Yet another push or fold post...

[suited_ace]

This is from a $10+1.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1535)
Hero (t600)
UTG (t555)
MP (t1820)
Button (t3490)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero?

[pbutkus]

i'm pushing
your chip stack is low, picking up the 200 chips gives you some folding equity. a lot of people complete w any 2 there and fold to a push. your stack can still do some damage if he calls and loses.

[wuwei]

Pushing is good for a few reasons here.

1. You'll likely take down the pot. Odds are, if he had a hand he wanted to play for all your chips, he would have raised.

2. You will be at t450 after the blinds go through. You are about to lose most/all of your FE when the blinds go up.

3. This sets a precedent that sb completion is unnaceptable to you, which may be handy as the game progresses.

[suited_ace]

Here's the thing: SB calls me with A6s, hits a 6 and I'm out. I usually make this push in a heartbeat, but I have been seeing that a lot of $11s players are calling the push in this spot. Sometimes I win the coin flip, sometimes I don't...

Should the reduced FE in this spot make me think twice in this spot?

[gasgod]

You mean push or check, don't you?

You probably have SB beat, and you need the t200 that's at stake. I would push. You might take it right now, and you have good chances if he calls.

I'm just a student hoping he's got one right ...


GG

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Should the reduced FE in this spot make me think twice in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on stack sizes, I think you have a lot of FE here - and it's definitely a lot more than you'll have the next time you push.

You need those chips. My senses tell me that a coin flip here is not a bad thing for you, although I could be wrong about that.

Unless I have a read that tells you his completion is worthy of caution, I'm pushing. Don't let the results color your judgement.

[The Yugoslavian]

Push...

Haven't you been listening to your coach?!?!?! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

You selected him for a reason didn't you?

Yugoslav

[suited_ace]

OK, I'll keep on pushing, then...

[Maulik]

push push push push reason being stack size relative to blinds.

[TruFloridaGator]

IMHO, Push it real good!

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
You need those chips. My senses tell me that a coin flip here is not a bad thing for you, although I could be wrong about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of my recent goals was to do more math and get some practice working out ICM calculations. Ideally I'll figure out where my senses are accurate, and identify areas where my gut tells me the wrong thing. Anyways... I decided to look at this hand.

It's a little messy because you have the option to check and see the flop, and this isn't a call or fold situation.

What I'm looking at is whether or not a race is in Hero's best interest. Your concern seems to be that you'll be called and end up in a race. So lets say that you somehow know your opponent has two overcards to your 33, and you know he never folds to your push.

Your equity in the prize pool if you "fold" is 8.4%. If you call, we're looking at:

.1799*.515 + .0923*.0061 + 0 = 9.3%

Thus, you gain .9% equity by taking the coin flip on this hand. Throw in your folding equity (which you clearly have some), and this is an easy push.

Comments are appreciated on math mistakes, logical mistakes, etc.