Is it possible...

[ceskylev]

to have a swing like this and be playing well enough to win long-term at Party 2/4? Or maybe I should ask if it's realistic.

Over about 4500 hands I'm down over 170BB. I know that's not any kind of record, but this is my first shot at 2/4 since reading SSHE. I'm more than frustrated.

I was winning at a good clip (3.8 BB/100) for about 8000 hands, and now I'm tanking. I didn't expect that rate to hold, but I felt like I was playing good poker in addition to running good. After my last -60BB session I'm starting to expect to lose, which I know is deadly.

During this particular mess, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, KQs, suited aces A9 and under, and pairs 99 and lower are all big fat losers, and losing half the bankroll has me thinking of moving down to 1/2 *again* where I'm a consistent winner over 60 or 70K hands.

Yes, the 2/4 sample sizes are too small. Yes, anything can happen over 10, 20, 30K hands. No, you guys don't know if I'm a good player or not. But if anyone make an effort at the following questions, even in the abstract, I'd be grateful.

How big, in your estimation, is the jump from full ring Party 1/2 to Party 2/4?

Should most 1/2 winners (say 2- 2.5 BB/100) be able to make that jump?

Forget about me, what's the likelihood that a good player loses 170BB over only 4000 hands?

Thanks, folks,
-kd

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget about me, what's the likelihood that a good player loses 170BB over only 4000 hands?


[/ QUOTE ]

I've done it, but I suck.

[Chairman Wood]

Quit bitching. [ QUOTE ]
Over about 4500 hands I'm down over 170BB

[/ QUOTE ]
Happens all the time. Likelyhood? I don't know, but in about 110,000 hands I've had about 3 of them. Some may think I'm lucky.


[ QUOTE ]
How big, in your estimation, is the jump from full ring Party 1/2 to Party 2/4?


[/ QUOTE ]
Small, maybe a tad more aggresive

[MoreWineII]

It's not only possible, it happens all the time.

[ceskylev]

Sorry if it sounded like I was bitching. I honestly haven't been playing long enough to know if it's common to good players or a red flag that I'm in over my head. Could be both, I guess. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not only possible, it happens all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

And it sucks a lot harder at 5/10. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm more than frustrated.

After my last -60BB session I'm starting to expect to lose, which I know is deadly.

Forget about me, what's the likelihood that a good player loses 170BB over only 4000 hands?

Thanks, folks,
-kd

[/ QUOTE ]

When a good player gets frustrated and starts to expect to lose, dropping 170BBs is easy.

My suggestion: drop down to 1/2. NOT because you can't handle 2/4, but because you NEED to get your confidence back before you can start winning again. Creaming the 1/2 tables for a week or two might get you back in a winning frame of mind, and then when you next try the 2/4 tables and DON'T get bad luck, you won't create your own bad luck and find a way to lose.