is a farce.

[mperich]

Party ID?

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Mike

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
im always playing. i give away 1bb/100. find me. follow me around. help me rid myself of this bankroll so i dont have to play this stupid game anymore. party is rigged. the games are dry. bots are everywhere. mikel is right, poker is a farce

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you beat me to this post. I think I'm in the same damn situation and it sucks.

[Victor]

20k hands

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
Party ID?



[/ QUOTE ]

good idea. i have been playing under poonriver recently. i dont think i had winning session since. now you guys can reply about how bad i am. maybe i can learn something this way.

[mperich]

What limit you playin Vic? Not that i actually wanna follow you around =P Just curious,

-Mike

[cartman]

Here are my notes on poonriver:

"lots of pf 3-betting. 3-bet pf w KQ then bet a Q hi flop and CRd the turn."

I haven't played much with you because I like to be the only ringmaster at my circus. Therefore I usually leave if there is another player who does a lot of preflop raising, double that if he does alot of 3-betting. Maybe you took the KQ line against me because I am aggressive, but I don't like it as a default play. I think continuing to bet would be better with this hand. I could be wrong. Just my .02.

Cartman

[Victor]

thanks for the assessment.

i think i remember this hand.

i dont generally 3bet kq but maybe you were getting frisky and i noticed you opening with sub hands.

as far as going for a turn checkraise with top pair, thats not my default line either but i do that against aggro players that are seemingly relentless. i think it is a good line in these situations.

or maybe i was just drunk, on tilt, and spewing chips.

[arkady]

since when are you having so many problems. thought i recalled a PT screen from you where over 50k hands u were smacking the game around for 2bb+ / 100.

maybe it wasn't you...i dont remember now.

but if ur having a 20k breakeven streak, lol, i had 3, yes 3 of those in my 95k hand stretch at 5/10. needless to say it didnt help the 'ol win rate much.

why are u at the 15/30 table?

[Victor]

yea, it was me. i had 50k hands at like 2.75.

since i posted that ive had over 20k at about -.9.

i changed my play some so that i wasnt so aggro especially in ep preflop. i also, tightened up some after the flop. maybe, i need to go back to being a lag. i basically took the advice of the posters which made sense.

my fear is that ive forgot how to play and have fallen into bad habits and "monsters under the bed syndrome"

[ QUOTE ]
but if ur having a 20k breakeven streak, lol, i had 3, yes 3 of those in my 95k hand stretch at 5/10. needless to say it didnt help the 'ol win rate much.



[/ QUOTE ]

well, i guess its good to know that these swings are real and likely.

[arkady]

forget the other posters. you did something that worked nicely for you. sustaining that kind of rate over 50k hands is indicative of a system that works.

granted u could have been running real well back then and running real bad now, but go back to being a lag. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
forget the other posters. you did something that worked nicely for you. sustaining that kind of rate over 50k hands is indicative of a system that works.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, it isnt. There is 1/3 that he will 1bb off, 5% that he will 2BB off from true winrate. I also won 2.5BB my first 60K at 10/20, then its been a struggle for 30K. And its not because I forgot how to play or changed anything substantial.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

There is 1/3 that he will 1bb off, 5% that he will 2BB off from true winrate.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you got those numbers.

With observed mean of 2.75BB/100 over 50k hands, and assuming a standard deviation of 16BB/100 which is about typical, the chance his real win rate is < 1.75BB/100 is only 9%. And < 0.75BB/100 has only a 0.3% chance.

Guy.

[Jeff W]

If you think about his line more deeply, you will see that it is very effective against aggressive players.

There is a class of players who will try to take away pots when you check the turn or the river. Against these players, check-raising strong hands eliminates your positional disadvantage and shows a profit over betting out.

This is a good example of looking past ABC play and adapting your lines to take advantage of your opponent's weaknesses.

[Jeff W]

Take a week off.

[tolbiny]

"or maybe i was just drunk, on tilt, and spewing chips."

You only tilt when you are sober, and you know it.

[tolbiny]

I've been trying to get him to take some time off for a week now, Vic can be pretty stubborn.

[cartman]

I agree. I remember thinking at the time that, against me, his line was excellent, but that it would not be the best choice against a less aggressive player.

Cartman

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think about his line more deeply, you will see that it is very effective against aggressive players.

There is a class of players who will try to take away pots when you check the turn or the river. Against these players, check-raising strong hands eliminates your positional disadvantage and shows a profit over betting out.

This is a good example of looking past ABC play and adapting your lines to take advantage of your opponent's weaknesses.

[/ QUOTE ]

*nodsnodsnods*

I like this play, do it all the time against aggressive folk.

[kiddo]

1 standardeviation is about 2/3 of population, 2 standarddeviations ivncludes about 95% of population. I recall he was really aggressive playing something like vpip 35% with, as I guess, pretty high SD - or what this another poster? Squareroot of 500 is 22, so if his SD is a bit over normal he isnt to far from 1BB/SD?

But this was not my main point, my thinking was that u cant use the first 50K and the winrate u had then and the winrate the next 25K when u changed your style as an argument for saying that the posters saying what he should change were wrong. I didnt change my style but still had this dip (or a bigger dip).

Also, I have a feeling that all players that have played for a few yers will have bigger dips then SD and winrate tells us because there a lot of other factors then just this equation. Some of us will have it directly, some will have a good run and then dip.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
. I recall he was really aggressive playing something like vpip 35%

[/ QUOTE ]

naw, im only like 22% vpip with a pfr of 16%.

anyway, thanks for the comments. my post wasnt really constructive, just another knee-jerk bitchin post. yall, took it seriously, tho, and offered insight and thats appreciated.

it seems these swings are normal, so im gonna sack up, and quit whining from now on and be proactive.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

1 standardeviation is about 2/3 of population, 2 standarddeviations ivncludes about 95% of population.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but that's two-sided, and we're only worried about being worse than the observed mean. But yes, if his SD was 22BB/100 there'd be a 16% chance of 1.75BB/100 winrate or lower. Still this is a lot less scary than your original numbers made it sound, and 22BB/100 is huuuuge SD. 16 is more common.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I have a feeling that all players that have played for a few yers will have bigger dips then SD and winrate tells us because there a lot of other factors then just this equation


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right.

There are two issues: does the central limit theorem apply to poker, i.e. do things line up like a normal distribution eventually or not; and if so, how many hands before it kicks in?

I started a thread about this a few months ago. We didn't solve the problem I don't think, but people seemed to agree that distribution of poker results would have fatter tails than the normal distribution might suggest over the kinds of samples we usually see.

Guy.